Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China

[FreeLancer]

Obviously, there's a balance between reassuring people about a potential crisis vs. scaring them shitless, but public pronouncements that contradict .gov experts' messaging is (fill in the blank) with a pandemic looming. 

[FreeLancer]

NYT:  Coronavirus may have spread in Washington State for weeks, researchers say.

Researchers who have examined the genomes of two coronavirus infections in Washington State say the similarities between the cases suggest the virus may have been spreading in the state for weeks.

Washington State had the first confirmed coronavirus case in the United States last month, in a patient from which health officials took a sample on Jan. 19. But another case that surfaced in the region this week probably descended from it, based on an analysis of the virus’s genetic sequence.

The findings suggest that the virus has been spreading in the community for close to six weeks, according to one of the scientists who compared the sequences, Trevor Bedford, an associate professor at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington.

If that is true, it could mean that anywhere from 150 to 1,500 people “have either been infected and recovered or currently are infected now,” said Mike Famulare, a principal research scientist at the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, Wash., who performed the analysis. Those cases, if they exist, have thus far been undetected.

Tip of the iceberg.....

[iam4liberty]

Obviously, there's a balance between reassuring people about a potential crisis vs. scaring them shitless, but public pronouncements that contradict .gov experts' messaging is (fill in the blank) with a pandemic looming.

It is best to take what agencies say with a grain of salt.  They are running fast and making a lot of unforced communication  errors.  An example is the CDC getting the gender of first US fatality wrong in briefings

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/02/29/coronavirus-lab-tests-fda-118316
Trump warns against panic amid news of first U.S. coronavirus death

During today's briefing, Trump identified the person who died in Washington state as a woman in her 50s — rather than a man, as later confirmed by federal and state health officials and Gov. Jay Inslee's office. In a tweet this afternoon, CDC Director Robert Redfield said his agency had "erroneously identified the patient as female" while briefing Trump and Pence.

It is stuff like this that shakes people confidence in the "experts".   Plus we have seen sizable differences between CDC, NIH, and state health orgs.  They are working with different fact sets in an evolving situation.  So, it is ok to point out speculations may be wrong.  Being honest grows confidence.  And given the over-the-top communications on recent minor outbreaks, a little balance in communication is beneficial.

[Redman]

Rice University in Houston has asked a small group of employees and students to self-quarantine after suspected exposure overseas.

 https://abc13.com/rice-university-fears-possible-coronavirus-exposure-/5977061/

Also the CDC has said it confirms 11 cases of the virus in Texas.

https://abc13.com/health/coronavirus-hits-several-in-texas-cdc-reports/5974908/

[iam4liberty]

https://huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5e5b13fbc5b6450a30bfb075/amp
FDA Expands Coronavirus Testing After CDC Glitches Undermine Fight Against Disease.
Testing logjam is keeping vital information from patients and health officials

[Hurricane]

If VP Pence does well at managing this crisis, it will make him look good in 2024.

[David in MN]

OK, time to call bullshit. If I believe the standard line the Chinese can't build hospitals fast enough and the Iranian government has been decimated yet the Brits who have survived shrug it off like a bad cold. Congrats Corona: You've done what SARS, Ebola, H1N1, and Spanish Flu couldn't get done. You're racist.

Every death in a 1st world country is either an elderly person or a person with underlying conditions or both. I can't for the life of me explain why this is a death sentence in China but in Japan you just hang out on the cruise ship for a couple weeks.

Something is not right with the published story. It's way creepy that during cold season we need to round up the people with the sniffles. And wouldn't you know Corona is just one of those magic diseases that can miraculously come back for a second round? Even being cured doesn't mean you're cured.

Way too much BS going on here.

[Morning Sunshine]

Way too much BS going on here.

yup

[FreeLancer]

BBC:  Coronavirus: 'Nothing ruled out' in government's virus battle tactics

Mr Hancock said the UK remained in the "containment" phase with 23 confirmed cases - but more are expected.

The government contingency plans, which will be published this week, include that newly-retired doctors and nurses could be asked to return to the NHS.

If the outbreak worsens, people could also be urged to work from home.

A minister in every government department will focus on tackling the virus, which causes the Covid-19 disease, while a team of experts will drive a public health campaign.

