Author Topic: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)  (Read 375613 times)

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #780 on: July 19, 2014, 03:58:15 PM »
Cedar, nosy question.  Do you buy wheat berries (either white or red) and grind them to make flour?  I haven't done it yet.  But it seems like it would be worth the money to buy the bulk wheat and get a quality grinder at this point - considering how high the prices have risen and how high they are  probably going to go.

No. I put up mostly white wheat berries (as that is what my side of Oregon grows, Soft White)and cook them like rice and put into soups. If pinch comes to shove, I can get them ground for breads.. But I have other options.

Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #781 on: July 19, 2014, 04:11:48 PM »
Jet Crash Over Ukraine Might Spur Wheat Price Gains
Wheat prices soar as air crash fuels Ukraine fears
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/wheat-prices-soar-as-air-crash-fuels-ukraine-fears--7278.html

Wheat headed for the biggest weekly climb in four months as investors weighed the outlook for exports from the Black Sea region after the loss of a passenger jet over Ukraine spurred concern supply may be disrupted. The contract for September delivery rose as much as 0.7 percent to $5.5475 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade and was at $5.545 by 1:59 p.m. in Singapore. Prices jumped 2.4 percent yesterday, the biggest increase since April 15. Futures are set to advance 5.4 percent this week, the biggest weekly gain since the period ended March 7.
http://www.agweb.com/article/jet_crash_over_ukraine_might_spur_wheat_price_gains_BLMG/

Ukraine and Russia are major wheat exporters – not that any sanctions are likely to apply to grain itself, a major source of cheap supplies for, for example, North Africa, but regional instability could affect transportation, or least raise fears of disruptions that persuade buyers to turn elsewhere.

Canada ended up with at least 2 million acres unplanted because of wet conditions.


Ukraine is the world’s No. 6 exporter of wheat, and instability there could cause supply disruptions, sending prices higher.

Cedar

Offline Oil Lady

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #782 on: July 20, 2014, 03:13:04 AM »
Jet Crash Over Ukraine Might Spur Wheat Price Gains
Wheat prices soar as air crash fuels Ukraine fears
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/wheat-prices-soar-as-air-crash-fuels-ukraine-fears--7278.html

Wheat headed for the biggest weekly climb in four months as investors weighed the outlook for exports from the Black Sea region after the loss of a passenger jet over Ukraine spurred concern supply may be disrupted. The contract for September delivery rose as much as 0.7 percent to $5.5475 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade and was at $5.545 by 1:59 p.m. in Singapore. Prices jumped 2.4 percent yesterday, the biggest increase since April 15. Futures are set to advance 5.4 percent this week, the biggest weekly gain since the period ended March 7.
http://www.agweb.com/article/jet_crash_over_ukraine_might_spur_wheat_price_gains_BLMG/

Ukraine and Russia are major wheat exporters – not that any sanctions are likely to apply to grain itself, a major source of cheap supplies for, for example, North Africa, but regional instability could affect transportation, or least raise fears of disruptions that persuade buyers to turn elsewhere.

Canada ended up with at least 2 million acres unplanted because of wet conditions.


Ukraine is the world’s No. 6 exporter of wheat, and instability there could cause supply disruptions, sending prices higher.

Cedar


I just did a very rough estimate based entirely on this chart.

Looks to me like Ukraine is responsible for 14% of all the wheat of just these Top Eight producers.

But the real question is: what percentage of the world's wheat are they responsible for?

If we take a guess and cut that 14% in half, that brings us down to 7% of the world's wheat coming from Ukraine (just a guess on my part). And my understanding of shortages and scarcity (based entirely on my petroleum research, especially my studies of the two Energy Crises that struck America  back in the 1970's) tells me that any time a supply system suffers a sudden and unforeseeable shortage of 5% or more, it's capable of seizing up the whole system.

This 5% rule only applies to shortages in commodities for which there is absolutely no alternative. Wheat (unlike oil) does have some alternatives. So I do not see the system "seizing up" due to a 7% drop in supply. However, if we continue to see droughts and wildfires inn Australia, Russia, and India, then that 7% loss could get compounded into double-digit numbers, and then the prices will truly get out of hand. And then we might see more food riots in the coming 18 months like what we witnessed back in 2008 in Latin America and parts of the Third World. 


Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #783 on: July 20, 2014, 05:43:25 AM »
Looks to me like Ukraine is responsible for 14% of all the wheat of just these Top Eight producers.
But the real question is: what percentage of the world's wheat are they responsible for?

This chart was for exporting, not how much they grow.

Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #784 on: July 20, 2014, 03:42:35 PM »
This chart was for exporting, not how much they grow.

Cedar



Oh.

Well in that case ....


Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #785 on: July 24, 2014, 10:28:37 PM »
A senior U.N. official warns millions of people in Iraq are likely to face severe food shortages because of fighting in the north. The official says the seizure of large swaths of territory by Islamic militants has disrupted the normal harvest season.
http://www.voanews.com/content/us-iraq-likely-to-face-severe-food-shortages-because-of-conflict/1964519.html

Israel’s southern poor suffering food shortages
http://www.sdjewishworld.com/2014/07/24/israels-southern-poor-suffering-food-shortages/

There's a Kale Shortage (for Real)
http://modernfarmer.com/2014/07/ration-green-juice-great-kale-shortage-upon-us/
http://www.bonappetit.com/entertaining-style/trends-news/article/kale-shortage

Corn Syrup
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-hits-america-in-its-sweet-tooth/

Jamaica confirms food shortages on several items due to severe drought
http://www.caribbean360.com/news/jamaica-confirms-food-shortages-on-several-items-due-to-severe-drought

MPs warn of UK climate change food shortages
http://www.pollutionsolutions-online.com/news/air-clean-up/16/breaking_news/mps_warn_of_uk_climate_change_food_shortages/30783/
At the moment, the UK is able to produce food 68 per cent of the time, whereas 20 years ago, the country could produce food 80 per cent of the time. This is likely to drop further as global temperatures increase.


The Gaza Strip will face a general food shortage within two-four weeks if the main commercial Karni Crossing is not reopened, the UN has warned.
http://electronicintifada.net/content/un-warns-food-shortages-unless-key-crossing-point-reopened/7026

Cedar

Offline The Dark Unicorn

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #786 on: July 25, 2014, 10:10:33 AM »
Why is it I have a bad feeling our food crops that are in the commodity market, such as grain and corn, will end up being auctioned off to the highest bidder.... and I'm not just talking about the normal "exportable" amount either.......

This is going to get ugly soon........ and most people STILL don't have a clue!

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #787 on: July 31, 2014, 01:13:44 PM »
Here's how the California Drought has gone from bad to worse to horrible.


What happens if US loses California food production?
http://westernfarmpress.com/tree-nuts/what-happens-if-us-loses-california-food-production

Cedar
« Last Edit: July 31, 2014, 01:21:40 PM by Cedar »

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #788 on: July 31, 2014, 01:53:08 PM »
Here's how the California Drought has gone from bad to worse to horrible.


What happens if US loses California food production?
http://westernfarmpress.com/tree-nuts/what-happens-if-us-loses-california-food-production

Cedar

Yep, and the only reason the lower right corner is a lighter color, is that that area is basically already desert, never had much water, so the change in drought from normal is less

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #789 on: July 31, 2014, 04:54:59 PM »
Yep, and the only reason the lower right corner is a lighter color, is that that area is basically already desert, never had much water, so the change in drought from normal is less


NICE! (Not so much)...

92F today and it smells like potential wildfires. Saw sheet rain coming down, SE of us, but I doubt it was hitting the ground.

Cedar

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #790 on: July 31, 2014, 05:33:00 PM »

NICE! (Not so much)...

92F today and it smells like potential wildfires. Saw sheet rain coming down, SE of us, but I doubt it was hitting the ground.

Cedar
Yes, you guys are pretty hot too -- It was hot, humid, thunderstormish/fire feeling weather up there in my mind too, I just drove back down the 5 on monday from Tigard area, was in Portland before that, definitely just super hot and dry all the way back down, and the Shasta reservoir super low, and the Lexington reservoir ( by me, outside of silicon valley) the lowest ever too.  Stopped for well needed iced teas and blackberry shakes somewhere east of the freeway, to the west was Riddle and to the East was the burger place town..... Just super hot here on the mountain right now --

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #791 on: July 31, 2014, 05:40:20 PM »
I am on a mountain, so I don't feel it like maybe the valley has, but the last two days smelled crispy.

