Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)

[cheryl1]

1 1/2 days of harvesting left. Our personal field made 13 bushels per acre. (should be high 40's). I'll let ya'll know what our overall average is when we're done. On the bright side......I prepped for this 

[Cedar]

http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/wlds-got-a-wheat-problem_2-ar27889

Mother Nature is bringing the pain to a sector that's already facing a tight world supply situation and, as it gets tighter, prices could be just getting started on their upward climb.

It's too dry in the U.S., Britain, eastern Europe and Australia. And, it's too wet in Argentina, where farmers are struggling to get what crop they have harvested. No matter what the weather extreme, it's creating a consistent likely outcome: Less wheat on the world market in the coming months.

Cedar

[Frugal Upstate]

...it's creating a consistent likely outcome: Less wheat on the world market in the coming months.[/i]

Cedar

I guess I need to consider buying another couple of bags of wheat. . .

[LdMorgan]

Never lose track of the fact that government figures lie. In the Land of the Free, famine isn't supposed to happen.

A Soviet analyst pointed out (correctly) that the US has had quite a few famines. They just don't get the air-time necessary to make them household topics.

News ignored is news that never happened.

Right now we're in the worst drought in our recorded history, but the gubbermint is putting out figures that would  make Stalin blush.

All we need now are a few five-year plans.

Buy wheat. Buy corn. The lives (and sacred fortunes) you save will be your own.

Keep in mind that the US is now a net food importer...

...and things will get worse before they get better.

http://www.drought.gov/drought/content/products-current-drought-and-monitoring-drought-indicators/us-drought-monitor

[Cedar]

In the Land of the Free, famine isn't supposed to happen.

It has happened in North America more times than most people even have an inkling about.

• 1130's - The Anasazi people had a great drought and famine, the whole civilization was lost.Climate change is thought to have led to the emigration of Chacoans and the eventual abandonment of the canyon, beginning with a 50-year drought in 1130. Some suggest after approximately 1150, North America experienced significant climatic change in the form of a 300-year drought called the Great Drought.
• In the 1500's there was a drought that lasted decades, but no real records exist of how many died from starvation, but yes, there was alot.
• 1609 Jamestown, the colonists spent little time farming. Food supplies dwindled. Malaria and the harsh winter besieged the colonists, as well. After the first year, only 38 of the original 144 had survived.
• It happened in 1816 in "The Year Without a Summer". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer When people were eating grass and dirt as there was nothing else to eat.  65,000 people died soon after of disease or starvation.
• It has during the Great Depression when 7 million people died and also 5 million farmers were booted off their farms.
  http://www.livinghistoryfarm.org/farminginthe30s/water_01.html
  “Few people know about five million American farmers (about a million families) whom banks ousted from them lands because of debts. The US government did not provide them with land, work, social aid, pension – nothing.”
  
  “Every sixth American farmer was affected by famine. People were forced to leave their homes and go to nowhere without any money and any property" No one hears about the US Citizens who migrated out of the country.

Cedar

[Cedar]

Northern farmers who depend on snowpack to moisten the soil before spring planting haven't had much luck, as Midwest cities in Nebraska, Iowa and elsewhere are recording less snow than ever by this time of year. Chicago and Milwaukee haven't had measurable snow at all this season
http://www.seattlepi.com/news/texas/article/US-drought-levels-off-after-2-weeks-of-worsening-4096836.php

Cedar

[Cedar]

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/in-the-news/us-drought-2012-farm-and-food-impacts.aspx#consumers

Cedar

[Frugal Upstate]

Cedar-thanks so much for continuing to update this thread with links/articles as you come across them in  your research.  I really appreciate it.

[Cedar]

Grains futures rose on Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade. Wheat for March delivery rose 5.50 cents to $8.14 a bushel; March corn rose 10.50 cents to $7.3075 a bushel; March oats rose 2.75 cents to $3.8975 a bushel; while January soybeans jumped 19.50 cents to $14.96 a bushel. Prices for wheat, corn and soybeans rose Friday as traders worried that the devastating drought of the summer could be repeated next year. Prices for all three agricultural commodities spiked over the summer as crops were damaged by a long drought throughout the Midwest.  On Friday, Alan Knuckman, chief market strategist at Optionshop in Chicago, noted the unusual lack of snow there so far this season. That's troublesome, Knuckman said, because the snow is needed to help replenish the soil's moisture. The dearth of snow could signal a second straight dry season.

