Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)

[Nicodemus]

I changed it with my awesome new superpowers! 

[Cedar]

*looks at Nic's new badge" O000000000000000000000h.. aaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh..
Thanks Nic..

Cedar

[archer]

I meant....
Corn price went up 0.25 cents  a bushel. Archer could you fix it above?

Cedar

someone beat me to it.. darn kids

[Cedar]

I finally found what I have been hunting for over a week on...

"The latest forecast from the National Weather Service, however, predicts that the drought will continue and even intensify across much of the United States through November. The drought, Rippey said, could extend into next year. “There is the distinct possibility that we could be dry in certain geographic parts of the Midwest in 2013,” Rippey said, and “they really can’t afford another mild, dry winter.”

Cedar

[Cedar]

Experimental Unofficial Two-class Monthly & Seasonal Climate Outlooks
Issued: 16 Aug 2012

The contours on the map show the total probability (%) of two categories, above, indicated by the letter "A", and below, indicated by the letter "B". At any point on the map, the sum of the probabilities of these two categories is 100%.

For any particular location, and season, these two categories are defined from the 30 observations from 1981-2010. The coldest or driest 1/2 (15 years) define the B category, the warmest or wettest 1/2 (15 years) defines the A category.
When the forecasters decide that one of the extreme categories, say above (A), is the most likely one, they assign probabilities which exceed 50% to that category. This means that the chance of the opposite category is the remaining part of the total (100%). In regions where the forecasters have no indications favoring either A, or B, the chance of these two categories is defined to be 50% each, and the region is labeled "EC", which stands for equal chances.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/two_class.php

Cedar

[Cedar]

Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi believes there is a significant chance for particularly frigid winters in 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 into 2014-2015.  Bastardi said these winters could be similar to winters of the late 1970s.   He said, “While the most consistent of the cold is to the north, severe bouts of cold deep into Texas and Florida would be capable of affecting agriculture more so than we’ve seen in that last 20 years or so.”

http://unofficialnetworks.com/winters-2012-2013-2014-frigid-104605/

Cedar

[Cedar]

From one of the links I posted up above..

“If we put together the combination of La Nina, El Nino, La Nina again and we look at what happened when that happened before with a cold Pacific, and we also understand that the volcanoes may be involved along with the low sunspot activity, one could come to the conclusion that a series of very cold winters … could be on the way,” he said.   Bastardi said this is all part of a natural pattern of reversal which he believes will lead to a crash in global temperatures over the next nine months, from the very warm levels set off by El Nino—as forecast globally by AccuWeather.com."

I know about "The Year without a Summer" from a variety of corn I have from that era called "Roy's Calais".. it was snowing in New England all summer.. so there was no summer. This happened in 1816 and was caused by "a combination of a historic low in solar activity with a volcanic winter event, the latter caused by a succession of major volcanic eruptions", something which they say is happening now and there is a known lull in the solar activity coming up. http://www.dandantheweatherman.com/Bereklauw/yearnosummer.html

I am not sure which way it is going, but it doesn't look like a happy medium at this time. Hopefully the stats and forecast change for the better.

Cedar

[Cedar]

Romania lost 50% of its crops http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19292597 There are fears that the prolonged drought could affect next year's harvest and economy.

Wales http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-19326439 Farmers in Wales say they are facing a difficult year ahead, with a summer that has seen very few sunny days and a deluge of rain has hit crops like maize and wheat and pushed up food production costs. More from Wales http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-19269312

In general http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18857765

France http://www.france24.com/en/20120814-debate-part-2-biofuels-energy-drought-food-prices

Russia - Russia’s inflation will also rise from 6.5 per cent to 7.2 per cent, the bank says, as a result of low crop yields http://rt.com/business/news/morgan-gdp-cut-764/

Syria http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/03/03/437051/syria-climate-change-drought-and-social-unrest/?mobile=nc

Italy http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-13/italy-s-crop-damage-from-drought-seen-close-to-1-billion-euros.html

BC, Canada http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/07/24/bc-okanagan-crop-cherry-peach.html

Ontario, Canada http://www.windsorstar.com/news/With+Large+hail+causes+carnage+crops+near+Erie+shoreline/6879101/story.html

Germany http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/mouse-plague-hits-central-germany-a-843811.html Where is a Pied Piper when you need one?

India http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-15/rice-harvest-in-india-set-to-decline-as-drought-curbs-planting.html Drought fears loom in India as monsoon stalls http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/india/120725/domestic-drought-global-food-crisis

North & South Korea http://www.aljazeera.com/video/asia/2012/06/2012626122749189863.html Food prices across the country are increasing by an average of 20 to 30 per cent.