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #792 on: July 31, 2014, 10:31:58 PM »
8 pm We had thunderstorms and I was worried about lightening strikes and fires.
9:31pm and it is pouring down rain. I am happy about that.

Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #793 on: July 31, 2014, 10:48:19 PM »
England:
Farmers in the West Midlands have said harvests have failed to meet the expectations of just a month ago.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-28590213

Britain's wheat harvest this year could be almost 30% smaller than it was last year because of extreme weather, the National Farmers' Union has warned.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-22866982

Beleaguered farmers' third poor harvest in a row means British shoppers will rely on imported food - and prices will rise. Britain’s farmers are facing the third poor harvest on the run as the coldest March in 50 years plays havoc with crop planting – already significantly down because of last year’s wet weather.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/beleaguered-farmers-third-poor-harvest-in-a-row-means-british-shoppers-will-rely-on-imported-food--and-prices-will-rise-8556131.html

France:
The French are saying their wheat crop, the biggest in the EU, may not yield as well as they previously thought.

Worldwide yields July 2014 issue:
http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdf

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/USDMNews.aspx

Water shortages affect tomatoes
http://www.recorderonline.com/news/water-shortages-affect-tomatoes/article_0739b6ca-0b70-11e4-942e-0017a43b2370.html

Cedar

Offline The Dark Unicorn

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #794 on: August 01, 2014, 07:03:43 AM »
I've been having a heck of a time tying to get my container tomatoes to grow, Yellow leaves, no fruit.........

The community garden isn't doing much better! It seems like we've all been asking "where are the bees?" as well..................................

Fun Fun

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #795 on: August 01, 2014, 09:49:31 AM »
The community garden isn't doing much better! It seems like we've all been asking "where are the bees?" as well.................................

Probably flying to find water to cools their hives.

Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #796 on: August 03, 2014, 11:18:40 PM »
Been talking to the head of our gleaner's group. Started talking to her 2 months ago, that I was wondering if we would get the field gleans as much as we did last year due to the CA drought. By this time last year we had at least 8-10 field gleans.

We were talking about it again last Saturday... so far this year we have had ONE field glean for strawberries. This leads me to suspect that anything grown is being processed due to lack of products being grown in the US. There is not much or any surplus (yet). I do not think that we are behind schedule in the valley for crop harvests this year, so I think everything being grown, regardless of quality, is being shipped.

Cedar

Offline The Dark Unicorn

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #797 on: August 04, 2014, 07:50:58 AM »
^ Makes sense. They don't want people to begin to panic, so they will send everything out for processing unlike previous years.......

Glad I've been slowly finding clearance prices fruit plants that I'll be cultivating.....

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #798 on: August 04, 2014, 08:45:19 AM »
^ Makes sense. They don't want people to begin to panic, so they will send everything out for processing unlike previous years.......

It is more like the canneries are filling contracts with no surplus. In the valley, the canneries on contract buy so much from farmers, of say beans. But they can't just buy it all from Farmer A. They have to buy from all the ones they have on contract. So the surplus left over from the day, gets iced in huge totes and sent to us at gleaners (and not just my gleaners. About 19 gleaner groups in Oregon that I know of). There has not been any surplus.

Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #799 on: August 12, 2014, 11:23:07 AM »
The U.S. had its coolest July since 2009, with twice as many record cool temps as warm.


Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #800 on: August 12, 2014, 05:34:09 PM »
Unable to obtain affordable water for his trees, he hired a bulldozer to uproot about 400 acres of orange trees. He called his farm the “canary in the coal mine” for California agriculture, part of the 500,000 acres being abandoned this year, according to the University of California at Davis.....“If this persists in the next year, the devastation we will see here and across the state will be biblical.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-11/california-drought-transforms-global-food-market.html

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-california-drought-record-heat-sunburns-melon-crops-20140721-story.html

80% of California is now in extreme drought, new data show
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-california-extreme-drought-data-20140717-story.html

California agriculture industry facing $1 billion in drought losses
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-drought-study-california-agriculture-losses-20140715-story.html

Basically the darker it is, the more extreme the dryness


Cedar

Offline CharlesH

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #801 on: August 25, 2014, 04:25:10 AM »
The other side of this year's weather.  News folks tend to go overboard, but there is no doubt corn prices have been falling fast around me.
 
  http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2014/08/22/bumper-crop-could-mean-bust-some-in-farm-sector/?intcmp=obnetwork

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Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #803 on: September 15, 2014, 09:11:45 AM »
Not all the corn, soybeans and wheat are in yet. As much as 8 to 10 inches of snow fell in South Dakota. According to the National Weather Service in Rapid City, it represents the earliest recorded snow in the area, based on documents that go back to 1888. Meanwhile, North Dakota is bracing for a hard freeze tonight as temperatures drop into the 20s and 30s across the western and central parts of the state. "Precautions should be taken to protect sensitive vegetation," the National Weather Service advised. Not all the wheat and other crops are in yet. The USDA National Yield for corn and soybeans will be important in projecting overall supply and ending stocks. The study performed by Allendale’s Research suggests the USDA will not give us the full yield increase on the September report and use this report as a stepping stone to the final number in January. Wheat Farmers File Crop Insurance Claims in North Dakota. The Bismarck Tribune reports that a snowy April and wet May delayed planting, even preventing it in some cases. These days wet, cool weather continues to delay harvest and crop quality is becoming an issue. North Dakota' wheat crop is struggling with the sprouting of grains, kernel and hail damages.
http://www.agweb.com/article/wheat_farmers_file_crop_insurance_claims_in_north_dakota_NAA_Associated_Press/

California Drought Could Claim Quarter of Rice Crop. Nearly 25 percent of California's $5 billion rice crop will be lost this year due to lack of water, say experts. And while analysts say the loss is not a crisis just yet, at least one rice producer is ready to call it a day. "If we keep going through this drought, it may make us quit and sell the ranch," said Sherry Polit, who grows organic rice with her family on 1,500 acres in the Northern California town of Maxwell.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/california-drought/california-drought-could-claim-quarter-rice-crop-n200326

California drought could cause earthquakes, as well as crop failures
http://khon2.com/2014/09/06/dramatic-proof-that-californias-drought-is-one-of-the-worst-ever/

Alarm as almond farms consume California's water
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/sep/14/alarm-almond-farmers-drain-california-dry

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #804 on: September 15, 2014, 09:18:08 AM »
September 9th drought map


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Offline cheryl1

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #805 on: September 25, 2014, 12:20:02 AM »
There is a lot of misery for farmers in CA right now

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #806 on: September 25, 2014, 01:19:07 PM »
Delayed misery for us all, they are still watering those trees, just draining down the central valley aquifer, so the real misery is yet to come. We should not be growing water hungry perrenial crops in the central valley -- no way to adjust appropriatelly in drought years

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #807 on: November 10, 2014, 10:16:00 AM »
“Another dry year, we don’t know what the result is going to be, but it’s not going to be good,” Wade said. The Merced Irrigation District is far worse off, as are many of the West Side areas supplied by the federal Central Valley Project. The Oakdale and South San Joaquin irrigation districts have not had large cutbacks, but leaders worry about a dry 2015.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article2598509.html

http://www.sacbee.com/news/business/article2613416.html

Californian Drought Map November 4, 2014
(The darker the colour, the more extreme drought. Light beige = Abormally dry; Brick Red = Exceptional Drought)


Cedar

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #808 on: November 10, 2014, 10:18:40 AM »
Unfortunately, since we had some rain last week, people are feeling good and optomistic about water around here. WHich is fine as long as they are not careless. But, we will see if we get a real winter.

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #809 on: November 10, 2014, 10:55:06 AM »
Unfortunately, since we had some rain last week, people are feeling good and optomistic about water around here. WHich is fine as long as they are not careless. But, we will see if we get a real winter.

I looked at the long term weather forcast for up to March 2015. Your area above average for dryness and above average for temperatures. Hopefully the weatherman at NOAA is wrong, but plan for the worst.

Cedar