Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)

[Cedar]

****NO IDEA WHY THERE ARE LINES THROUGH THE TEXT. I DID NOT PUT THEM THERE, JUST READ THOUGH THEM ****

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/14/us-drought-2013-cattle-ranchers_n_2469742.html
Donica has sold nearly all of his 800 cattle because there is no pasture to feed them and he now works as a ranch hand nearby to make ends meet until it rains again.The U.S. cattle herd has shrunk to 91 million animals, the smallest in 60 years.

Only a third of the U.S. winter wheat crop at the end of November was rated "good to excellent" by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the crop has deteriorated since then.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-usa-drought-cornbre90h0kr-20130118,0,3852853.story

More than 60 percent of the country was under drought conditions at the drought's peak in 2012 "A large part of the affected area(s) really are going into year two now," he says, adding that some parts of the U.S. are even heading into a third year.

The Palmer drought index, which tracks rain and temperatures to gauge the extent of drought conditions, fell to -4 in July, said Anderson, who correctly predicted an end to a La Nina weather pattern last year. History shows that in the years that the index had reached that level before, it took 18 to 51 months for soil moisture to recover, he said.

Parts of Iowa, which produces almost double the corn output of Argentina, the world’s third-largest shipper, and almost as much soybeans as China, was still in extreme drought as of Jan. 1, according to the government-backed Drought Monitor.

Cedar

[TexDaddy]

****NO IDEA WHY THERE ARE LINES THROUGH THE TEXT. I DID NOT PUT THEM THERE, JUST READ THOUGH THEM ****

Fixed it. I changed the [ ] around the s to ( ) in "area(s)"

[Cedar]

Thank you. Apparently typing in the dark may not be the best 

Cedar

[Cedar]

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-20/u-dot-k-dot-winter-wheat-shows-worst-fungus-symptoms-ever-recorded

The U.K. is the third-largest wheat producer in the 27- nation European Union and 97% of their crops affected.

Cedar

[Cedar]

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/16/1024581/un-warns-of-food-crisis-in-2013-if-extreme-weather-persists/

Cedar

[Cedar]

US Crop forecast 2013
http://www.agweb.com/blog/Farmland_Forecast_148/

Farmers are removing soybeans and cotton from their planting rotations in order to plant as much corn as possible. The Corn Belt is also moving farther west and north into areas that may have never planted corn

Increased food prices could also lead to increased instability around the world. One study concluded that riots become more likely when Food Price Index levels surpass 210 points. Currently at 216 points, Food Price Index levels are 22 points away from those that some say helped spark the riots leading to the Arab Spring.

Cedar

[eph2]

Not a big global perspective, but I nearly choked last night when Walmart wanted $10 for 2 pounds of HAMBURGER!

[rikkrack]

Not a big global perspective, but I nearly choked last night when Walmart wanted $10 for 2 pounds of HAMBURGER!

Stay tuned it will continue to go up. Everything is going to go up.

We bought from local farmer. 1/2 side beef and paid like 2.30/lb for steaks, roast, ribs, and burger when all said and done. Burger high, but evened out when price of steaks figured in.  And I contributed nothing to government machine, or corporate giants. No hormones and no toxic gick and fillers.

Find yourself a farmers market or local farmer.  Too much meat, split with 1 or 4 other families. We did that with the 1/2. Our family got half and 2 others each got a 1/4.

Or just be like Cedar and raise your own....

[TexDaddy]

...just be like Cedar....

A lofty and worthy goal.

[Cedar]

A lofty and worthy goal.

You guys make me feel slightly weird when you say things like that, but happy if I inspire someone to try something.

