Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)

[OKGranny]

LvsChant there is no inflation or rising prices. The government done said so. Just because the prices on goods I bought last year and the year before are considerably less than the ones I have bought this year that doesn't mean things are higher. I have family on social security and they didn't get a raise at the beginning of last year and they won't get one this year because there is no cost of living increase according to the government. Some of my really elderly relatives are finding themselves between a rock and a hard spot because of this since they were just making enough to squeeze by. We're helping but they don't like as it hurts their pride to have to accept help from family.

[LdMorgan]

Are the "prices" really increasing or are the global currencies falling ? 

Looking at gasoline prices this morning in pre 1964 coins, we are currently looking at about 17 cents a gallon.

AAA unleaded national average = $2.81,  Coinflation pre 1964 dime = $1.71

$2.81 / $1.71 = .164 or ..  .17 a gallon

First I was told, $1 for a mercury dime was to much, then I was told $1.25 was to high, and I was really ripped off when I bought them for $1.50.

Uh, lemme take a whack at the math here.

OK--you can buy a pre-1964 dime for $1.71. And you can buy a gallon of gas for $2.81.

So you can buy 1.643 pre-1964 dimes for $2.81.

So if you pay for today's gas in today's pre-1964 dimes, you're paying $2.81 per gallon of gas, in the form of 1.643 pre-1964 dimes.

Those pre-1964 dimes may have a face value of $0.10 each, but you're not paying $0.1643 for a gallon of today's gas, because you can't do it with an ordinary dime.

You can only do it with a piece of silver bullion that happens to be the exact size, shape, and fineness of a pre-1964 dime (because that's what it started out as.)

Back in 1964, the minimum wage was $1.25/hr, and the price of gas was about $0.16/gallon. (And even lower during price wars. Anybody remember price wars?)

So at $0.02083/minute, you had to work 7.68 minutes to buy a gallon of gas.

Now the minimum wage is $7.25 an hour and the price of gas is $2.81 a gallon.

So at $0.12083 cents per minute, you have to work 25.255 minutes to buy a gallon of gas.

So the price of gas has slightly more than tripled since 1964--when calculated in terms of how long it takes you to earn a gallon of gas while working at minimum wage.

Work was $0.0208 per minute. Now it's $0.12083/minute. It's now 5.80 times as "profitable".

Gas was $0.16/gallon. Now it's $2.81/gallon. It's now 17.562 times as expensive.

So the "face value" of dollars (per minute worked) has gone up but those minutes (and dollars) will now buy 1/3 as much as before.

That is global currencies falling and prices rising, both--at one and the same time.

Look at the same situation from another perspective: In terms of buying power. If you are working for minimum wage, you are being paid $0.41/hour in 1964 dollars.

Is it any wonder why a single breadwinner can no longer support a family? Or that you can carry $200.00 worth of food out of a grocery store in a single armload?

The standard of living has dropped to a third of what it was 50 years ago (roughly). Only the advent better & cheaper technology has somewhat masked the effect.

Somewhat.

[Thox Spuddy]

Okgranny: I detect a little tongue-in-cheek. Fact is as I know it, the gov took food out of the inflation statistics as it would be injurious to the careers of politicians.

[NWBowhunter]

Daved

I have to wonder what precentage of your shipments roll on corporate trucks vice independent trucking firms. It seems to me that the weekest link is the independent trucking companies being caught in the economic squeeze where they shut down due to the costs of fuel exceeding the ability to break even.

[OKGranny]

Okgranny: I detect a little tongue-in-cheek. Fact is as I know it, the gov took food out of the inflation statistics as it would be injurious to the careers of politicians.

Tongue-in-cheek? Me?  I'm sure they took food out of the inflation statistics, just like they invent new math to keep the unemployment level looking like it's around 10%. Strangely enough as a small business owner if I had gotten that 'creative' with my math when applied to my taxes I'd be in jail. I think I'll just stick with what I paid in previous years as opposed to what I pay now and decide for myself if things are more expensive.

[jasperg357]

Why use corn and soybean for fuel when Kudzu is prolific and you can barely get rid of it when you need to? Kudzu is being used in other countries for biofuel.