Asked if UK cities could be shut down, as has happened where the virus originated in China, Mr Hancock said: "There is clearly a huge economic and social downside to that. But we don't take anything off the table at this stage because you have to make sure you have all the tools available if that is what is necessary."

He added: "Under the worst-case scenario we would have to take some quite significant actions that would have social and economic disruption."

Emergency powers designed to restrict the virus if it became endemic would only be "temporary", Mr Hancock said - adding that it was "inevitable" the scale of the virus would worsen.

[FreeLancer]

Way too much BS going on here.

How do you determine if it's BS or the fog of war?

[David in MN]

How do you determine if it's BS or the fog of war?

Fair question. I hate to be so callous but it's numbers. Something happened in China. I don't know what. Once the disease expanded to first world countries the death rate dropped off remarkably quick. People without underlying conditions seem to be fine. In fact it seems to be nothing more than a bad cold to a lot of survivors.

It's a legit disease with great communicability but it just doesn't have legs. Italy is locked down with a few hundred cases and almost no deaths. And while they shut down tourism and schools they kept the trains running. The ports are open.

Something here just doesn't make sense. I'm not making a big conspiracy claim but Corona in California isn't Corona in China.

[mountainmoma]

Fair question. I hate to be so callous but it's numbers. Something happened in China. I don't know what. Once the disease expanded to first world countries the death rate dropped off remarkably quick. People without underlying conditions seem to be fine. In fact it seems to be nothing more than a bad cold to a lot of survivors.

It's a legit disease with great communicability but it just doesn't have legs. Italy is locked down with a few hundred cases and almost no deaths. And while they shut down tourism and schools they kept the trains running. The ports are open.

Something here just doesn't make sense. I'm not making a big conspiracy claim but Corona in California isn't Corona in China.

Italy has alot of deaths vs. the short time it has been there, and the trajectory is not looking good.  It is too early to tell that China is that different, although, as is stated earlier in this thread, there are a few notable differences in lifestyle (lack of heat/pollution/smoking, etc...) that could in and of themselves make a difference.  It is also possible that shady stuff happened within the outbreak, along the lines of never let a good crisis go to waste, so they could have easily done things to dissidents etc... without it being noticed while the virus was going on

It is way to early to tell about Corona in California.  You would have to compare how long it took china to get from the first officially acknowledged death to the height of their deaths.  On the plus side is the seasons changing in most of California already. SO, most virus' are not that active outside of winter here.  I would not be surprised if things slowed down here to get more infections in the fall.  We were in a heat wave the last couple of weeks, last week especially, way too hot. Well, it just cooled off, I will likely need to start heating again, so we will see.  But, as we are entering spring soon, virus' may calm down. We dont even know before now realy, as they did no testing.  Look how long it took to test that Vacaville patient, and that patient is in very serious condition.  And, right now, that is the BEST care anyone is ever to get !  An early patient of a new virus,  just the BEST medical care, lots of attention.  More deaths happen if and when a medical system gets overwhelmed.  That patient is intubated.  How many can we take care of at that level of care ?  That is the issue.  If we can slow it down, and not overwhelm the hospitals, then yes, we should get much better outcomes than China.  The going into spring in California may slow it down in California. 

[Stwood]

How do you determine if it's BS or the fog of war?

Coin toss?? 

[mountainmoma]

Fair question. I hate to be so callous but it's numbers. Something happened in China. I don't know what. Once the disease expanded to first world countries the death rate dropped off remarkably quick. People without underlying conditions seem to be fine. In fact it seems to be nothing more than a bad cold to a lot of survivors.

It's a legit disease with great communicability but it just doesn't have legs. Italy is locked down with a few hundred cases and almost no deaths. And while they shut down tourism and schools they kept the trains running. The ports are open.

Something here just doesn't make sense. I'm not making a big conspiracy claim but Corona in California isn't Corona in China.

You have not been [aying attention to the rapid changes in Italy.

after an earlier warning to avoid non-essential travel to all of Italy, where more than 1,694 cases were confirmed through Sunday -- a 50 percent jump from just 24 hours earlier.

