Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)

[Cedar]

Europe drought map in percentage of normal precipitation



Cedar

[Cedar]

News from April 2014
Brazil: Ever since 2005, Brazil has been suffering from a series of persistent drought episodes. By this year, the nine year long drought series reached an ominous peak. Like California, this drought series is now likely the worst seen in decades and possibly as far back as 500 years. The result was widespread fires and blackouts throughout Brazil together with extreme impacts to farm production. Particularly hard hit were coffee and sugar production, sending prices for both markets rocketing to record or near-record levels

Argentina: Argentine corn crop slammed by drought; harvest estimates wither
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/14/uk-argentina-corn-analysis-idUKBREA0D15520140114

The Ukraine and Russia: An ever-more expansionist Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine also resulted in higher food prices as speculators purchased grain stores over projections that Russian forces could disrupt Urkaine’s food production and exports. First phase invasion into the Crimea did not block key grain ports. But tens of thousands of troops massed along the Ukraine border and likely continued incursions by Russian special forces units into Eastern Ukraine resulted in an ongoing destabilization of one of the world’s key grain producers. In this context, it is worth noting that global harvest figures showed Russian wheat production falling from 61 million metric tons per year in 2009 to 38 million metric ton per year in 2012. Throughout this four-year period, Russia has been forced to curtail or cut off grain exports on numerous occasions as increasing periods of drought, fire and extreme weather resulted in loss of crops. Meanwhile, wildfire season began early in Siberian Russia perhaps presaging a fire season that, when combined with the effects of an emerging El Nino, could be the worst seen since 2010 when Russia first cut off grain exports to the rest of the world.

Indonesia and Southeast Asia: From Thailand to Malaysia to Indonesia, drought resulted in significant reductions in palm oil production, a main crop for the region. Throughout March and into April large fires were reported over a wide drought-stricken zone even as smoke choked both cities and countryside. Some of the fires were suspected to have been illegally set by large palm oil conglomerates seeking to clear new land for an ever-expanding set of palm oil plantations. But the plantations may now be in danger of a drought fed by both their destructive practices of land-clearing and by their overall contribution to an extraordinary and excessive global greenhouse gas overburden.

Australia: El Nino Alert by Australia Signals Droughts to Floods
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-06/el-nino-alert-issued-by-australia-as-event-seen-as-soon-as-july.html

Cedar

[Frugal Upstate]

As always-thank you so much for keeping this thread updated.

[Cedar]

I went to Costco today and checked out the meat department since I was there. I almost fainted over beef prices. There were like 5 steaks in a package. Not overly large, nothing too exciting like a Porterhouse or Filet Minon.. and it was $52. I would have figured 2 years ago that would have been just short of $20.
http://www.kansas.com/2014/05/16/3460918/low-supply-of-beef-driving-up.html
http://www.agweb.com/article/how_did_cattle_prices_get_so_high_NAA_University_News_Release/
http://articles.latimes.com/2014/apr/08/business/la-fi-beef-prices-20140406

Cedar

[The Dark Unicorn]

Steak? What is this wonderful cut of beef that you speak of?

^I haven't had steak in over a year, I just can't justify the expense..... which is sad since I love a nice juicy soft.......... grrrrrr

Heck I treated myself to a ham steak today, shared with my Dog and put half up for an omlette tomorrow.....

I think I'll go grab a bit more in staples with the $10 I had saved for hitting yard sales for canning jars... This could be ugly by this fall

[rikkrack]

Until we get land to raise our own we are buying 1/2 side of beef (tomorrow) mainly because it is cheaper than regular trips. Beef prices have gone through the roof. $2.50-$3/lb ground beef. I remember when it was $1/lb. Chicken, veggies all of it is going up. it is going to get bad. I didn't think the "dooms day" crowd would be right about food shortages on a large scale. Maybe economy, maybe civil unrest, but food I thought was one of the out there tin foil hat ideas.

We are starting our meat rabbits, getting goats, and it seems like just in time too.

[Cedar]

This could be ugly by this fall

I am betting before Fall.

Cedar

[kiteflyer]

     Fall is about right for the perfect storm with Famine and all out warfare with Iran,Russia and China! It's all biblical believe it or not!

                                                               kiteflyer

          A Perfect Storm is Gathering for Wheat Price!

           http://www.trefis.com/stock/weat/articles/238870/a-perfect-storm-is-gathering-for-wheat-prices/2014-05-13

        In a previous article, I discussed why beef prices are elevated and will remain so through at least next year. And as it turns out, we’re entering a new age of higher prices for many agricultural commodities.

Around the globe, a perfect storm of events has begun to push the price of wheat higher (north of $7 per bushel). And as wheat prices rise, it’ll affect the price of flour and bread. In fact, flour has already jumped about 10% in cost over the past year.

