Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)

[Cedar]

Cedar

[Cedar]

“Near term, there is an adequate supply of meat from all species,” Michael Martin, a spokesman for Minneapolis-based Cargill, said in an e-mail. “As we move into 2013, the supply of beef, in particular, could be constrained by the U.S. herd being the smallest in 60 years.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-10/ranchers-send-cows-to-slaughter-as-u-s-drought-sears-pasture.html

Cedar -- who is researching this for the paper and adding stuff in here which is why there is so much of me posting stuff the last 2 days on this subject

[Cedar]

Now they are talking 8% food cost increase http://extension.missouri.edu/news/DisplayStory.aspx?N=1488 not just 3-4%

Cedar

[Cedar]

And buy your gardening seed now for 2013.. this below is from Christy from Seed Saver's Exchange

"The heat and drought is presenting quite the challenge at Seed Savers Exchange! We're having a difficult time providing supplemental water to the different garden plots, and plenty of the plants just cannot handle the heat. In the Diversity Garden, we're watering as much as we can - but even then, the beans haven't been producing a lot. I'm also doing the Corn Hand Pollination, and our corn is suffering a great deal - many of the varieties are shorter and having a hard time producing viable tassels and ears at the same time. We'll see what the final affect was at the end of the year!"

Cedar

[Outdoorfury]

thanks cedar. Plus 1 for always being awesome and giving sweet info.

[Frugal Upstate]

And buy your gardening seed now for 2013.. this below is from Christy from Seed Saver's Exchange
. . . Cedar

Cedar:

#1-wow, I hadn't even thought about it effecting the seed supply.
#2-Researching for the paper? Do you write for the paper or are you putting in an editorial? And while I'm asking-what the heck is gleaners?
#3-Thanks so much for continuing to post these links.  I used quite a bit of the ones you've shared in the post on my blog (which I think woke up a few folks) and have continued to share things on my Facebook page-I get a lot of "Wow, I had no idea" type comments from readers.  Still.  It's great to have reliable factual links to share with them.  The more folks who wake up and stock up, the better.

Jenn

[Cedar]

#2-Researching for the paper? Do you write for the paper or are you putting in an editorial? And while I'm asking-what the heck is gleaners?

I work as the agricultural reporter for 2 local newspapers for the last 2 years, the editor for a newspaper in Canada for 2 years before I moved back south and for a homesteading magazine for 7. I am a full time employee of all, not a freelance. Currently 90% of what I write about for the papers is always on agriculture, unique crops and how agriculture effects us, and about farm families in our community.

Gleaners is explained in various posts here on TSP I have done from time to time, but in a nutshell... "Gleaning goes back to ancient days where it was the of collecting of leftover crops from farmers' fields after the main harvested was in. Gleaners today also take in unwanted household items, building supplies, as well as shortdated groceries or foods which have damaged boxes so the item did not sell, but the contents are still perfect. Gleaners also takes their truck and their volunteers out to the fields from spring until autumn to pick from local farmers who have generously donated the crops for various reasons. Some of the crops have been picked already and there are more fruits or vegetables still in the field, or inclimate weather has prevented those crops to be harvested by machine. Some of the farmers plant a certain amount just for the Food Bank and Gleaning groups. "

We are the labor force who brings the crops into the Food Banks. Traditionally, those who pick get to take 50% home and then 50% goes to the Food Bank.

Cedar

[Oil Lady]

Cedar PLEASE let us know when you have posted this news piece you are writing about the US and global agricultural industries and this terrible drout. I MUST read it.

[Prepper Recon]

I hadn't even thought about the drought affecting seeds. Thanks!

[Cedar]

Cedar PLEASE let us know when you have posted this news piece you are writing about the US and global agricultural industries and this terrible drout. I MUST read it.

I am not necessarily writing one on this subject at this time, but I keep track of trends, so I know what I need to write on.  The current one I am working on is ...  The Oregon Department of Agriculture is railroading a policy change to accommodate the biofuel industry at the cost of seed-growers and fresh vegetable producers. The Oregon Department of Agriculture intends to file for a temporary rule that places the unique and world-renowned Willamette Valley along with its abundance of vegetable-producers and seed-growers at serious risk of contamination and ruination.