"Now, as it looks, the drought problem could be a recurring theme," Knuckman said in an interview. In a research note, he warned of "another potential price shock of possibly epic proportions" in agriculture

February live cattle rose 1.13 cent to $1.3260 a pound.

Remember, these prices are not retail what we get it for. It will be higher than this.

However, raw sugar and arabica coffee hit their lowest levels in more than two years on concerns about surplus supplies. Orange juice was one market that bucked the broadly lower trend in commodities, rising nearly 3 percent to hit highs not seen since April.

More fine reading:
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/f/food_prices/index.html
http://invezz.com/news/commodities/946-bad-crop-pushes-wholesale-uk-grain-prices-to-record-high
http://stlouis.cbslocal.com/2012/12/07/illinois-climatologist-expects-us-drought-through-2013/
http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/will-drought-stretch-into-2013_2-ar26335

Argentina down 30% http://www.farming.co.uk/news/article/7683

Siberia is not the only problem with reduced wheat production. Wheat production in almost every other breadbasket region – Ukraine, Australia, Argentina and the US – is in trouble because of bad weather. As a result, global wheat supply will fall in the 2012-13 season to 661m tonnes, well below consumption of 688m tonnes, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7cbc024c-2998-11e2-a5ca-00144feabdc0.html




Cedar

[cheryl1]

We ended up with about a 40% yield overall. But, prices are going up, up, up so it will probably even out to near normal income.

[Cedar]

We ended up with about a 40% yield overall. But, prices are going up, up, up so it will probably even out to near normal income.

So how many bushels did you end up not being able to put into the food chain personally? Or what is your average yields?

I am glad that if will work out for the farmers in the end and they won't loose too much income, but for the grocery retail it is gonna hurt.

Our of curiosity, do you store any of your crops for your family consumption?

Cedar

[cheryl1]

Here is my rough guesstimate (I am not the farms record keeper and never want to be!)- approx 2500 acres of soybeans at a loss of 20 bushels per acre=50,000 fewer bushels than normal. 2500 acres of corn at 80 bushels per acre= 320,000 fewer bushels of corn. We have our own grain bins, so we store our own grain until we truck it to town to sell.

[Cedar]

http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/21/news/economy/milk-prices/index.html?iid=HP_LN&hpt=hp_t3

Cedar

[Morning Sunshine]

http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/21/news/economy/milk-prices/index.html?iid=HP_LN&hpt=hp_t3

Cedar

great - the government sees a problem, organizes a fix, and then makes the prob worse.  I need a cow.

[Cedar]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/12/30/short-term-agreement-reached-for-farm-legislation/?hpt=hp_bn3

Short term dairy agreement. But they may not vote on it until tonight.... along with the other bill thingy. 

Cedar

[Cedar]

Mississippi dropping faster and the  the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers now projects river levels may fall to a point at which many tugboats can’t operate by Jan. 3 or Jan. 4.

http://www.agweb.com/article/mississippi_river_recedes_faster_than_expected_shippers_say/

Cedar

[Cedar]

Feeder Cattle
   Jan-2013    152.575   +0.550
   Mar-2013    155.375   +0.650
   Apr-2013    157.425   +0.625

Cedar

[Cedar]

October 2012.  In North America, the intense drought remains in the U.S. Midwest while the Pacific Northwest conditions eased. In Europe, drought eased slightly in the south and west, particularly in Spain and around Hungary. In Asia, drought remained nearly the same, with slight easing through central Russia. In South America, drought remained nearly the same as last month, impacting most of the continent with the exception of the West Coast and the area around northern Argentina. Likewise, much of non-equatorial Africa is experiencing drought. In Australia, drought continues in the west and intensified in the central and eastern parts of the continent again this month.



Russia and the UK have been having huge floods which have been effecting some grain planting.