But what’s behind the rapid increase in the price of wheat?

There are three main factors at work . . .

[endurance]

What has been interesting to me has been the extreme fluctuation.  Last summer Colorado was burning until early July, then we got into a fairly normal pattern of moisture and then September hit and we had epic flooding (depending on where you were along the front range, between a 100 year to over 500 year flooding).  Since that time it's returned to a relatively normal pattern (a little snowier than normal in the high country, a little drier than normal on the plains).  At this point I'll count ourselves as lucky, but these extremes are really hard to manage in so many aspects.  You run the risk of loss of life if you top up reservoirs and you get epic rains.

In the end, I suspect we're going to have to learn to live with a new normal of wider fluctuations in temperatures, precipitation and extreme weather.  Whether our planet can continue to support 7.2 billion people with these wider fluctuations, well, that's yet to be seen.  Combine all of this climate stuff with high energy prices and you have a recipe for conflict and suffering.   

[Cedar]

Too wet


Too dry


As of May 13, 2014, drought covered approximately 38 percent of the contiguous 48 states, according to the U. S. Drought Monitor. The area affected by extreme or exceptional drought (D3 or D4) has expanded from about 10 percent of the contiguous states in mid-April to 14 percent in mid-May.

Drought is forecast to expand into the remainder of far southern Texas, much of southeastern Texas, and the southwestern quarter of Louisiana by the end of summer.

"New Dust Bowl" or "Terrible Teens" drought taking a toll. In April, devastatingly dry, dusty, windy conditions on the southern Great Plains fueled concerns of a “New Dust Bowl.”  The “Terrible Teens” drought, which for many parts of the southern Great Plains began in the fall of 2010 and has lasted for more than 3½ years, continued to take a severe toll on rangeland, pastures, and winter wheat.  During the four weeks ending April 1, coverage of extreme drought (D3) climbed from 14 to 25% in Kansas, while extreme to exceptional drought (D3/D4) coverage rose from 24 to 39% in Oklahoma; 27 to 38% in Texas; and 25 to 33% in New Mexico.

A mid-April cold snap added “freeze insult” to drought-injured wheat on the southern Great Plains.  Another cold wave at month’s end may have caused additional harm to the crop in beleaguered southern wheat production areas.  By April 27, one-third (33%) of the U.S. winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition, identical to the end-of-April rating for last year’s drought-affected crop.  Nearly two-thirds (65%) of the wheat was rated very poor to poor in Oklahoma and Texas, while roughly one-third of the crop was rated very poor to poor in Kansas (37%) and Colorado (33%).  The portion of the winter wheat production area in drought has been hovering just above the 50-percent mark in recent weeks and stood at 53% on April 29.  This value is very similar to what was noted a year ago, on April 30, 2013, when 54% of the wheat crop was in drought. 

By April 29, about one-quarter (26%) of the U.S. corn production area was in drought, down 5 percentage points from four weeks ago.  Similarly, 19% of the soybean production area was in drought on April 29, down 5 points from April 1.

Cedar

[Cedar]

These are the kinds of reports I read weekly for years...
Report May 9th, 2014
WHEAT:
U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are projected down 10 percent from 2013/14 with beginning stocks, production, and imports all expected lower. Supplies for the new marketing year are projected to be the lowest since 2007/08. Production is projected at 1,963 million bushels, down 8 percent from last year.

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

May 20, 2014
Kansas Wheat Condition Declines as Drought Endures
The condition of the Kansas winter wheat crop continues to decline despite spotty rains that relieved drought pressure in central eastern parts of the state. The National Agricultural Statistics Service reported Monday that 59 percent of the winter wheat is in poor to very poor condition. About 29 percent is listed as fair, with just 11 percent rated as good and 1 percent excellent. The agency says that with pasture grasses shortened by drought, some producers are turning cattle out to graze the failed wheat. The weekly report also said cool temperatures slowed crop development, and freezing temperatures in parts of Kansas kept many farmers from putting seed in the ground. About 86 percent of the state's corn has now been planted, along with 7 percent of sorghum and 32 percent of soybeans.

Cedar

[Cedar]

May 2014 California crop reports
Almonds-Yield expected to average 2,270 pounds per acre, down 4.6 percent from the 2013 yield of 2,380 pounds per acre.

Peaches-The California drought situation remained a concern for peach growers. However, many growers will be able to offset reduced irrigation district water deliveries by utilizing wells to pump groundwater.

Potatoes- The 2014 Spring Potato crop forecast is 10.0 million cwt., down 8 percent from last year. Yield is lower than previous years.

Wheat- The 2014 Winter wheat production forecast is 480 thousand tons, down 41 percent from last year due to fewer acres planted by growers

Livestock - The movement of cattle out of California remained active.  Supplemental feeding of livestock continued.  Range and pasture conditions are rated poor to very poor.