Cedar

[Cedar]

Weekly Weather & Crop report
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Weekly/Wwcb/wwcb.pdf

Cedar

[archer]

thanks Cedar.

[Cedar]

I messed up. I should have done the daily price as well, so to be able to see how much it is changing daily.

    *Wheat ticks up after sliding 8 pct in 3 sessions
    * Russia's wheat sales to Egypt pressure prices
    * Soy, corn markets underpinned by tight supplies

U.S. wheat edged up on Wednesday, after suffering its biggest three-day decline since July last year in a selloff triggered by Russia's exports to Egypt in two tenders this week, which eased concerns over supplies from the Black Sea region. Corn and soybeans rose, underpinned by tightening global supplies following the U.S. grain belt's worst drought in more
than five decades.

Egypt, the world's largest wheat buyer, bought 120,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia and Ukraine on Tuesday, three days after buying 120,000 tonnes of Russian wheat at its previous tender. Russia has endured a drought that may cut its wheat harvest in the 2012/13 season by 20 percent to around 45.5 million tonnes. But the head of Russia's Grain Union last week said Russia will have enough grain for export and domestic consumption at least until the end of 2012.

Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.16 ^
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 7.9875 ^
Rice (Not listed today)
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.03 ^
Barley (Not listed today)

Cedar

[Cedar]

Sunflower production in the European Union, Russia and Ukraine will be lower than previously expected after heat and dry weather in June and July damaged the oilseed crop, Oil World wrote.

Aug 14, 2012 6:30 AM PT “The volumes lost in sunflower seed and oil are likely to be sufficiently large to have an impact on the global vegetable- oil market,” Oil World wrote. “The losses come on top of the prospective sharp decline in world production of soya oil in the next six months.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-14/european-sunflower-crop-outlook-cut-by-oil-world-on-summer-heat.html

If you like sunflower seed oil for cooking, might try to get some...

Cedar

[Cedar]

Leading members of the Group of 20 nations are prepared to trigger an emergency meeting to address soaring grain prices caused by the worst U.S. drought in more than half a century and poor crops from the Black Sea bread basket.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/13/us-food-g20-call-idUSBRE87C0EI20120813

Cedar

[nkawtg]

So the administration won't end the mandate on Ethanol which will keep corn prices high, and as I'm sure most here know, 40% of the corn crop is slated for ethanol production.
I'm so glad our great leader stepped up to the plate to inform us all that the feds will help the poor suffering farmers by buying 170 million dollars worth of pigs, chicken, and lamb. Wow I'm impressed, seeings how in 2007 the U.S. sales of hogs and pigs totaled $18.1 billion.
So this administration spends more of my tax dollars and wastes corn on ethanol.
What a country...

Sources:
http://washingtonexaminer.com/examiner-editorial-to-protect-ethanol-obama-seeks-to-inflate-meat-prices/article/2504906#.UCu5291lREP
http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2007/Online_Highlights/Fact_Sheets/Production/hogsandpigs.pdf

[Cedar]

So if they cut back on ethanol.. even to 20%, 10%, 5%, or add none in...  what do they replace the enthanol with? Gasoline? What would the regular gasoline cost per gallon then if they leave it out? Would barrels go up even more? Would there be more excuses of 'refinery fires', to jack the prices back up? It was $4.00/reg here again this morning. With the rivers being low, the larger barges are not able to get through either. It also looked like diesel is rising in price again.. Fuel keeps going around and around like a vicious circle, hey?

I would think that when the country was in crisis, that ideally that Congress would have stayed in session, not blocking Farm Bills when they were in session and not gone on vacation leaving the poor farmers to do what they can until they can get some kind of relief from some source until Congress gets back in the building. Farmers dumping that many animals before they traditionally would have been put into a human food chain might mean less buyers, so that UP TO $170M might be what the US Gov't already budgets for their meat buying for the year?