China http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4ki86NcDdI

Droughts have struck food-producing regions in the United States, Russia, China, North Korea, and South Korea, raising the prospect of higher commodity prices and localized food shortages. http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2012/world/north-america/droughts-hit-world-agricultural-regions-without-water-u-s-corn-crop-faces-setbacks/


The world may face a food crisis very soon as drought parches corn crops in the U.S., IFPRI’s director-general Shenggen Fan said Aug. 14. Corn surged to a record $8.49 a bushel on Aug. 10.


There are lots and lots and lots of crop failures from all over the world this year.

Cedar

[Cedar]

Wednesday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.16 ^
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 7.9875 ^
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.03 ^

Thursday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.22 ^ 0.6 cents overnight
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.13 ^ 0.15 cents overnight
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.345 ^ 0.31 cents overnight

Friday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.495 ^ 0.27 cents overnight
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.235 ^ 0.10 cents overnight
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.5075 ^ 0.27 cents overnight

Monday:
Wheat Price in US$ 9.55 per bushel:  ^ 0.06 cents since Friday
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.40 ^ 0.16 cents since Friday
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.88 ^ 0.38 cents  since Friday

In 4 days,
Wheat price went up 0.39 cents a bushel
Corn price went up .41 cents  a bushel
Soybeans price went up 0.85 cents a bushel

A bushel of wheat weighs 60 pounds.
A bushel of corn weighs 56 pounds.
A bushel of soybeans weighs 60 pounds.

Cedar

[Outdoorfury]

thinking i am going to go get some organic chicken feed tonight

[rikkrack]

We just planted more buckwheat and other plants to try and NOT buy feed anymore for our chickens.

Already switched fish in aquaponics from pellets to duckweed which we grow.

Getting to expensive to feed our own animals which we were growing to feed ourselves.

And the snowball continues....

[Cedar]

WHOA... One leftist mayor in Spain's Cordoba province takes his villagers on food raids.
http://www.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_t3#/video/world/2012/08/21/pkg-goodman-spanish-mayor-robin-hood.cnn

Cedar

[rikkrack]

While understanding it is a protest, that is just asking for trouble. I can see this going wrong in so many different directions.

Perhaps this may make some people wake up. Not just in governments but some of those grasshoppers.

Cedar, you seem to find all kinds of great information. Thanks so much for bringing it to our attention.

[Cedar]

I was talking to friends on the phone last night...

In Tennessee chicken feed went up $1 for 50 pounds when my one set of friends bought some yesterday.
In Pennsylvania my friend reported chicken feed went up $3 for 50 pounds

Cedar

P.S. You're welcome. I am looking it up for myself and just putting it here for you viewing 'pleasure'

[Cedar]

The world's top wheat importers have stepped up purchases in recent weeks amid concerns over diminishing supplies from the
Black Sea region. After imports by Egypt and Algeria, Iran's state grains agency has in the past week discreetly purchased around 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat, largely from the European Union, Baltic Sea and Black Sea regions. Russian grain yields have fallen 27.5 percent from last year. As of Monday, Russia's Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday, as a drought which has raised fears of a curb on grain exports hits the country.

Cedar

[Cedar]

Wednesday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.16 ^
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 7.9875 ^
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.03 ^

Thursday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.22 ^ 0.6 cents overnight
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.13 ^ 0.15 cents overnight
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.345 ^ 0.31 cents overnight

Friday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.495 ^ 0.27 cents overnight
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.235 ^ 0.10 cents overnight
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.5075 ^ 0.27 cents overnight

Monday:
Wheat Price in US$ 9.55 per bushel:  ^ 0.06 cents since Friday
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.40 ^ 0.16 cents since Friday
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.88 ^ 0.38 cents  since Friday

Tuesday
Wheat Price in US$ 9.7225 per bushel:  ^ 0.20 cents since yesterday
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.5825 ^ 0.18 cents since yesterday
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 18.375 ^ 0.49 cents since yesterday

In 5 days,
Wheat price went up 0.59 cents a bushel
Corn price went up .59 cents  a bushel
Soybeans price went up 1.34 cents a bushel

Cedar

[nkawtg]

So consider Iran. They just purchased 400,000 tons of wheat. At 33 bushels of wheat per ton that's 13,200,000 bushels of wheat. The cost of waiting 5 days would have meant a cost increase of 7.8 million dollars (had they used dollars).
Using Tuesdays prices that 13 million bushels of wheat would have cost them $128.3 million dollars.

[Cedar]

Iran's state grains agency has in the past week discreetly purchased around 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat, largely from the European Union, Baltic Sea and Black Sea regions.

So consider Iran.

I just reconsidered Iran after you posted that and after I posted this
http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=37053.msg417146#msg417146

Maybe they are not just stocking to think about food for their people if there is lack of grain. Maybe they are stocking for war.

Cedar

[TexasGirl]

I just reconsidered Iran after you posted that and after I posted this
http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=37053.msg417146#msg417146

Maybe they are not just stocking to think about food for their people if there is lack of grain. Maybe they are stocking for war.

