Author Topic: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)  (Read 375562 times)

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #630 on: June 12, 2013, 10:53:14 AM »
 Ulrike Dauer reports that Nomura has assessed flooding damage agricultural costs to be around €2 billion and €3 billion ($2.6 billion to $4 billion) in Central Europe, some the worst seen in 500 years. “Some 335,000 hectares of German farmland have been flooded, ruining many crops. In Bavaria alone, 30,000 hectares of farmland have been flooded, with substantial damages expected for crops including potatoes, turnips, corn, asparagus, strawberries, lettuce, cucumber and onions.”

http://www.usnews.com/photos/severe-flooding-threatens-crops-in-europe

http://www.euractiv.com/cap/farmers-brace-major-losses-centr-news-528365
As long as food stocks in major producing and consuming countries remain low, the risk of price volatility is amplified,” the report says. “A widespread drought such as the one experienced in 2012, on top of low food stocks, could raise world prices by 15-40%.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-03/german-wheat-seen-avoiding-flooding-damage-as-strawberries-soak.html

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Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #631 on: June 28, 2013, 02:24:46 PM »


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Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #632 on: June 28, 2013, 02:33:01 PM »
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/10/us/after-drought-rains-plaguing-midwest-farms.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Just over 44 percent of the country remains in drought, down more than 9 percentage points from the beginning of March.

By this time, three weeks after planting, Mr. Korff said, his corn should be waist high. But instead, his crop looks like rows of small blades of grass, with the plants popping about only four inches out of the ground.

“It doesn’t matter how wet it is today,” he said. “We’re just two weeks away from a drought.”


Cedar

Offline CharlesH

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #633 on: June 28, 2013, 03:03:31 PM »

“It doesn’t matter how wet it is today,” he said. “We’re just two weeks away from a drought.” [/i]


I feel bad for the large scale farmers who have specialized themselves into this mess, but the reality is these news stories are just reporting a symptom of a problem and not the root cause in my opinion.  I'm almost 50 years old, and while farming skipped a generation with my dad our family has a long history of Midwest farming.  Guess what?  Weather has always been happening!  You know what average weather is?  It's temps in the 90s one year and 70s the next.  Just because the average is in the 80s doesn't mean you see it all that often.  It also means 24 inches of rain one year and 10 the next.  Just because the average sounds great doesn't mean that in either year your rainfall was ideal.  I cull trees from my property for firewood, my son and I enjoy looking at the different size rings in the wood and recognizing the story those rings tell us about droughts and rain over the last 20-50 years.  There have been a lot of lean and wet years going back to at least the 1950s.  And can you imagine the monumental guilt trip We'd be sending ourselves on if a year or two like the 1930s dust bowl happened today??  Crazy weather is not news!
 
The NY Times and similar reporting organizations have a bias, in my opinion, of wanting to report all weather related stories with a nod towards global man-made climate change (some decades they say we're getting cooler, some decades hotter, but whatever is happening  we humans need to feel bad about it).  I fully agree the climate is changing.  I also can't imagine how we humans aren't having an effect, but the argument is still a red herring.
 
The real reason we see all these sad farmers in the news year in and year out is that they no longer have the diversification necessary to ride out different types of weather.  If you are in corn and your land, which you disc'd into powder two months ago gets flooded out before the seed roots take hold, you're screwed.  The reason you are screwed is because all you are in is corn, or beans, or wheat.  When I was a kid we did corn, beans, wheat, cow/calf, some hogs, chickens, and a large garden, all on 160 acres.  To add even more diversification my uncle built a little shop on a corner of the farm and fixed cars.  There was always something that worked and made money.  Furthermore the farm and the equipment was paid for.  There were times in the depression when they borrowed against it short term, but they always had a plan to pay off the debt quick and they never got leveraged to the gills.
 
That diversification is starting to come back in small farms, but it is hard to make those profitable (I'm trying to make ours pay now, but our diversification will always include off farm income).  For the large farms its gone.  Add to that things like the farm bill, which in my opinion is at least partially little more than agricultural welfare, and large agribusiness firms paying huge amounts to our state ag schools to spread the GMO, factory farm, kool aid and you have a recipe for disaster.
 
Meanwhile the NY Times shows us a sad looking farmer with a flooded field and blames it on the weather...
 
Sorry for the rant.  This is a touchy subject with me.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #634 on: June 28, 2013, 03:16:23 PM »
I post these for keeping an eye on the end result.. regardless of the why. Is there enough water or lack of it to pull crops off this year and is my cornmeal, bread, animal feed going to get stupidly high again or even is there enough of it? Did you know they are talking about soybean rationing now? How much soy is in human food products these days? In animal feeds?

My farms have always been diversified and always have been.. but now they are talking about a drought development likely in my area. If I do not watch the trends and the forecasts I might not know it is coming up and being on a new farm, I don't know what that will and will not cause for problems with our farm. I presume wildfires with the 30,000+ acres of forest surrounding me. The creeks/springs here have not dried up in the last 100 years, but there might be a first time and I ought to plan for that.