If kudzu can be used as biofuel then we are sitting on a fortune here in Georgia.

[jasperg357]

Daved

I have to wonder what precentage of your shipments roll on corporate trucks vice independent trucking firms. It seems to me that the weekest link is the independent trucking companies being caught in the economic squeeze where they shut down due to the costs of fuel exceeding the ability to break even.

I drive a truck for a living, just about all freight is initially handled by independent trucking companies. We will  pick the freight up and take it to a corporate warehouse were it is broken down and placed on there trucks for shipment to there stores. Wal-Mart might be the only exception to this even thou we deliver allot of freight to there warehouses to. During the last rise in fuel prices allot of the smaller trucking companies went out of business plus the larger companies were cutting driver pay and laying of employees. If the price of fuel goes up again and stays there then the only out come I see will be a increase in every thing in the stores. Right now most freight is transported by trucks  and the trucking companies will either have to pass the fuel cost on to there customers are shut there doors, and then the customers will pass it on to the consumer.

[daved]

Daved

I have to wonder what precentage of your shipments roll on corporate trucks vice independent trucking firms. It seems to me that the weekest link is the independent trucking companies being caught in the economic squeeze where they shut down due to the costs of fuel exceeding the ability to break even.

We haven't had our own company trucks for years. Everything comes through independent firms. Actually that isn't entirely true. We do have some box trucks that we use for moving things between some regional warehouses, but the percentage of items that is transported this way is very small. As for the independent companies being the weak link, I agree however there are many options for who moves freight. So if some shut down due to economic troubles, there are plenty more to take their place. If that happens though prices would go up for sure. I can guarantee that if it costs more to get goods to market the food companies aren't just going to absorb that loss. It will most definitely be reflected at the register.

[LdMorgan]

http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial/3791?ppref=CRX175ED1010A

Food price increases at a glance...

[kiteflyer]

 When the USA government officially denies it (inflation) then you can bet it's there! It's all a snow job and the public is aware and fed up with this lying government!

           kiteflyer

http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial/3791?ppref=CRX175ED1010A

Food price increases at a glance...

[NWBowhunter]

Good article on the precarious state of the worlds food supply.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/5-dangers-to-global-crops-that-could-dramatically-reduce-the-world-food-supply

Wheat rust
Mad Soy Disease
Verticillium Wilt
Late Blight

Especially GMO

[NWBowhunter]

Coming sugar shortages http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43cfbb7a-e6b2-11df-99b3-00144feab49a.html

[inthego]

Coming sugar shortages http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43cfbb7a-e6b2-11df-99b3-00144feab49a.html

you got to be a member of that site to see this...

[NWBowhunter]

You can get there from drudgereport.com link is in the right hand column.

The price of sugar has jumped to a 30-year high as the Brazilian harvest has tailed off sharply, hardening expectations of a shortage.

Traders believe that prices could soar over the coming months as the market faces a supply shortfall driven by smaller-than-forecast crops in important growing countries from Brazil to Russia and western Europe.


That has pushed prices up sharply, with raw sugar futures in New York soaring 135 per cent from a low of 13 cents in May.

On Tuesday ICE March sugar rose 4 per cent to a peak of 30.64 cents a pound, surpassing the level reached in February and rising to their highest point since 1980, when prices jumped to nearly 45 cents.

[kiteflyer]

 FYI,
   
    With the dollar going down with the peak oil crisis,climate change and the coming Inflation on all commodities, well prep the best you can now!
          kiteflyer

   Peak Phosphate’ Spells End of Cheap Food 

       http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2010/10/Pages/Peak-Phosphate-Spells-End-of-Cheap-Food.aspx     

[BatonRouge Bill]

Another scary article, wheat rust.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40043530/ns/world_news-americas

I may get a few sacks of winter wheat this week...I guess I'll be getting buckets also!