Article http://wallstcheatsheet.com/politics/californias-drought-is-hurting-all-of-america.html/?a=viewall
As for jobs that will be lost as the farm industry struggles to survive the year, NPR reports that as many as 20,000 could be lost. In areas like Mendota, California, where farming is a major source of jobs and income and where those living there already face joblessness and poverty, the job losses will be especially hard

Article - California's Drought Ripples Through Businesses, Then To Schools
http://www.npr.org/2014/04/20/304173037/californias-drought-ripples-through-businesses-and-even-schools

Cedar









Cedar

[The Dark Unicorn]

To put it in perspective a bit. My fiance is a truck driver, out 3 weeks home 3 days. The price of food (fast or sit down) has jumped in the last year where his pay has not.

I kid you not, last nite he sat down at a Denny's had 2 scrambled eggs, hash browns and 2 sausage links with a soda..... $10 before tip..... he has to eat 2x a day due to BP meds. Even hitting McDs for the $ menu is getting pricy... and he really HATES fast food but is trying to keep costs down. It still costs $150 a WEEK for him to eat reasonably out there! And he's fairly cheap, we know guys spending double since they always sit in the restaurant and refuse to eat the fast food offered.

So next time someone tries to give you a line about how much you make as a truck driver laugh at them, the cost of "living" in that truck is VERY expensive!

I also so an article on Yahoo about the coffee rust fungus...........

[nkawtg]

No worries for me, I can't stand coffee, but if the diet coke fungus hits I'm in trouble.

[endurance]

No worries for me, I can't stand coffee, but if the diet coke fungus hits I'm in trouble.

thanks for that. I'm in the same boat, but just regular coke for me, please.

[Cedar]

Ground chuck, 1 pound


Bacon, 1 pound


Chicken, per pound


Bananas, per pound


Oranges, per pound


White sugar, per pound


Peanut butter, per pound


Cedar

[Morning Sunshine]

woh, Cedar, those charts are something to see.  I just gave them a quick look.  I will probably be spending much more time examining them.

[Cedar]

June 10th drought map


And in California


June 4, 2014 -- Thousands of low-income California families who are impacted by the drought will soon be receiving rental assistance, thanks to a new $10 million grant program being offered through California's Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD). La Cooperativa, a nonprofit association, has been selected by HCD to administer the program, and assistance will begin flowing directly to California families in the coming weeks.
http://www.ca.gov/drought/news/story-50.html

California Weekly Drought Update
The California Department of Social Services has provided over 55,000 boxes of food to date for counties impacted by the drought. This food aid, enabled by emergency drought legislation passed in March, is targeted toward residents economically impacted by the drought. The Department is working with local food banks to ensure that each food bank has a plan to outreach to those most impacted by the drought.

The California Department of Food and Agriculture has identified strategies and actions that can help farmers control dust during the drought. Several hundred thousand acres of fallowed lands increase the threat of major dust storms in parts of California, so the state is working provide landowners ways to reduce airborne dust on their properties.

From the Weather Channel
California Drought Threatens Food Supply of All Americans; Collapsing Aquifer Sinking the Land
http://www.weather.com/tv/tvshows/americas-morning-headquarters/california-drought-cracked-20140521

Cedar

[The Dark Unicorn]

Quick note: I noticed that coffee price on the brand I've been buying jumped 20 cents this week..........

[Cedar]

Cedar

[Cedar]

http://sucho.unl.edu/web_archive/AgInDrought/2014-07-01-AgInDrought.pdf

California topped the U.S. with 75% of its rangeland and pastures rated in very poor to poor condition on June 29, according to USDA.  Following California were New Mexico (67% very poor to poor), Arizona (58%), Colorado (35%), and Nevada (35%).  According to the latest “agriculture in drought” statistics, based on the July 1 Drought Monitor, 25% of the domestic hay acreage and 36% of the U.S. cattle inventory were located in a drought-affected area.

The nation’s winter wheat crop suffered from the effects of drought, a harsh winter, and several spring freezes.  Based on the “agriculture in drought” statistics, 46% of the winter wheat production area was within an area experiencing drought on July 1.  Nearly half (44%) of the U.S. winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition by USDA on June 29, paced by Oklahoma (76% very poor to poor), Texas (63%), and Kansas (61%), as May and June rainfall arrived too late to revive the crop.  During the last two decades, only the drought-affected crops of 2001-02 and 2005-06 were rated lower overall at end of the growing season.  The winter wheat harvest was well underway in southern production areas, with 89% of Oklahoma’s crop cut by June 29.