"Reconsider travel to Italy due to a recent outbreak of COVID-19," the earlier advisory stated. "There is an ongoing outbreak of COVID-19 caused by a novel (new) coronavirus in Italy. Many cases of COVID-19 have been associated with travel to or from mainland China or close contact with a travel-related case, but sustained community spread has been reported in Italy."

Five more people infected with the virus have died, bringing the deaths in Italy to 34, of which 83 have fully recovered.

I put "italy corona virus" into my search engine..... https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-outbreak-italy-american-travel-state-department-warning

It is the mathematical progression, this last day the reported cases doubled and 5 more deaths.  Those five deaths are people who have been sick most likely 2 weeks.... so monday will will see --- deaths, tuesday --- deaths....

The head of Italy’s Civil Protection Agency said the cumulative number of confirmed cases of the virus had jumped to 1,694 from 1,128 on Saturday, virtually all of them coming to light since Feb. 20 in the worst such contagion in Europe.

Of that number, 83 people had fully recovered, while 140 patients were in intensive care. The vast majority of those who have tested positive have few, if any symptoms.

that is 34 deaths and 140 patients in intensive care  and all of this SINCE FEB 20th.   That is 9 days  obviously they contracted it before this 9 days, and were infectious and spreading it

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-italy-idUSKBN20O257

[FreeLancer]

It's a legit disease with great communicability but it just doesn't have legs.

But the mild nature of the disease in the majority of the population just makes it all the more difficult to contain.  That's why were stuck in this mess, because the guy who transmits it to you has the sniffles and isn't bleeding out of their eyeballs.

If a third of the country catches an easily transmissible disease that doesn't appear to be much different than a bad cold, yet 20% of them require hospitalization and 5% of those people still go on to die from it, we could be looking at a 1 million excess deaths. 

And that's if we could manage to scrounge up a enough ventilators to treat 20 million cases of pneumonia.  Which we can't, because we've got less than 100,000 ventilators in this country.  That means were looking at a triage situation where utilitarian ethical decisions get made about who will benefit society the most by getting the respirator necessary to save their life.  That's a really shitty situation for everyone.

Frankly, a lot of older people with chronic medical conditions could miss out on another decade or two of life because there's no hospital capacity, especially when this thing gets into the rural areas that are already limited.  The AARP crowd is going to get hit hardest with this thing, especially the ones in retirement communities and nursing homes, where it's going to spread like wildfire because the single mother healthcare workers can't afford to miss a paycheck so they go in to work with a "bad cold" that's potentially fatal to the people they're taking care of. 

Something here just doesn't make sense. I'm not making a big conspiracy claim but Corona in California isn't Corona in China.

I can see things becoming worse here than in China. 

Our local and federal governments are already squabbling about where to house cruise ship evacuees.  If we do get Wuhan-level cases in the tens of thousands, what are the chances federal, state, and local governments can coordinate an appropriate and timely response, especially if a large part of the country thinks we're just dealing with a bad cold or a hoax/conspiracy theory designed to throw an election by tanking the economy?

What's the likelihood the US can build a couple pop-up hospitals in 10 days outside of Seattle and march 25k medical troops in to staff them?



With our current level of public health resources in this country, give me an Ebola outbreak to manage any day over COVID-19.

[David in MN]

It's not deadly outside of China. And we'd be stupid to believe the Chinese can't comprehend the ultrashort indices or the VIX or VXX. Somebody beyond me made a ton of money off an illness that is nothing but sniffles that the Chinese seem to have made up. So just to be clear they sat on the data while having access to our stock market...

I stand by it: there's a lot here that makes no sense. But as a telegraphed punch I've made a lot of money on it. Think of me as evil as a human can be. But do the Chinese government types think different?

Those of us with no souls make money by being a few moves ahead.

[mountainmoma]

It's not deadly outside of China.

? 

But I just showed you the incredibly rising death rates from it in Italy

And Freelancer just explained why he is worried it could be worse here

So, is it just your spider sense that feels something is off ?  Or, why do you say "no deaths" when there are clearly alot of deaths for how many have it ?

[Mr. Bill]

Researchers who have examined the genomes of two coronavirus infections in Washington State say the similarities between the cases suggest the virus may have been spreading in the state for weeks. ...

The findings suggest that the virus has been spreading in the community for close to six weeks...