[CanOpener]

  ".In early 2008, Saudia Arabia announced that, after being self-sufficient in wheat for over 20 years, the non-replenishable aquifer it had been pumping for
irrigation was largely depleted.  In response, officials said they would reduce their wheat harvest by one-eighth each year until production would cease
entirely in 2016.  The Saudis would then import virtually all the grain consumed by their Canada-sized population of nearly 30 million people."
    http://www.earth-policy.org

[endurance]

  ".In early 2008, Saudia Arabia announced that, after being self-sufficient in wheat for over 20 years, the non-replenishable aquifer it had been pumping for
irrigation was largely depleted.  In response, officials said they would reduce their wheat harvest by one-eighth each year until production would cease
entirely in 2016.  The Saudis would then import virtually all the grain consumed by their Canada-sized population of nearly 30 million people."
    http://www.earth-policy.org

China's not far behind in their northwest provinces.  They've been experiencing their own dust bowl for the last several years and it's only going to be getting worse as more aquafers dry up.  ...and that's a few more zeros in their population than Saudi Arabia.

[Morning Sunshine]

 ".In early 2008, Saudia Arabia announced that, after being self-sufficient in wheat for over 20 years, the non-replenishable aquifer it had been pumping for
irrigation was largely depleted.  In response, officials said they would reduce their wheat harvest by one-eighth each year until production would cease
entirely in 2016.  The Saudis would then import virtually all the grain consumed by their Canada-sized population of nearly 30 million people."
    http://www.earth-policy.org

new "oil for food"?   

[Thox Spuddy]

Higher food prices? Can you say 'riot'?

UN calls special meeting to address food shortages amid predictions of riots

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/sep/05/commodities-food-drink-industry


Why do people gather in mobs and riot when food shortages occur and prices go up? Does that somehow appease their hunger? I don't get it. Does the government have some sort of big pantry that people expect to depend upon when times get hard? I just don't get it.

[NWBowhunter]

Food shortage and rioting go hand in hand with the state controlling the means of production and distribution.

[CanOpener]

China's not far behind in their northwest provinces.  They've been experiencing their own dust bowl for the last several years and it's only going to be getting worse as more aquafers dry up.  ...and that's a few more zeros in their population than Saudi Arabia.

    "The heavy losses of territory to advancing deserts in China and Nigeria, the most populous countries in Asia and Africa respectively,
illustrate the trends for scores of other countries.  China is not only losing productive land to deserts, but is doing so at an accelerating
rate.  From 1950 to 1975 China lost an average of 600 square miles of land (1,560 square kilometers) to desert each year.
      By 2000, nearly 1400 square miles were going to desert annually."

"Nigeria is losing 1, 355 square miles of rangeland and cropland to desertification each year"
                                                                                                                                            Nov. 16, 2006
                                                                                                                                            Earth Policy Institute
http://www.earth-policy.org/.

[CanOpener]

Higher food prices? Can you say 'riot'?
UN calls special meeting to address food shortages amid predictions of riots
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/sep/05/commodities-food-drink-industry
 Does the government have some sort of big pantry that people expect to depend upon when times get hard?

    No, the government does not have a big pantry.   Back in the 70's and 80's, the USDA used to have warehouses
                  full of stockpiled, surpluses like butter, powdered milk, etc.  etc.  In the 90's, their major warehouse burned down
               and was never replaced.
Last years checking of their website for stored food surpluses showed zeros in ALL categories.

               

[chrisdfw]

The upside of food shortages relative to other goods is that american purchasing power should actually increase.

We still produce a lot of the food in the world in terms of calories. We are a net importer because we export cheap
wheat and corn, and import expensive items like beef, french wine, caviar, etc etc.

If wheat and grains become relatively more scarce we should be able to sell it for more and bring more money back
to the US. That is of course if we don't give it all away to the starving people. We are an import economy because we
give away so much in foriegn aid and get little in return.

Just my humble opinion. Buy land where you can grow food and you might prosper as food become valuable again. It
has been too abundant for too long for small farmers to make it, but the times might be changing.

[Thox Spuddy]

We've been told by people who volunteer at local food pantries that a good number of the people who come in for food drive away in late model vehicles, are working at good jobs and are taking advantage of the free food.