Cedar

[Cedar]

Roosters' fertility problem hits U.S. chicken supply, lifts prices

High chicken prices due to the production constraints have helped push up the stock prices of Tyson and Sanderson this year, by about 17 percent and 38 percent, respectively. Both Tyson and Sanderson reported net income more than doubled in their fiscal second quarters.

The price increase is especially painful for consumers as prices for steaks and pork chops are up 10 percent this year due to drought and disease affecting herds.

"There's nothing cheap to buy," said Ron Prestage, president-elect of the National Pork Producers Council.

Shawna McLean, who lives with her husband and dog in Playa Del Rey, California, said she now chooses meats based on what is on sale. "I'm looking at the same chicken and the price has gone up about $3 in the last month," said the 48-year old,

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/09/us-chicken-supply-genetics-exclusive-idUSKBN0FE0C820140709

Ross hybrid chickens http://en.aviagen.com/ross-708/
Aviagen Broiler Breeders supplies day-old grandparent and parent stock chicks to customers in 130 countries worldwide under the Arbor Acres®, Indian River®, and Ross® brand names.

Cedar

[CharlesH]

Interesting that they claim production problems for the price increases in one breath and in the next report that their net income more than doubled...  Could "business" be more responsible for price increases than rooster sperm counts?  Makes on wonder.   When I see whole store brand "plain Jane/John" chickens selling for $1.10/lb this year compared to $1.07 last year (an increase of less than 3%) the price increases at Tyson and Sanderson seem less and less biological.

[Cedar]

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/last-drop-americas-breadbasket-faces-dire-water-crisis-n146836
The Last Drop: America's Breadbasket Faces Dire Water Crisis

Cedar

[mountainmoma]

Just went to the Azure web site to put a few things into my cart -- BIG jump in wheat prices since last I looked !!

Organic Chicken wheat, which is floor sweepings for animal feed, is now $21.65 for a 50 lb bag. It went from 15.20 exactly one year ago ( I went and looked up my July 2013 receipt) for a long time, to 17, then 19 a few months ago.....  Pre made organic chicken pellets at $23 for 50 lbs is starting to look like what I might need to change to -- too bad I just bought my years supply of organic flax seeds I use in my home made mix !

So, I looked at the other wheat products there, $43.20 for 50 lbs of organic red wheat berries ! This was $19.20 one year ago, it has more than doubled !! $24.40 for 25 lbs of whole wheat flour. This is now approaching $1/lb -- I bought some organic whole wheat pastry flour from them in AUg of 2013 for .57/lb !

So, of course it was good I bought a years supply a year ago, as the price did rise a whole bunch -- but I will run out and will need to replace at some point. So, are we betting on fall 2015 dropping price again ? Or is it up, up, up from here on out ..... because buying ahead is only kicking the can down the road. So, now the decision is, eat the reserves thinking next years crop will be better, and then not have the buffer in the house I would like to keep, or buy at the new doubled price because it may get worse.....

Our inflation numbers are so, so off -- I am on a fixed income and pinch a penney as hard as possible already. Food, household energy, transportation (gasoline) are ALL I spend money on !! Inflation has been RISING so, so much more than they will admit

[chad]

Our inflation numbers are so, so off -- I am on a fixed income and pinch a penney as hard as possible already. Food, household energy, transportation (gasoline) are ALL I spend money on !! Inflation has been RISING so, so much more than they will admit

On 2/2011 I Bought 50lb of red and white wheat from my local LDS cannery at $16 per 50lb.

All that printing of money is coming home to roost...

[Cedar]

Wheat will go worse. Harvests are already hooped in Ukraine, Crimea, Russia due to war. Brazil, Argentina who saved the USA in our drought is now in severe drought and china is hoarding and rust disease.

Cedar

[mountainmoma]

Ok, I actually bought more last year than I remembered (as we had 2 more adults living in the house then). So, we are fine for a bit, my bet last summer/fall was that wheat was going up, and so 3 bags are on the shelf, not just one.

But, as I mentioned, while good to have extras for use in a distribution disruption or personal financial disruption, replacement food will still need to be bought at the higher prices, so we realy cant hedge inflation, long term, by stocking up.

[Ms. Albatross]

Wheat will go worse. Harvests are already hooped in Ukraine, Crimea, Russia due to war. Brazil, Argentina who saved the USA in our drought is now in severe drought and china is hoarding and rust disease.

Cedar

Cedar, nosy question.  Do you buy wheat berries (either white or red) and grind them to make flour?  I haven't done it yet.  But it seems like it would be worth the money to buy the bulk wheat and get a quality grinder at this point - considering how high the prices have risen and how high they are  probably going to go.

[mountainmoma]

I do a mix. I buy hard red wheat berries and grind it to make bread.

But, I cannot get a fine enough grind - for what I want- for fine baking, so I also buy flour, whole wheat pastry and white for desert baking.