DOW broke 17,000

[endurance]

I think it's going to go way up tomorrow. Buy the dip and hold on.

You win on the opening.

[Sailor]

As long as it moves, any direction I am good.  +4.09% acct balance today.

[Cedar]

Closed Tuesday at -204.91 ( down 1.29%)

Cedar

[Cedar]

Elsewhere today:
Shanghai SE Composite Index    China    -244.94    -8.26%    
Nikkei 225                                   Japan    -733.98    -3.96%    
Brazil Bovespa Stock Index           Brazil    -1,174.79  -2.57%    


Cedar

[Cedar]

China shares fail to lift on the central bank's rate cut. The index had already fallen about 16% this week, sending shockwaves through global markets.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34059482

Cedar

[David in MN]

I was too busy chatting with my dad and playing with the baby to trade...  (here's to good problems). Had I been at the desk scanning "most active" Monday at 9:30 am I'd be done for the year.

With all the up/down (that seems to me like computerized trade fluctuations) I've seen my buy and hold portfolio be pretty flat. For all the panic it seems the disciplined value investors wouldn't even notice. If you've been buying "blue chips" at 10x forward P/E with ~3% yield you're still sitting happy at proper valuation.

Odd how a few of the wild swings were in banking.

[Cedar]

This morning.. Fears of a crash landing in China's economy sent stocks diving around the world on Monday ...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-set-for-tumble-at-open-as-china-fears-return-2016-01-04

10:51am -396.83 (2.28%)
10:55am -418.71
10:55am -425.86
11:02am -456.10


Closed now, but what they have closed at today
Australia      -21.80    
China      -242.92    
Hong Kong -587.28    
India      -494.19    
Japan      -582.73    
Taiwan      -223.80    
England     -144.36    
France    -127.52    
Germany    -459.69    
Switzerland -178.13    

Cedar

[Cedar]

DOW PREMARKET (before the bell rings ) for Thursday 1/7/2016
2:22am   -316.00
2:23am   -392.00
2:25am   -402.00
2:31am   -413.00
2:32am   -414.00
2:37am   -429.00
2:40am   -430.00
2:40am   -436.00
2:41am   -439.00

Today in Asia..
Leading European share markets fell 3% after trading was suspended on the Chinese markets for the second day running. Shares in China fell by 7%, triggering the "circuit-breaker" rule which is designed to stop panic selling. That came in the first 30 minutes of trading, making it China's shortest trading day on record. The slump prompted renewed panic on global market.

Other Asian markets closed at today:
Australia    -109.20    
China    -236.84    
Hong Kong -647.47    
India    -554.50    
Japan    -423.98    
Taiwan    -138.33    

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKBN0UL02H20160107

Cedar

[TNVolunteer]

Should make for an interesting day. 

[David in MN]

I'm about 15% cash and looking... I don't know how a fall in Chinese raw material demand has any effect on American grocery retail. Wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the market bounce after some irrational selloffs.

FWIW I actually have taken a defensive position as of December preferring predictable boring businesses like Exxon (XOM) and Consolidated Edison (ED) with solid dividends.

Not advice. Not adviser.

[TNVolunteer]

Chinese raw material demand used to be an decent indicator of what the rest of world was buying and general global economic activity, or so I've been told.  I think now it is also an indicator of how their own economy is doing.   Appears to be the opposite of the rising tide lifting all boats as it pertains to theAmerican Grocery sector. 

Oil prices haven't found their level yet either.  Hit 10 year lows yesterday and suspect it may have yet a bit further to fall before bouncing back to whatever the market thinks its value is  and then starting a slow crawl back up over the remainder of the year.  Of course the Saudis and Iranians are doing the whole Shia v Sunni thing right now so will be interesting to see how that plays out in the oil market, if it does at all.

[bigbear]

China removed the 'circuit breaker' rules in their market today.  That update goes into effect tomorrow.  I wonder how much of the sell off was preparation for no floor in China's stock market tomorrow...   

[Beetle]

Time to buy the dip!!!!

[endurance]

Wow!  Oil is down to $33.19 a barrel right now.  Unreal!

If the Saudi's continue with their plan to drive the shale oil folks out of business, they're going to bankrupt themselves.

[FreeLancer]

If the Saudi's continue with their plan to drive the shale oil folks out of business, they're going to bankrupt themselves.

We can always hope.

[Chemsoldier]

We can always hope.

Couldn't happen to nicer people...