If that is true, it could mean that anywhere from 150 to 1,500 people “have either been infected and recovered or currently are infected now,”...

Huh.  Now I'm wondering if my wife and I really did have it.  I've heard of zero reported cases here in southeast WA, but I don't think anybody is being tested for it either.

Probably we got poor protection from the flu vaccine and caught Influenza A, but if it were mild COVID-19, how would we ever find out?

[FreeLancer]

Probably we got poor protection from the flu vaccine and caught Influenza A, but if it were mild COVID-19, how would we ever find out?

If we develop sufficient antibodies in response to the infection, probably we will be able to find out, but there's some evidence that people are being reinfected with COVID so the state of lasting immunity is kind of up in the air.


I'm getting over a bit of sniffles and cough this weekend, no fever, don't feel that bad.  But if I get up tomorrow and I'm still coughing a little bit, I have to decide whether to go into my local state building and subject my coworkers, one who's recovering from cancer treatments, to my "bad cold."

[FreeLancer]

Public health leaders in King County, Wash., said a man in his 70s with underlying health conditions died on Saturday at EvergreenHealth hospital in Kirkland.

[iam4liberty]

Huh.  Now I'm wondering if my wife and I really did have it.  I've heard of zero reported cases here in southeast WA, but I don't think anybody is being tested for it either.

Probably we got poor protection from the flu vaccine and caught Influenza A, but if it were mild COVID-19, how would we ever find out?

This is one reason why we need to decentralize diagnostic testing.  The technology is coming and coronavirus may be the impetus to make it happen.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200206134748.htm
Portable lab you plug into your phone can diagnose illnesses like coronavirus

[FreeLancer]

NYT:  Death Near Seattle Adds to Signs Coronavirus Is Spreading in U.S.

With testing now ramping up, the Seattle suburb of Kirkland has become an epicenter of both illness and fear, much of it focused on a nursing facility where six coronavirus cases have been confirmed and many more residents and employees have complained of illness.

Health authorities in King County, Wash., announced on Sunday evening that one of the six, a resident of the nursing home, had died of the virus at the EvergreenHealth hospital in Kirkland, and that three more were in critical condition. The death was the second on U.S. soil from the virus; the first also occurred at that hospital.

One-quarter of Kirkland’s firefighters were in quarantine on Sunday because they had been to the nursing facility. A nearby college spent the day cleansing its campus because students had visited the nursing home. The hospital has asked visitors to stay away.

Beyond Kirkland, the King County authorities announced two additional coronavirus cases earlier in the day that were unrelated to the nursing home; those patients were in critical condition at hospitals in Seattle and Renton. Officials were scrambling to assess the risks emerging in schools, medical centers and the major employers that call the region home.

The fear and confusion at the nursing facility and throughout the county presented a vivid and disturbing picture of how much uncertainty surrounds the virus and how many people have the potential to be affected.

The nursing facility in Kirkland, run by Life Care Centers of America, is full of elderly residents who can be especially vulnerable to respiratory illnesses. Records show that the center has a recent history of illness outbreaks and of difficulty following infection control precautions.

Relatives who had recently visited the facility said it had been coping with illness among residents and staff in recent days, and told all its residents on Friday to stay in their rooms. For a facility of communal living — with a shared dining facility, group movie nights and friends who visit with one another in the halls — that decision prompted concerns among residents and families.

Coming to suburban communities and nursing homes near you.....

[FreeLancer]

How Coronavirus Kills: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) & Treatment:  https://youtu.be/okg7uq_HrhQ

[FreeLancer]

Two cases of the virus were identified in Florida late Sunday night, prompting the state to declare a public health emergency.

In an executive order, Gov.  Ron DeSantis said two “presumptive positive” cases were found in state’s Gulf Coast: one in Manatee County, home to Sarasota, and the other in Hillsborough County, home to Tampa.

[Morning Sunshine]

Huh.  Now I'm wondering if my wife and I really did have it.  I've heard of zero reported cases here in southeast WA, but I don't think anybody is being tested for it either.

Probably we got poor protection from the flu vaccine and caught Influenza A, but if it were mild COVID-19, how would we ever find out?

my thoughts exactly.  It was definitely the weirdest bad cold/mild flu I have seen in my family; very different from anything else we have had before.  But no cases in Utah, so obviously we didn't have it last week.