Cedar

[hoosiermom]

Federal subsidies help decide what gets grown, but I can sell my grain to who I want to. If one elevator is taking ethanol contracts for $7, one is buying feed corn for $7.10,and the other is trying to fill a Chinese contract for $7.15- bottom line says my grain is going to China. It's business. Fertilizer and seed companies aren't going to give me a break on input costs because I chose to sell to fill contract A vs. contract B for moral reasons. Profitmargins are pretty thin in farming.

if lawmakers prevent exports, then that means they just nationalized the food supply. I disagree with farm subsidies and wish they would go away, but that would mean that consumers would no longer be shielded from the true cost of food.

cheryl1, well said.  I once talked with a dairy farmer who let our preschool class come visit for a field trip.  It was great for the kids who lived in the city who never really saw this kind of thing.  Unfortunately, they may be out of business now.  The thing I took away was that while the price of a gallon of milk was rising, they didn't see any of that come back to them. 

Thank you for farming - it is a hard job and we appreciate you for doing it!!  I am going to try my garden again, revved up now after reading this thread.  Hubby was ordering seeds tonight!!  We are in NE Indiana, and I can tell you that it is very dry up here, and people are noticing it.  Very little snow this winter.

[hoosiermom]

You guys make me feel slightly weird when you say things like that, but happy if I inspire someone to try something.

Cedar

Cedar, honestly, I think of you all the time!  You give us the strength to try, even though we may fail (speaking for myself here) miserably the first time.  We will try again!

[Cedar]

A couple days ago I heard from a trusted source that a major store was going to start rationing sugar and a few other commodities. I thought this was odd since we had done so well on sugar lately and prices were dropping. But ...

Raw sugar futures in New York vaulted higher on hefty volumeon speculative short-covering, after the large short position in the market had prompted some to unwind their bearish positions. Speculators increased their net short position in sugar to the biggest in seven years on ICE Futures U.S. in the volatile week to Jan. 22, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday.  Volume was nearly 70 percent above the 30-day norm,
preliminary Thomson Reuters data showed. "Potentially there's more to be done," said Michael McDougall, a vice president at Newedge USA, referring to the expectation for more short-covering.

Cedar

[Cedar]

On Friday... Cattle surged the most in six months on signs of shrinking animal supplies in the U.S. and higher demand for beef as Japan eased restrictions for imports.

From Bloomsburg.

Cedar

[Cedar]

Prices for corn, soybeans, alfalfa hay, and other hay were expected to increase in Wisconsin from November to December, while prices for oats and milk were expected to decrease during the same time. Corn in Wisconsin sold for an average price of $6.95 per bushel in mid-December. This was five cents higher than November's price and $1.22 more than the price in December of the previous year. Nationwide corn prices averaged $7.01 per bushel in mid-December.

The average price for soybeans in Wisconsin was $14.50 per bushel in mid-December, 30 cents above the November price and $3.10 higher than the price in December 2011. Across the U.S., soybeans sold for an average price of $14.70 per bushel in mid-December.

Alfalfa hay in Wisconsin sold for an average price of $235.00 per ton in mid-December, $45.00 higher than in November and $105.00 above the price in December 2011. The average price for other hay types in Wisconsin was $155.00 per ton in mid-December, $35.00 above November's price and $65.00 higher than in December 2011.

I am sure the states south of that are the same or WAY worse.

Cedar

[Cedar]

January 23, 2013 Report from Ukraine: "In line with our view for wheat and barley exports to dry out quickly after shipments out of the country surpassed the limit set by the government in September, we do not see the recent ban on wheat exports as unexpected and believe the country has run out of wheat to sell on the global markets."
The Ukraine is #6 in world wheat production. Currently banned from any sales out of country. Export: 5.5 million tons. Domestic consumption: 14.1 million tons

January 23, 2013 Report 
We revised down our 2012/13 forecast for Russia wheat production as dry and hot weather have continued to damage crops in key growing regions such as the Volga Valley, the Urals and Siberia. We now expect output to drop 23.8% y-o-y to 42.0mn tonnes in 2012/13, compared with a previous expectation for output of 50.0mn tonnes. The drought is expected to slash wheat yields by almost 40% yo-y, to 1.87 tonnes/hectare (ha), according to the US Department of Agriculture, while area harvested is also estimated to decline relative to 2011/12. The steep drop in production will leave the Russian production surplus at a relatively low level of 4.4mn tonnes, compared with the 10-year average of11.0mn tonnes.
#8 Russia, Currently banned from selling wheat put of country. Export: 4 million tons. Domestic consumption: 38 million tons