[chrisdfw]

We've been told by people who volunteer at local food pantries that a good number of the people who come in for food drive away in late model vehicles, are working at good jobs and are taking advantage of the free food.

Don't judge. I went from making 150k plus a year to under 20k. I didn't change cars just because I was broke all of a sudden. (not that I was using food pantries, but
I could have probably used it) Just because of what people drive doesn't mean they haven't fallen on hard times. Its hard to say. Maybe they have good jobs, but do they have huge
debts and their spouse lost their job? 
People are stuck in big houses and expensive cars, sometimes because they owe more than they are worth and they are too proud to default. Afraid for their credit. I've
seen people throw good money after bad on cars that they were upside down on and would not be able to afford long term after their job losses or injuries. They should have
walked away and got a beater, instead they paid their car notes and got food from the food bank. Some people criticize those that walk away from their obligations, others criticize
those that get food from the pantry, they can't win.
You can be making 80,000 to 90,000 a year and have hard times if you were making 200,000 before, because your obligations were taken on at the 200,000 level. I know it, i;ve seen it,
I was not a financial genius, just lucky that I left my job at a time when I didn't have any car notes. Others in my situation had car notes and ended up in much worse condition from having
been upside down on two cars with 1000 a month in payments. On top of students loans and house payments that were 2000-3000 a month.

[Thox Spuddy]

Chris: I was expecting a response like yours from my posting and I think you did an excellent job of eloquently depicting the situation. I have a friend in a similar situation, lots of toys plus house and wheels that were acquired when times were good but now both in the marriage have major job income loss and what they have to sell has no buyers. These are difficult times, and very perverse at that when someone in a late model SUV in a $250,000 home drives up to a food bank in the same peril as a homeless bloke.

[OKGranny]

Exactly, you don't know what anyone's personal circumstance is nor why they are there getting the food to begin with. The problem is that $250,000 house may be worth 1/3 to 1/2 less than that now and they have no way to unload it because the days of lots of people being able to acquire McMansions is pretty well over. I've got a friend that went to her lawyers office a few weeks ago so she put of a pair of nice slacks and a blouse instead of her usualy jeans and t shirt. When she left she went to visit her aunt in a very poor community and the neighbor kids threw dirt and rocks at her and called her a rich *itch.

[kiteflyer]

 Heads up on possible grain shortages coming,you can't eat gold or silver.Mods this was posted here in general news as a warning to all members to gather their preps now.

                 kiteflyer

                 http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8121809

        Abdolreza Abbassian, senior grains economist at the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation in Rome, said the USDA report was "alarming".

[LdMorgan]

I go to a local auction regularly.

They have a guy that comes in every two weeks with a truckload of food. It ranges from mint candies to orange juice, to pasta sauce by the gallon to oatmeal, canned veggies, Slim Jims, whatever.  It's not expired foods or denteds. It's all decent stuff (except the Red Bull and the diet drinks, I mean).

They might pull out four regular cans of corn, and call that unit a "deal". They'd auction it off, and the high bidder got first choice--he could buy as much as he wanted. The kicker was that the food dude would say--"Too much!" and lower the bid price by as much as half. Then the high bidder would say how many "deals" he wanted, get them, and everybody else would follow suit at the same lowered price.

Four cans might bid $1.75, and he'd cut it down to $1.00.

It' a great strategy: he sells everything, every time.

Six months ago, people were buying for the week. If a "deal" was four cans of corn, they'd buy one or two "deals".

Last week he came in, and it was the usual routine--except that almost everything got bought up by individuals in multi-case lots.

One deal was two bottles of OJ. The lady that won the bid bought at the usual knocked-down price--but she took
seven cases--84 "deals".  The backup bidder took four cases. By the time it came around to me, I could only get two cases.

I'd wanted four, and I thought I was buying big-time for stocking up!

It was a sea-change in the food-auction routine. A LOT of people had suddenly started buying in large volume.

People are aware food prices are rising. They are also aware the dollar is circling around in the toilet bowl.

Next time I'll go back with more money, and be the high bidder. That way I can buy at the same knocked-down price as everyone else, but I'll get the quantity I want.

(Now--where did I put those stacks of hundreds?....)