[Mr. Bill]

I mistakenly thought all the COVID-19 viruses currently in circulation are identical.  Nope.  There's a whole family tree of them, branching from an initial ancestor around Nov-Dec 2019.



Here is a tool for viewing the tree:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?c=country&d=tree&p=full

It's interactive and complicated, and I've only been using it a few minutes so don't ask me for instructions.

But anyway, this shows that we are not necessarily getting exactly the same virus strains that knocked out Wuhan.  It's probably too early to hypothesize that less-virulent strains are circulating worldwide, but I'd like to believe that.  Evolution pushes things towards the strain that spreads the best, not the strain that kills the best.  If the viruses spread better by causing milder symptoms, fewer quarantines, and fewer deaths, then those are the strains that will thrive.  This could explain how the initial Wuhan outbreak was so deadly, but many of the later cases have a better survival rate.

Well, it's something to hope for.

[Greekman]

OK, time to call bullshit. If I believe the standard line the Chinese can't build hospitals fast enough and the Iranian government has been decimated yet the Brits who have survived shrug it off like a bad cold. Congrats Corona: You've done what SARS, Ebola, H1N1, and Spanish Flu couldn't get done. You're racist.

Every death in a 1st world country is either an elderly person or a person with underlying conditions or both. I can't for the life of me explain why this is a death sentence in China but in Japan you just hang out on the cruise ship for a couple weeks.

it so happened that yesterday i requested a copy of an not yet fully released of a paper through researchgate.com
I was searching for Covid-19 transmission modeling essays. What caught my eye was that they mentioned that the virus would reach its peak within a range of 4-5 months in the UK, in the brief summary.
I think it is safe to resume the virus was festering way before December in China. (do not forget that we are expecting a geometric mode of propagation).

Secondly, it is widely known that the Chinese still practice "magic potion" (traditional) medicine. That means that by the time the infected turn to hospitals (if ever) they are practical knocking on heaven's gates.
(believe me, my father thinks this and I have seen a cold lasting 40 days)

[Greekman]

Ok I found the paper elsewhere

A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing
(not yet peer reviewed)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566v1.full.pdf.

exerpts

The
model in its current form predicts the total number of infections in the community rather than
diagnosed cases.

in England and Wales has the potential to result in a synchronised
outbreak that peaks at around 4 months following the start of person-to-person transmission.
Our findings suggest that the height of the epidemic and the attack rate is highly dependent on
seasonality of transmission and that even small changes in transmission risk can lead to large
changes in attack rate due to the spatial disaggregation of the population at risk.

We predict that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of
person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming
biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists
from February, we predict the epidemic peak would occur in June.

Assuming no difference in transmission rate during the year leads to a
single large epidemic after approximately 4 months (June time if transmission starts in
February), as above. With a 25% reduction in transmission the epidemic is smaller and peaks
later, reducing the overall attack rate by 20%. A 50% reduction in transmission results in a
smaller epidemic before the summer, followed by a resurgence in cases in the following winter.
The attack rate is 10% less than a non-seasonal epidemic. A 75% reduction in transmission
over the summer resulted in a delayed large outbreak, but with a similar attack rate. If
transmission decreases to zero over the summer then the resulting outbreak is much reduced,
with an attack rate of less than 1%

The attack
rate for best-guess parameters had a median of 45799874 (81.67% range 81.64-81.69), with a
peak incidence median 1,116,692.

Can someone put the latter exerpt in plain English?

[surfivor]

A computer model is going to predict that the virus will peak in June ?  Isn’t that far outside of the typical flu season?  I guess I wouldn’t assume it’s a real flu but perhaps some bio engineered thing but then computer models can also be made to predict anything as well

Flu season is the time of year when you are most likely to get sick from the flu. In general, flu season can start anytime in late fall, peak in mid-to-late winter (usually January or February), and continue through early spring. On average, flu season lasts about 13 weeks.

[FreeLancer]

Secondly, it is widely known that the Chinese still practice "magic potion" (traditional) medicine. That means that by the time the infected turn to hospitals (if ever) they are practical knocking on heaven's gates.

There’s a good chance that the exotic animals they import to make their magic potions are at the origin of this pandemic, too.