Cedar

[Cedar]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-14/goldman-sachs-sees-2012-13-global-cocoa-shortage-of-100-000-tons.html
Goldman Sachs Sees 2012-13 Global Cocoa Shortage of 100,000 Tons

Cedar

[Frugal Upstate]

Beef is becoming a luxury food. . . even the burger.  I've been waiting for a good "sale" since July and haven't really seen anything. . . It makes me glad that hubs is a hunter and we've got a freezer full of venison.   I really expected to him to see more yahoo's out there who didn't know what they were doing hunting this year--but actually he said they saw fewer folks.  I guess the ones who "come up" from the city didn't as much.  I am betting there will be an uptick in locals who haven't touched their rifle in years hitting the hills this coming fall. . .

As for the sugar--I guess I better pick up a couple of the 25lb bags next time I'm at the big box stores. . .

[hoosiermom]

And I just heard on the radio that the Mississippi is shut down for a 3rd day due to the barge/oil incident.  Probably not good for river transportation...  And this is on top of the problems the Mississippi has had w/ the low water levels..

[rikkrack]

WOW, dunno what even to say. Could it ever get this bad here?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korean-cannibalism-fears-amid-claims-starving-people-forced-to-desperate-measures-8468781.html

Makes you want to put a bigger garden in just in case

[TexasGirl]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-14/goldman-sachs-sees-2012-13-global-cocoa-shortage-of-100-000-tons.html
Goldman Sachs Sees 2012-13 Global Cocoa Shortage of 100,000 Tons

Cedar

At least 100% (powdered) cocao bean stores very well, some folks claim it's like salt or sugar when stored with desiccant and O₂ absorbers.

As for the sugar--I guess I better pick up a couple of the 25lb bags next time I'm at the big box stores. . .

FWIW, Look for "cane sugar."  If it doesn't say "cane" on the label, it's most likely GMO beet sugar.

~TG

[Cedar]

FWIW, Look for "cane sugar."  If it doesn't say "cane" on the label, it's most likely GMO beet sugar.

Yeppers. 99.9999999999% of the time.

Cedar

[Hootie]

FWIW, Look for "cane sugar."  If it doesn't say "cane" on the label, it's most likely GMO beet sugar.

~TG

didn't know that. good point!

[TexDaddy]

I never buy any sugar that is not Imperial Pure Cane Sugar, and it is 100% GMO free.

[Oil Lady]

WOW, dunno what even to say. Could it ever get this bad here?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korean-cannibalism-fears-amid-claims-starving-people-forced-to-desperate-measures-8468781.html

Makes you want to put a bigger garden in just in case

North Korea has had reports of isolated cannibalism happening in and around the labor camps for at least a decade now. Usually these stories involved a pregnant woman who gave birth to a stillborn child, and the parents opted to eat the child rather than starve.

But it now seems the cannibalism in that nation might be growing. Not just still born babies, and not just the labor camps.

[Cedar]

But it now seems the cannibalism in that nation might be growing. Not just still born babies, and not just the labor camps.

I don't remember if I posted it here, but North Korea's government apparently rations its food through the government and you can only get food through the government. And the government only allows 700 calories per person per day for years. Where most people require 1,200-2,000 a day.

Cedar

[Cedar]

From my crop reports site:

CORN, SOY RISE ON ARGENTINE CROP WEATHER WORRY
Corn futures climbed to a seven-week high and soybeans a six-week top as concerns increased that dry weather will cut production in major exporter Argentina. Worries about dryness, coupled with technical and fund buying, also overshadowed weakening demand for corn used to make ethanol, traders said.

U.S. ethanol production slumped to its lowest level since the government started collecting data more than two years ago,
according to the Energy Information Administration. "The dry growing conditions are attracting a lot ofattention," said Tomm Pfitzenmaier, analyst for Summit Commodity Brokerage. "There is little rain forecasted there for the next two weeks and they have already gone four weeks without rainfall."