World Top Ten Countries by Wheat Production current status
China    115,115,364 - Drought
India    80,680,000 - Drought
Russia       61,739,800 - Flooding
USA       60,314,300 - Drought
France    38,332,200 - Floods
Canada    26,847,600 - seems ok
Germany    25,190,300 - Not sure status
Pakistan    24,033,000 - Not sure status
Australia    21,656,000 - Drought
Turkey    20,600,000 - Drought

Cedar

[Louisiana Suvivor]

that graph is kinda scary Ceder. the sad thing is people in the mainstream don't realise what's going on. all they seee  is the prices going up...thank god we prep. times are gonna get squirrelly.

[Sweethearts Mom]

are we stil exporting? and if so how does stopping that effect US food prices?

[Cedar]

are we stil exporting? and if so how does stopping that effect US food prices?

From Dec.
http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf


Cedar

[cheryl1]

We are still exporting. The Chinese have been buying huge contracts, canceling them, and then repurchasing after the price is driven down.

[Sweethearts Mom]

So with our own food prices going up, why would we not simply not export?

[cheryl1]

Because the goal of business is not to make sure food prices stay artificially low in America. The goal is to make money-sell to the highest bidder.

[flippydidit]

Because the goal of business is not to make sure food prices stay artificially low in America. The goal is to make money-sell to the highest bidder.

.....cough....federal subsidies?......cough....

[cheryl1]

Federal subsidies help decide what gets grown, but I can sell my grain to who I want to. If one elevator is taking ethanol contracts for $7, one is buying feed corn for $7.10,and the other is trying to fill a Chinese contract for $7.15- bottom line says my grain is going to China. It's business. Fertilizer and seed companies aren't going to give me a break on input costs because I chose to sell to fill contract A vs. contract B for moral reasons. Profitmargins are pretty thin in farming.

if lawmakers prevent exports, then that means they just nationalized the food supply. I disagree with farm subsidies and wish they would go away, but that would mean that consumers would no longer be shielded from the true cost of food.

[Morgan96]

Thailand Inflation Quickens to 13-Month High on Food Prices
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-02/thai-inflation-quickens-to-13-month-high-on-rising-food-prices.html

Along with the monsoon, Thailand has seasonal riot and unrest.   High food prices aren't bound to help.

[Cedar]

http://rt.com/news/food-price-speculation-banks-411/

"The year 2013 may see another price hike, following the worst draught in the US in 50 years and poor harvests in Russia and Ukraine. The UN has warned that the world may be approaching a major hunger crisis."

"While nearly a billion people go hungry, Goldman Sachs bankers are feeding their own bonuses by betting on the price of food. Financial speculation is fueling food price spikes and Goldman Sachs is the No, 1 culprit," Christine Haigh of the WDM told the British newspaper The Independent.  -- the same people who were the catalyst of the Great Recession which is the problem we are in now.

They argue that the amount of speculative money is too big in proportion to the physical inventories of the commodities. Deregulation in the late 1990s allowed financial institutions to bet on food prices,  resulting in some $200 billion being poured into the market.

Cedar

[Cedar]

http://www.rrstar.com/news/x1781258214/Food-prices-expected-to-increase-because-of-drought-cold
Food prices expected to increase because of drought, cold

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=153&sid=6229824
Wheat gains on concern dry weather will harm crops

Cedar

[Cedar]

The Plains: The region continued to experience an overall dry pattern during the past seven-day period with the exception of some light-to-moderate rainfall over portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. In Oklahoma, conditions in the extreme southeastern region saw improvements from Extreme Drought (D3) to Severe Drought (D2) as two-to-three inches of rain fell. Conversely, in north-central Oklahoma persistent dry conditions and record low reservoir conditions led Payne County to declare a state of emergency as Lone Chimney Lake receded to eleven feet below normal. The reservoir provides water to nearly 16,000 residents in seven counties. In south-central Kansas, recent rains led to a minor reduction in an area of Exceptional Drought (D4), while the rest of the Plains region is unchanged on this week’s map.  Temperatures were below normal over the western half of the Plains, while the eastern half was above normal for the week.


Three month precipitation prediction


Cedar