This is not a unprecedented move. Federal law allows the Agriculture Department to buy meat and poultry products to help farmers and ranchers affected by natural disasters and they have done in many times in the past from other presidents. Most of the meat goes to the Department of the Defense (aka military), as well as a smaller amount to Food Banks.

Cedar

[Cedar]

And of course I was curious and had to look it up... "The military buys approximately 94 million pounds of beef, 64 million pounds of pork, and 500,000 pounds of lamb each year. That food gets eaten by troops around the world, even in combat zones like Afghanistan. "

I also have read from various sources that our 'government storage pantry' is EMPTY!! (Look up above somewhere for the full list of what they normally have historically and what they have currently in stock)... NO ONE is talking about what will happen if there is a drought, flood, locusts, blight, rust etc on the crops next year in 2013, and I am not talking just the USA. If meat prices will be higher next year, wouldn't it be smart for the US government to stock up and freeze meat this year for next year when the prices are higher? I would. Or... doh.. I am...

So the question is... is the government really being foolish in spending taxpayers money on meat now? Or are they foolish in waiting to next year to buy it if it will be more expensive for less meat in 2013? I don't know the answer, it was rhetorical.

Cedar

[Cedar]

Yesterday:

Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.16 ^

Today:
Price in US$ per bushel: 9.22 ^

Cedar

[archer]

thanks for keeping us all up to date on this Cedar!

[nkawtg]

The point I was hoping to make was the amount of money the Govt spent was really quite small. If they really wanted to stock up that number should have been 5 times that amount.

[Cedar]

Yesterday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.16 ^
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 7.9875 ^
Rice (Not listed today)
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.03 ^ 17.345
Barley (Not listed today)

Today:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.22 ^ 0.6 cents overnight
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.13 ^ 0.15 cents overnight
Rice (Not listed today)
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.345 ^ 0.31 cents overnight
Barley (Not listed today)

Cedar

[Cedar]

The point I was hoping to make was the amount of money the Govt spent was really quite small. If they really wanted to stock up that number should have been 5 times that amount.

Ideally yes..  but they may not have had any extra money allotted for it? They would have had the money for the troops and the foods banks.. so maybe that is the money which went for it.. ?

Cedar

[Thox Spuddy]

Interesting on that drought map it shows Wisconsin as 'improving'. We drove through hundreds and hundreds of acres of scorched cornfields last week. The rain that has now fallen on them isn't much good for a dead crop.

Bacon: $2.00 14 oz.
Hamburger: $1.99 for 10 lb family pack.

[Cedar]

My friend lives in Adams, WI. He said they got alot of rain there in a couple days comparably to before. Just because there is rainfall and the drought is 'improving' does not mean or have reverence to the crops.. just the soil moisture content. No.. the crops are hooped for this year.

Cedar

[Cedar]

Wrappers too?? http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/us/2012/08/16/dnt-ky-cows-eating-candy.wpsd?iref=allsearch

Cedar

[TexDaddy]

Wrappers too??...

It will all come out in the end. 

[archer]

guess that will be sweet beef

[Cedar]

Wednesday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.16 ^
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 7.9875 ^
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.03 ^ 17.345

Thursday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.22 ^ 0.6 cents overnight
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.13 ^ 0.15 cents overnight
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.345 ^ 0.31 cents overnight

Friday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.495 ^ 0.27 cents overnight
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.235 ^ 0.10 cents overnight
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.5075 ^ 0.27 cents overnight

In 3 days,
Wheat price went up 0.33 cents a bushel
Corn price went up .25 cents  a bushel
Soybeans price went up 0.47 cents a bushel

A bushel of wheat weighs 60 pounds.
A bushel of corn weighs 56 pounds.
A bushel of soybeans weighs 60 pounds.

Cedar

[Cedar]

Corn price went up .025 cents  a bushel

I meant....
Corn price went up 0.25 cents  a bushel. Archer could you fix it above?

Cedar