70% of the world's grain is now wheat and we are heavily wheat dependent worldwide, instead of other traditional grains such as barley, buckwheat, oats, rye, spelt and quinoa. And not all of the wheat produced is used for human consumption. Some of it is for livestock production for meat, milk and eggs. Industrial uses of wheat grain include starch for paste, alcohol, oil, and gluten. The straw may be used for newsprint, paperboard, and other products. I really like the "Wheatboard" and wish they would make more of it.
I know when I was taking my agricultural classes (2-4 hours a day for 4 years in the early 1980's), my Ag instructor even then said that we were overdue for a famine. One of his concerns was wheat. At that time we only had 5 major varieties of wheat grown worldwide (out of hundreds of varieties available) and if a blight had hit any one of those varieties, let alone all of those varieties, we would have been on world-wide starvation due to the dependency on wheat. I wonder what he would say about the "Terminator" wheat crops now.. which didn't exist then.
The Top Ten Wheat Producers in the World — 2010 Production Stats/2011 Projected Stats 1.
China - 112 million metric ton (15.4% of global wheat production)
Says the drought in the country’s main growing region may be prolonged. 42% of the total planted in the eight major producing provinces, has been hit by drought.
2.
India - 79 million metric ton (11.5%)
India's wheat output in 2011 is likely to hit a record of 81.47 million tons, higher than last year's 80.71 million tons
3.
United States - 68 million metric ton (9.1%)
The 2011/12 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies with lower carryin and production than in 2010/11. Beginning stocks for 2011/12 are down 14 percent from 2010/11. U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected at 2,992 million bushels, down 9 percent from 2010/11. According to NASS survey data (not final production data), estimates of this year's Soft Red Winter crop are smaller than last year's in total production in each of the states included in our sampling program. The NASS survey on production shows the estimated Missouri and Illinois crop at approximately 38% of last year's total bushels harvested. The smallest decrease compared to 2009 is Maryland at an estimated 84% of last year's total bushels harvested. Ohio, Kentucky and Virginia are estimated at 71%, 77%, and 74%, respectively, of last year's production. U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected at 2,992 million bushels, down 9 percent from 2010/11. I know alot of the grass seed farmers in my area have ripped out the grass seed production and has planted wheat on speculation. I think they did right.
4.
Russia - 64 million metric ton (7.3%)
No export this year
5.
France - 39 million metric ton (5.9%)
In a “danger zone” as drought reduces the potential harvest. France just had its second-hottest April since 1900 and one of the driest since 1953, according to the Agriculture Ministry.
6.
Canada - 29 million metric ton (4.1%)
A recovery in production and improved wheat quality in Canada is also expected to increase export competition.
7.
Germany - 26 million metric ton (3.8%)
The 2010/11 season saw a very poor start for German wheat. A heat wave followed by persistent rains rendered much of the country's spring crop suitable only for animal feed. The previous year the harvest came in at a healthy 25.2mn tonnes. They are now forecasting production in 2010/11 to fall to 23.2mn tonnes, down 7.9%
8.
Ukraine - 26 million metric ton (3.8%)
No export this year
9.
Australia - 21 million metric ton (3.4%)
Floods and Droughts
10.
Pakistan 21 million metric ton (3.4%)
Conflicting reports. Some sources say they are in their 3rd bumper crop year and other reports say Pakistan's floods have destroyed more than 500,000 tons of seed wheat, besides ruining some land, on the eve of the planting season, extending the country's agricultural concerns into next year's crop.
This is a good read and dated May 11th, 2011, the next report will come out June 9th, 2011
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdfGrass fires across the state of Missouri and Texas and are beginning to affect dairy farmers. While some pastures had already been supplemented with water from creeks, the drought has dried up many of the local creeks and prices of livestock feed have begun creeping upwards.
The Guardian reports that in 2007 approximately 40% of the world's agricultural land is seriously degraded.
Eastern Europe experienced more than 150 recorded famines between AD 1500 and 1700 and there were 100 hunger years and 121 famine years in Russia between AD 971 and 1974. Droughts and famines in Russia are known historically to have happened every 10 to 13 years, with average droughts happening every 5 to 7 years.
I actually have a corn variety in my collection from "The Year Without a Summer" that happened in 1816, in which severe summer climate abnormalities caused average global temperatures to decrease by about 0.7–1.3 °F, resulting in major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere. It is believed that the anomaly was caused by a combination of a historic low in solar activity with a volcanic winter event, the latter caused by a succession of major volcanic eruptions capped off by the Mount Tambora eruption of 1815, the largest known eruption in over 1,300 years.
Photo Above:
"Roy’s Calais" - Flint
Roy's Calais flint corn is one of Vermont's heirloom corns. It was grown by the Abenaki Indians, and was the only corn variety that survived the snows of June and hard freezes of July, 1816. It was grown by a family in Calais, Vermont since shortly after the Civil War, but was nearly lost to the world. Can be harvested in as little as 85 days. With much of the southern, midwest and western states already experiencing or about to experience severe drought (or flooding), prices of these crops have also increased:
* Corn: Up 63%
* Wheat: Up 84%
* Soybeans: Up 24%
* Sugar: Up 55%
They are projecting that milk prices will be up, cow amounts will be down, and cow production for each cow will be up (more Bovine Growth Hormones being injected?)
As I learned about the "The Year Without a Summer" (which I would never have known about if I had not added that heirloom corn to my collection and did some research on it), I am currently more concerned about the volcanic activity happening with seemingly increased activity and intensity and the countries which are all having issues at the same time. It looks like the perfect recipe for a famine to happen. It may not happen, but one more 'straw' and it very well could happen.
"As a result of the series of volcanic eruptions, crops in the above-mentioned areas had been poor for several years; the final blow came in 1815 with the eruption of Tambora. Europe, still recuperating from the Napoleonic Wars, suffered from food shortages. Food riots broke out in the United Kingdom and France, and grain warehouses were looted. The violence was worst in landlocked Switzerland, where famine caused the government to declare a national emergency. Huge storms and abnormal rainfall with floodings of the major rivers of Europe (including the Rhine) are attributed to the event, as was the frost setting in during August 1816. A major typhus epidemic occurred in Ireland between 1816 and 1819, precipitated by the famine caused by "The Year Without a Summer". It is estimated that 100,000 Irish perished during this period. A BBC documentary using figures compiled in Switzerland estimated that fatality rates in 1816 were twice that of average years, giving an approximate European fatality total of 200,000 deaths.
New England also experienced great consequences from the eruption of Tambora. The corn crop was grown significantly in New England and the eruption caused the crop to fail. It was reported that in the summer of 1816 corn ripened so badly that no more than a quarter of it was usable for food. The crop failures in New England, Canada and parts of Europe also caused the price of wheat, grains, meat, vegetables, butter, milk and flour to rise sharply."
Is it not said that history repeats itself? Even Mother Nature?
I don't think it will be any one thing which will cause problems, but as stated above in the quote, if something happens, it will be a multitude of things such as war, economic issues, crop failures lack of diversity, and the elements of natural Earth cycles.
Cedar