Cedar

I hate to say it, but their people/government appears to be using more common sense than ours.

~TG

[Cedar]

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-06/rice-hoard-offers-world-respite-as-food-costs-surge

At a time when droughts are driving corn and soybeans to all-time highs, farmers are set to reap a record rice crop and Thailand is building the biggest stockpile in at least five decades, helping avoid a global food crisis.

Cedar

[Cedar]

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL2E8JFH6020120820

The latest run-up in grain prices comes at a time when the world economy is slowing, the euro zone is in turmoil and unemployment is higher almost everywhere.

Cedar

[Oil Lady]

Hooray for Thailand. (I mean that sincerely, BTW. Good on them. Hopefully no one invades them and steals their harvest.)

I must say, a lot of the chatter in this thread (and actually a lot of the rest of TSP) repeatedly brings my musings back to the Biblical story of Joseph and his life in Egypt. If ever there was a Prepper story in the Bible, that one is assuredly it.


(And IIRC, a lot of those scary-rich insider type people that we like to call "the elites" have been making plans for more than 5 years now to abandon the sinking ship of the USA and flee to places such as ..... Thailand. Not just Thailand, but places in Asia in and around China and India where tomorrow's economic powerhouse assuredly lies. They want a seat at tomorrow's financial table afterall, and a seat for their children as well. So .... just like Egypt plundered the whole of the known world during their killer grain selling of the Seven Years of Famine as found in the Book of Genesis, and thus Egypt became one of the most powerful nations in that part of the world, so too will key parts of Asia be able to plunder the whole world, I imagine, over the next several years. )
 

[Cedar]

Fear not rising food prices

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Fear+rising+food+prices/7124613/story.html

The full impact of the commodity price hikes for packaged and processed foods will likely take six to nine months to move through to retail food prices. However, on a global scale, the story is very different. We should recognize that the rest of the developing world will be hit harder by this drought than Canada and the United States

The fears of embargoes and governmental knee-jerk reactions, like we have seen in the past, can make the situation worse and lead to new food riots.

Cedar

[Cedar]

I must say, a lot of the chatter in this thread (and actually a lot of the rest of TSP) repeatedly brings my muisngs back to the Biblical story of Joseph and his life in Egypt. If ever there was a Prepper story in the Bible, that one is assuredly it.

And weirdly enough, I just found this http://newsroom.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/23/should-the-u-s-emulate-the-biblical-joseph-and-store-grain/

...and in there, it admits we have no grain reserves "At one time, the U.S. government did maintain physical reserves of grain, but today opts instead to hold cash reserves should it need to buy grain in the event of a crisis."

Cedar

[Oil Lady]

And weirdly enough, I just found this http://newsroom.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/23/should-the-u-s-emulate-the-biblical-joseph-and-store-grain/

Cedar

Ha! 

[Cedar]

Interesting article from 2011, BEFORE the drought and higher prices.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/10/business/10crop.html

2011 - The Department of Agriculture reported Wednesday that the ethanol industry’s projected orders this year rose 8.4 percent, to 13.01 billion bushels, after record-high production in December and January. That means the United States will have about 675 million bushels of corn left at the end of the year. That is about 5 percent of all corn that will be consumed, the lowest surplus level since 1996.

2011- Corn prices have already doubled in the last six months, rising from $3.50 a bushel to more than $7 a bushel. (Today in 2012 it is $8.6025 per bushel.)

2011- “I think we have a chance to test the all-time high” price of $7.65 a bushel, a Telvent DTN analyst, John Sanow, said. The tight level of reserves leaves little margin for error if there are production problems this year, which could send prices higher quickly, he said. (Again, today in 2012 it is $8.6025 per bushel.)

Cedar

[Frugal Upstate]

I find this all fascinating, in a "I can't look away" kind of way.  Continued thanks to Cedar for all the research.

So I am now wondering-while the mainstream is just starting to realize the effects the drought will have on corn related prices, is it also time for me to put more into purchasing wheat and wheat products such as noodles for LTS?  I had felt pretty comfortable with where I was at for wheat but now wonder. . .

[Cedar]

I find this all fascinating, in a "I can't look away" kind of way.  Continued thanks to Cedar for all the research.

Tell me about it.. and you're welcome.

Cedar

[Cedar]

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/08/23/corn-futures-drop-on-export-sales-report-2/

“If anything, yields are being confirmed as coming in as bad, if not worse” than government estimates, Britt said. “It causes some profit taking to come into the market […] at these price levels it’s [corn] going to trade with a lot more volatility and emotion.”

Cedar

[Cedar]

Grains futures, livestock prices fall

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505245_162-57498130/grains-futures-livestock-prices-fall/

I am interested in the livestock prices in this article. Buy now through October if you can.

Cedar