Cedar

[Cedar]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2012/oct/14/un-global-food-crisis-warning
UN warns of looming worldwide food crisis in 2013

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), designated the entire state of Indiana, which includes 92 counties, as a primary natural disaster area due to damages and losses caused by the combined effects of excessive heat, frost, freeze and drought that began Feb. 1, 2012, and continues. Agricultural producers in contiguous counties in adjacent states are also eligible for low-interest emergency loans.

AEP River Operations LLC was not using all of its towboats and moved workers around to find work for them as drought reduced the number of barges moving on the Mississippi River. Profits that would normally be generated in the previous year were not available this January to sustain the company until work picks up. The vice president of Gulf operations for American Commercial stated that the drought cost the company roughly $27 million in lost business and revenue as boats and workers sit idle. The company would normally be hiring in January, but is not this year. Washington Post (D.C.), Jan. 14, 2013

The corn surplus carryover was just 602 million bushels, as drought in 2012 reduced corn production, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The amount is quite a bit lower than the carryover last year, which was 900 million bushels. High corn prices near $8 per bushel are possible throughout 2013. Des Moines Register (Iowa), Jan. 12, 2013. Affected Areas Alaska; Alabama; Arkansas; Arizona; California; Colorado; Connecticut; District of Columbia; Delaware; Florida; Georgia; Hawaii; Iowa; Idaho; Illinois; Indiana; Kansas; Kentucky; Louisiana; Massachusetts; Maryland; Maine; Michigan; Minnesota; Missouri; Mississippi; Montana; North Carolina; North Dakota; Nebraska; New Hampshire; New Jersey; New Mexico; Nevada; New York; Ohio; Oklahoma; Oregon; Pennsylvania; Rhode Island; South Carolina; South Dakota; Tennessee; Texas; Utah; Virginia; Vermont; Washington; Wisconsin; West Virginia; Wyoming.

January 10, 2013 - The U.S. Department of Agriculture declared 597 counties in portions of 14 states as primary natural disaster areas, due to severe (D2) drought for at least eight weeks and heat. The primary counties were in Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas and Utah.

Cedar

[Cedar]

Not that I am unhappy it is Cargill (think of them as Monsanto friends)

Drought has contributed to the shrinking of the cattle population in the U.S., leading Cargill Inc. to announce that it will “indefinitely idle” a beef processing plant in Plainview, Texas on Feb. 1. Roughly 2,000 people work at the plant. The U.S. has a greater capacity for beef processing than is needed since the cattle herd has been on a downward trend in recent years and has reached its lowest point since 1952. StarTribune (Minn.), Jan. 17, 2013

[Cedar]

A POET Biorefining plant in Macon, Missouri was struggling to get sufficient supplies of corn for ethanol production and opted to stop production on Feb. 1, 2013. The facility will remain open for plant upgrades after Feb. 1 with all employees working. The plant spokesman said, “There's just really no corn in the immediate [Macon] area available. It proved to be difficult to find that corn at a competitive price." It cost too much to ship corn in from other parts of the country. The plant will reopen when reasonably priced corn becomes available in the area. Cape Girardeau Southeast Missourian (Mo.), Jan. 28, 2013

An ethanol plant belonging to White Energy stopped production on January 7, due to the high cost of grains, according to the vice president of the company. The plant’s 41 employees will do some maintenance work and clean for the time being. Production will remain at a standstill through the end of the first quarter and possibly until October. A couple of weeks ago, a beef processing plant in Plainview announced that it would close indefinitely since there was less demand for beef processing as drought continues to shrink the beef herd. According to Google Maps, Plainview had a population of 22,194 people in the 2000 census. KJTV-TV 34 Fox Lubbock (Texas), Jan. 29, 2013

http://www.chron.com/news/us/article/Ethanol-industry-turns-to-plant-residue-scraps-4237997.php?cmpid=usworldhcat
DES MOINES, Iowa

Cedar