[Cedar]

Close today DOW 16,346.45    Price decrease -167.65

I have no idea how detrimental that India's stock market is, but it went down -1,183.21    

Cedar

[TNVolunteer]

If the Saudi's continue with their plan to drive the shale oil folks out of business, they're going to bankrupt themselves.

It is also messing with a lot other "friends" as well.

[gopack84]

Speaking of "couldn't happen to nicer people"...

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/01/11/19-big-companies-profits-vanish/78633406/

Materials companies are also getting hammered as a global economic slowdown is reducing prices and demand for many supplies. Monsanto, a seed and agricultural products company, is expected to lose 23 cents a share on an adjusted basis during the quarter, down from a profit of 47 cents a share in the same period in 2014.

[Cedar]

DOW premarket this morning is -173.00 Opens in 16 minutes.

Europe markets close in 2 hours, but are all triple digit down. India was over -300 down.

From a headline this morning:
Global Currencies Collapsing
http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/08/news/economy/dollar-global-currency-winners-losers/index.html

EDIT: At opening bell, the DOW dropped -223.12
Now at - 274.14

Cedar

[Alan Georges]

Small closing rally, ended at 16,027, down a net 178.  Not a catastrophe, but... well, it's hard to see any upsides for the near future.

[David in MN]

Anybody else slowly buying oil companies? Traditionally in bears we load up on consumer goods but food and durables have been in a slump. It's hard noit to buy up oil stocks when they go on sale.

Well I guess I was 18 hours off the bottom in XOM. If you've been riding it from $68 to $85 with me (ignoring the dividend) I'll take that 10% finder's fee right about now  ...

The DJIA is eying 18,000 this morning.

[Smurf Hunter]

Well I guess I was 18 hours off the bottom in XOM. If you've been riding it from $68 to $85 with me (ignoring the dividend) I'll take that 10% finder's fee right about now  ...

The DJIA is eying 18,000 this morning.

I re-allocated some of my IRA.  This last time around didn't get any XOM, but got some RGR in the low $60 range.  During election years, the fear of an anti-gun candidate usually causes some panic buying.  I don't own enough to change my life, but if I can flip it for a small gain it's an ego boost.

[Tyler Durden]

Well I guess I was 18 hours off the bottom in XOM. If you've been riding it from $68 to $85 with me (ignoring the dividend) I'll take that 10% finder's fee right about now  ...

The DJIA is eying 18,000 this morning.

I was about to buy COP when it was around $32 per share, but opted for CNP instead, which has gone virtually nowhere.

[David in MN]

I just get irritated by investors who seem to "know" there is no future in the stock market, whine and wail that they can't see opportunity, continually tell the few of us with the stones to face the fight we're wrong, and that I'm a buffoon to try "timing the market" as if there aren't market circumstances that favor certain industries.

I'm about 15% cash and looking... I don't know how a fall in Chinese raw material demand has any effect on American grocery retail. Wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the market bounce after some irrational selloffs.

FWIW I actually have taken a defensive position as of December preferring predictable boring businesses like Exxon (XOM) and Consolidated Edison (ED) with solid dividends.

Not advice. Not adviser.

Yeah that meant I bought General Mills (GIS) at $54.50. Do your homework on where GIS, XOM, and ED are today. I guess it's just random luck that people like me can make money doing the investment game. It's not like we have endless files of analysis in Excel and Matlab.

Just to put it on the table, my infant daughter "manages" a $20k portfolio. Other girls play Disney, mine owns Disney. And at a 1.4% dividend and all the Star Wars you can dream of she's not a princess; she's a baller.

I guess this post is 120% snark. But you can read the posts of doom and gloom and mine about what to buy and when. See who was right. If you followed my thoughts you're sitting on a nice gain. If you balked at opportunity, well...

Again, sorry to be cruel. But there's that really scary thing when you're right...

[FreeLancer]

I'm somewhere in the middle when it comes to stock market investing. 

I've got nothing but admiration for successful traders, but I have neither the stones, the smarts, the time, or the desire to actively participate in the stock market, and I also lack confidence in my ability to identify consistently top-performing professionals to do it for me (actually I trust them less than I trust myself, but I'm trying to be charitable).  However, I also recognize that there are superior returns to be had in the market over the long-term, and to capture a good chunk of that return I've been buying and holding (mind-numbingly boring) index funds for 20+ years.  And I'm not changing anything.

