Things seem to be escalating, a little:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/05/03/ban-assault-weapons-buy-them-back-prosecute-offenders-column/570590002/
Don't want to turn them in? Following up on I4L's post, well they've got a plan. Here's the ensuing twitter-spatter:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2018/11/16/eric-swalwell-if-gun-owners-defy-assault-weapons-ban-the-government-has-nukes/
The rhetoric is really heating up. True, a D-CA congressman spouting off on USA Today and twitter is not the same as having something signed into law, but lunatics almost always talk about the crimes they're contemplating before actually committing them. The things Swalwell "jokes" about in that twitter exchange have no place in domestic discourse, and at some level must be taken as actual threats. At the very least, they reveal the mindset we're dealing with here.
I truly expect the rhetoric to start pumping out very soon. The NRA is in a questionable financial position, allegedly. I think we'll start to see the mailers coming in sometime in the next two weeks where the above topics will be screamed from the rooftops. Expect to see something on par with the early-90's "JackBooted Thugs" ads.
Again, there are other factors to consider, especially in the not-too-distant future. The first, of course, is the perception of relatively uninformed potential buyers resulting from the above-mentioned rhetoric. Everytime there's been a scare in the past, Johnny Average Conservative leverages his house and paycheck to snag on a couple of AR's ". . .before the ban." This causes shortages. Inevitably, they buy too late and at inflated prices. . .you usually see the same guys at gunshows a few months later trying to sell those same guns because they overextended themselves.
Additionally, consider the very real possibility of the military going away from the 5.56x45 and 7.62x51 rounds. One of the reasons that there's comparatively inexpensive ammo in those two calibers is that they are military rounds and the companies can charge less because it's cheaper to make extra rounds when they've filled their gubmint purchase orders. Yes, those two, in addition to a few other calibers, are the primary calibers of most MSR's (a term I apply to most military-style semi-autos), but the shooting public does not go through enough ammo to support that same high-volume production which reduce the prices.
Also, most of the proposed legislation should not make it through both houses intact. In fact, I truly do not expect to see anything real coming through on the federal level for the next two years. Unlike the author of the first article, I really don't see Trump signing any federal bans or severely restrictive legislation, even if he does get re-elected. HOWEVER, on the state level? We're already seeing the additional restrictions and taxes in several states, e.g., Kalifornia. I don't expect to see the NRA doing much at the state level, either. They have a proven track record of begging for money and loosening the purse strings only occasionally for the state fights. IMNSHO, they should have emptied the bank back during the Colorado magazine ban and supporting pro-2A candidates inside the state. That would have sent a very clear message to the anti's as well as members and potential members. (Sorry NRA-supporters, the truth hurts. Seems they prefer their $5k suits and $100k personal vehicles as well as twice-annual hunting trips down to South America and elsewhere.)
We've seen an involuntary purge of gun manufacturers as well as a consolidation of many of the still-existing manufacturers being purchased and questionably run by a small number of investors (e.g. American Outdoor, Cerberus Capital Management, Kahr Firearms, et al). This has led to major shake-ups in the industry in quality control, management, etc. The state of the industry is (and this is my personal opinion) the shakiest it's ever been. One good thing that happened when the second panic of the last administration happened was that we found out that a lot of smaller manufacturers popped up to fill the void. One of the reasons the previous panic was so devastating ($3,000 base AR's, $30 aluminum AR mags, no spare parts to be found, etc.) was that no one was prepared. While we did see a spike in prices, it was short-lived until every Swinging Richard with a CNC machine started churning out lowers and uppers. Sadly, it was also during this point that the main manufacturers and distributors had their stocks emptied and dealers couldn't buy anything to put on their shelves. This led to the demise of many smaller FFL's who weren't in the position to ride out the interruption.
I don't know what will happen this time. The liberals seem very confident and motivated to drive their agenda forward despite the questionable possibility of success. I truly am concerned about the will happen following November 2020. So much so that I'm considering shifting much of my near-future investments into firearms and especially AR lowers, uppers, and parts kits.
I hope I'm wrong, but the great thing is that you seldom lose money on guns.
The Professor