If crops back east are looking to be a poor yield, can I plan anything to offset that for me and my family for our own personal use to store?

If you prefer I do not put Ag reports on TSP, I will desist and keep the trends to myself.

Cedar

Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #635 on: June 28, 2013, 03:33:16 PM »
no, Cedar, please continue.  I do not understand everything you post, but I find it interesting to look at the trends.

Offline Ms. Albatross

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #636 on: June 28, 2013, 04:45:24 PM »
no, Cedar, please continue.  I do not understand everything you post, but I find it interesting to look at the trends.

+1

Offline CharlesH

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #637 on: June 28, 2013, 04:57:11 PM »
Sorry, I certainly wasn't blaming you for anything.  I didn't realize this was an informational thread only and allowed myself to vent my frustration at an issue related to the way the news is being reported.  It was not intended to be a slight to you and im sorry you saw it that way. I obviously have very strong opinions on stuff like this, but I'm happy to keep them to myself and let the articles stand on their own.

Offline chickchoc

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #638 on: June 28, 2013, 05:05:39 PM »
+1 to Charles H for pointing out one of the main downfalls of modern farming practices -- lack of diversification. 

+1 to Cedar for all her many informational posts in so many different forums. 


Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #639 on: June 28, 2013, 05:08:40 PM »
It was not intended to be a slight to you and im sorry you saw it that way.

Well, I didn't really feel slighted, but wanted to make sure I was not annoying anyone  ;)

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Offline cheryl1

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #640 on: June 29, 2013, 09:14:14 AM »
 
The real reason we see all these sad farmers in the news year in and year out is

...human nature. Farmers have been bellyaching about the weather since the dawn of time. It's our favorite hobby.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #641 on: June 29, 2013, 09:16:08 AM »
...human nature. Farmers have been bellyaching about the weather since the dawn of time. It's our favorite hobby.

LOL..

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Offline PAGUY

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #642 on: June 29, 2013, 11:54:08 AM »
Has anyone been keeping an eye on peanutbutter?  that has been my measuring stick for the past few years.

Offline cheryl1

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #643 on: June 29, 2013, 12:50:42 PM »
I bought it on sale before a price increase in 2011. I haven't had to check the price of peanut butter since (I still have 6 jars). I know my frito lay chip dip jumped from $2.50 to $2.76 a can this year.

Offline whatmecrazy

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #644 on: July 16, 2013, 02:35:44 PM »
I just found out today that I have commissary privileges, does anyone know if their prices are still reasonable?

Offline CharlesH

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #645 on: July 16, 2013, 03:12:33 PM »
I just found out today that I have commissary privileges, does anyone know if their prices are still reasonable?
 
 No where near where they were 15-20 years ago.  I heard they were considered unfair competition to supermarkets around bases so they had to sell at comparable prices.  Not sure what the real reason was, but prices are now just Ok, not great in my opinion.

Offline Frugal Upstate

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #646 on: July 18, 2013, 08:24:04 AM »
I love having all this information available-so keep it up :)

Offline rikkrack

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #647 on: July 18, 2013, 10:00:36 AM »
Yes, please Cedar keep it up. The news stories help me communicate the need to others about being more self reliant and self sufficient. When you start talking about peoples dinner plates they listen more than the zombie apocalypse.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #648 on: July 18, 2013, 12:22:10 PM »
Oh I probably will. Since my last post on this thread I have actually not looked at my normal AG reports. I do slack off them from time to time. I started to look again a couple days ago, but I had a friend from WI here for a week. He is gone for a couple days to visit others and then back here again. I need to finish fencing today for 14 head of sheep we are bringing in on Saturday, but I am sooooooo lethargic today. Got stung yesterday, Z's cat kept us awake most of the night so we had like 2-3 hours of sleep? But if I come back in to visit my sofa and not pass out later this afternoon, maybe it is the day to check out the Ag reports. Glad you guys want them, this is a handy place for me to record trends and share with others at the same time.

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Offline Cedar

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Offline cheryl1

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #651 on: July 18, 2013, 02:28:04 PM »
Part of me selfishly wishes for $15 corn, especially now that we grow and hunt so much of our own food. A years worth of crop sold at that price would really help with the prepping budget.


Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #652 on: July 18, 2013, 02:48:46 PM »
Might get your wish Cheryl...

The USDA forecasts Argentine wheat production for 2012/13 at 10 million tons, down 9 percent from last month and down 35 percent from 2011/12. Area is estimated at 3.5 million hectares, down 5 percent from last month and down 32 percent
from 2011/12. They are also 25% behind in soybeans. (The US had to buy a bunch of grain from them last year).