Could I do better as an active investor?  Possibly, but only with much time, and effort (to make up for my lack of skill and smarts), as well as luck.  Could I do worse?  Definitely.  All you have to do is look at the performance of the overwhelming majority of actively traded funds when compared to their benchmark indexes.  Then look at the real returns earned from putting money under a mattress in a bank.

I'm not saying this to be argumentative or bend any of the active traders out of shape, but rather to show those sitting on the sidelines that there's a middle path.  Saving and investing for the time when we are no longer able to work is a vital prep, in my opinion, and that goal is difficult to achieve without the benefit of compounded stock market returns.

For shits and giggles, check out the Warren Buffet vs the Hedge Fund bet:  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-will-win-his-big-hedge-fund-bet-2016-02-18

[David in MN]

I'm somewhere in the middle when it comes to stock market investing. 

I've got nothing but admiration for successful traders, but I have neither the stones, the smarts, the time, or the desire to actively participate in the stock market, and I also lack confidence in my ability to identify consistently top-performing professionals to do it for me (actually I trust them less than I trust myself, but I'm trying to be charitable).  However, I also recognize that there are superior returns to be had in the market over the long-term, and to capture a good chunk of that return I've been buying and holding (mind-numbingly boring) index funds for 20+ years.  And I'm not changing anything.

Could I do better as an active investor?  Possibly, but only with much time, and effort (to make up for my lack of skill and smarts), as well as luck.  Could I do worse?  Definitely.  All you have to do is look at the performance of the overwhelming majority of actively traded funds when compared to their benchmark indexes.  Then look at the real returns earned from putting money under a mattress in a bank.

I'm not saying this to be argumentative or bend any of the active traders out of shape, but rather to show those sitting on the sidelines that there's a middle path.  Saving and investing for the time when we are no longer able to work is a vital prep, in my opinion, and that goal is difficult to achieve without the benefit of compounded stock market returns.

For shits and giggles, check out the Warren Buffet vs the Hedge Fund bet:  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-will-win-his-big-hedge-fund-bet-2016-02-18

I can simply say 100% agree.

Those of us in the market trenches are fighting tooth and nail for the best investment. It's a hard game. I will gloat when I win...

I am furious over the bank controlled funds that have load, don't pay dividends, and require notice to move YOUR money. I'm not as pissed over well run funds like those from Vanguard. Think through who has control of YOUR money.

[FreeLancer]

It's a hard game. I will gloat when I win...

This is not a criticism, more of a broader rhetorical question regarding the determination of valid endpoints when it comes to any type of preparation for the future.  It's something I don't always have good answers for in my own life.

If you cashed out at the peak 8 years ago, before the crash, were you a winner then because you timed it perfectly?  Are you winning now?  Will you still be winning in 20 years when you want to retire?  Will your post-retirement performance stay ahead of inflation?  How much can you rely on past performance when trying to predict the future?

It seems like you rarely (never?) get to that place in life where you can a draw a line in the sand and say, "That's it, my plan was good, I executed flawlessly, I win.....and now I'll ride off into the sunset and live happily ever after."  You still have to figure out what you're going to do tomorrow and then crawl out of bed and try to make it happen.  There's no resting on your laurels, there's always that specter of life kicking you in the nuts and saying, "But what have you done lately?"

[David in MN]

Every trader knows his number. I have more respect than to speak about it publicly. When I hit my number those in the vicinity will be enjoying a box of La Gloria Cubana cigars (my favorite) and a bottle of Kelt Christopher Columbus cognac. And I'll live out my days fat and happy on predictable CDs.

I'm not Gordon Gecko. My investments are not some black hole that eats my soul. They work for me.

What I'm getting at is the absolute furor I feel when I talk about trading. Gunsmiths know about guns, butchers know about meat, bakers know how to make bread but traders are just lucky assholes who do something meaningless that all the rest of us could have done if we only cared. Aesop could fill a book of modern investors who seem to go from "not possible" to "you're lucky" while ignoring the work put in.

I'm coming off a little harsh and I know it. I'm not even saying I made the best predictions. There's always a better investment. But I was kinda right. I usually don't talk about investing in this forum because it's not the place. Making money doesn't have the same sex appeal of MREs or learning how to sharpen a camp axe with one's teeth. I wish that everyone here had the guile of Crassus but alas...

[FreeLancer]

If it's making you money, who cares what people think about your investing methods?

While I can't go as far as endorsing the methods of Crassus, I agree that making and managing money is an incredibly valuable survival skill that is underappreciated by the majority of survivalists/preppers.