China's wheat crop has suffered more severely than previously thought from frost in the growing period and rain during the harvest, and import demand to compensate for the damage could see the country eclipse Egypt as the world's top buyer. China is usually the top producer of wheat worldwide. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/16/us-china-wheat-idUSBRE96F1F120130716

For 5 weeks, France’s corn crop was bad on continued wet and cold weather in the southwestern region of Aquitaine, which accounts for a fifth of the country’s production of the grain. France is Europe's biggest corn grower. They are leaving alot of area unplanted.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/09/markets-grain-europe-idUSL6N0FF29U20130709

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Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #653 on: July 30, 2013, 09:28:24 AM »
With Too Much Rain in the South, Too Little Produce on the Shelves

Through June, Georgia was 34% above normal rainfall, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center. Both South Carolina and North Carolina were about 25 percent above normal. Alabama’s rainfall was up 22 percent. The weather is a particular shock because more than two-thirds of the region was abnormally dry or suffering a drought last year.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/30/us/too-much-rain-in-the-south-too-little-produce-on-the-shelves.html

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Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #654 on: July 31, 2013, 08:06:01 PM »
The United Nations says mounting violence in Syria has prevented the delivery of food to around 600,000 people. A spokesperson for the World Food Programme said U.N. aid has only reached 2.4 million out of three million Syrians in need.  >:(

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Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #655 on: July 31, 2013, 08:29:17 PM »
"CBS This Morning" contributor Michio Kaku, a physics professor at the City University of New York, discusses how extreme weather impacting fruit and vegetable crops can be a sign of things to come.

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50152005n

The Arkansas Farm Bureau on Tuesday estimated the flooding had submerged 1 million acres of state cropland, costing more than $500 million. The bureau suggested the hit to the state economy would be greater, predicting farmers wouldn't be able to start recovering at least until the beginning of June. Arkansas, the largest rice producer in the country, probably lost 300,000 acres of rice in the floods, according to the organization.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/05/10/southern-flooding-poised-wreak-havoc-economy/

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« Last Edit: July 31, 2013, 08:35:12 PM by Cedar »

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #656 on: July 31, 2013, 09:09:40 PM »
Ooops.. I thought it sounded kinda familiar.. that bottom link is from 2011. But I was checking the current flooding issues and it was mixed up with the other current ones. DISREGARD IT.

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Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #657 on: August 15, 2013, 08:07:20 PM »
In the news today:
UN needs $98 million in emergency aid for North Korea
The United Nations coordinator for North Korea has called for $98 million in emergency aid to that country to reach the $150 million total needed to maintain food, health and sanitation programs for 2013, reports AFP. The country currently faces chronic food shortages, having suffered from devastating famine in the mid-1990s resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths. "External assistance continues to play a vital role in safeguarding the lives of millions," UN resident coordinator Ghulam Isaczai said in a statement on Thursday. Nearly 2.4 million out of the country’s population of 24 million require regular food assistance, while 28 per cent of children under five suffer from malnutrition. International aid from the US and South Korea has been hit in recent years due to tensions over North Korea’s continuing nuclear program.

In 2013, in the USA, nearly 48 million people currently receive food stamp benefits. The number of Americans receiving subsidized food assistance from the federal government has risen to 101 million, representing roughly a third of the U.S. population. Of the 101 million receiving food benefits, a record 48 million Americans participated in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), commonly known as food stamps. The USDA describes SNAP as the “largest program in the domestic hunger safety net.” The USDA says the number of Americans on food stamps is a “historically high figure that has risen with the economic downturn.”

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R40095.pdf Page 16

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #658 on: August 15, 2013, 08:19:55 PM »
Crop reports this week:

Short-term dryness increased stress on summer crops in the western Corn Belt, despite favorable temperatures. By July 7, six percent of the nation’s corn crop was silking, 40 percentage points behind last year and 14 points behind the 5-year average. By July 14, a marked decline in Iowa’s soil moisture led to early signs of crop stress. By July 28, eight percent of the nation’s corn crop was at or beyond the dough stage, 27 percentage points behind last year and 9 points behind the 5-year average. US corn production is forecast at 13.8 billion bushels, up 28 percent from 2012. If realized, this will be a new record U.S. production. Yields are expected to average 154.4 bushels per acre.

Record setting July rainfall totals were observed in parts of the Southeast, primarily from Florida to Virginia, causing some problems with respect to row crops due to flash flooding, standing water, and submerged lowlands.

Portions of the High Plains continued to deal with the effects of long-term drought, despite sporadic July showers. Ongoing soil moisture shortages were reflected in crop conditions, which included nearly one-third (32 percent) of the Texas cotton being rated very poor to poor on July 28.

With producers in portions of the eastern Corn Belt and Southeast struggling to combine wet fields, 57 percent of this year’s winter wheat crop was harvested by July 7. This was 21 percentage points behind last year and 7 points behind the 5-year average.

Soybean production is forecast at 3.26 billion bushels, up 8 percent from last year. If realized, production will be the third largest on record.

63 percent of the peanut crop was reported in good to excellent condition, compared with 67 percent on July 7 and 69 percent at the same time last year.

Cedar

Offline cheryl1

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #659 on: August 15, 2013, 08:22:04 PM »
Our crops are doing great  so far <fingerscrossed>