Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)

[swanson]

Warning of food price hike crisis

A crisis is unfolding in the UK as people in poverty struggle with rising food prices and the recession, the Save the Children charity has warned.

Warning of food price hike crisis

It comes as new figures from The Grocer magazine show food prices rose by more than 18% over the last year.

Edited due to copyright issues -- please see here for Fair Use info.

[ColdHaven]

How much longer until that happens here? Thoughts about this happening in countries like England, France, and other big countries makes me fearful about what might happen here. It also helps me keep concentrated on prepping food.

[chris]

Breed Less, Spend Less, Save more.

[“Mark”]

Food prices went up a little, but a good chunk of it is inflation.


In my trip last weekend down into the States, I noticed something interesting: the food was more expensive than in Canada. Some things like bananas and corn were cheaper, but others, especially prepackaged foods, were more expensive once you factored in the dollar exchange.

[Patriot:Ex Machina]

POSTED FOR FAIR USE:

http://www.thetreeofliberty.com/vb/showthread.php?t=74867
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/26/business/economy/26food.html?_r=2&ref=business

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Food Prices Likely to Start Ticking Up

By WILLIAM NEUMAN
Published: August 25, 2009

Prices for beef, milk, eggs and some other grocery items have been dropping for several months, providing relief for consumers who suffered through the steep increases of a year ago. But prices are likely to start edging upward again as the economy recovers, according to a new federal report and economic analysts.


Edited due to copyright issues -- please see here for Fair Use info.

[swanson]

Sticker shock at the supermarket: Food prices poised to rise

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/why-do-you-pay-so-much-for-these-foods/19190587/

Dan Burrows
Oct 15th 2009 at 6:00AM

If there's any silver lining to a recession -- albeit a thin one -- it's that consumer prices typically go down. Make no mistake, deflation is a sign of a sick economy, but at least the net effect of cheaper prices for the basic necessities -- food, clothing and shelter -- helps folks get by when they are struggling to make ends meet.

But consumers should brace themselves for things to change, especially at the supermarket. As the global and U.S. economies emerge from the downturn, economists predict that there is going to be some sticker shock at the checkout line. ...

Edited due to copyright issues -- please see here for Fair Use info.

The end result? Consumers should keep an eye on oil prices, which not only impact what they pay at the pump but also what they pay at the checkout counter.

[Steve W]

Also in today's news:

Value of UK farmland could double in five years
The value of farmland in the UK could double in the next five years, new research claims.

The surge in pricing is set to be driven by a shortage of quality farmland as the global population expands and demand for food increases.
.....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/6308822/Value-of-UK-farmland-could-double-in-five-years.html

[Herbalpagan]

I only go out and do a real grocery buy about once a month. I'm able to see real well that things are already changing. At one point this summer, between price increases and less in the package type of thing, I have seen prices on many items go up 20% !  Everyone needs to be aware that tangible items like food are one of our best "insurance" buys and should be gotten in bulk if you can NOW.  Cyclical weather, disease and so on have a huge affect on food prices, and there are some big ones that happened this year, but we will also be contending with rising fuel prices being tacked on to each item.

[chris]

Make no mistake, deflation is a sign of a sick economy, but at least the net effect of cheaper prices for the basic necessities -- food, clothing and shelter -- helps folks get by when they are struggling to make ends meet.

Sure sign that someone has been brainwashed by socialist economics. Deflation is a sign of a healing economy.

[Kayzonara]

I went to store a new tube of toothpaste and discovered it was smaller than a tube of the same brand bought a few months back. 

[ColdHaven]

Why use corn and soybean for fuel when Kudzu is prolific and you can barely get rid of it when you need to? Kudzu is being used in other countries for biofuel.

[Thox Spuddy]

POPULATION:  Global Food Supply Near the Breaking Point
By Stephen Leahy

BROOKLIN, Canada, May 17 (IPS) - The world is now eating more food than farmers grow, pushing global grain stocks to their lowest level in 30 years.

Rising population, water shortages, climate change, and the growing costs of fossil fuel-based fertilisers point to a calamitous shortfall in the world's grain supplies in the near future, according to Canada's National Farmers Union (NFU).

Edited due to copyright issues -- please see here for Fair Use info.

http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=33268

[Thox Spuddy]

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5AC3BS20091113

[Thox Spuddy]

 
GM seeds threaten food supply, claim researchers
By Caroline Scott-Thomas, 11-Sep-2009

Modern seed companies are reducing crop diversity – and this could have serious consequences for food supply as the climate heats up, researchers claimed at the World Seed Conference in Rome this week.

Edited due to copyright issues -- please see here for Fair Use info.


http://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Financial-Industry/GM-seeds-threaten-food-supply-claim-researchers

world food supply threatened by genetically modified seeds. we need to support non-gm seeds by buying from places like seedsaver.org






fixed your link for you

[Dave]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aBYSp0.XfXZs&pos=14

Excerpts:

“The prospect of a further bout of food-price inflation in 2010 cannot be ruled out since many of the factors that contributed to higher prices in 2007 and 2008 are still a feature.”

“The tendency for food prices is up, it’s not down,” Unilever Chief Executive Officer Paul Polman said

"Rice may surge 63 percent.."

“increasing pressure on food prices to rise,” Nomura International Plc said

"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Dec. 3 that corn and soybeans will rally through 2011. Corn will reach $4.75 a bushel next year and $5 in 2011 on higher demand for fuels made from the grain, the bank said. Soybeans may reach $11 a bushel in the next 12 months and average $12 a bushel in 2011, Goldman said. "

"Food output will need to rise 70 percent in the next four decades as the global population expands to 9.1 billion in 2050 from 6.8 billion, the FAO estimates. "

[kiteflyer]

   This looks ominous! With Fuel and Food which translate to Fasting! The Three F's are coming!

                    kiteflyer

 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aBYSp0.XfXZs&pos=14

[liftsboxes]

Food Fuel and Fun, right?

[Herbalpagan]

not going to be a hardship for people who are prepared! now's the time to add more to all of your preps while you can afford to.

[Herbalpagan]

People who aren't building a good stock of food and supplies are going to be in real trouble. Everyone should be trying to find a garden spot, working the soil and planning next years garden right now!
We're planning to double our production in all areas of the garden. After listening to one of Jacks podcasts, we've also decided to naturalize some of our herbs as well.

[homeshow]

as herbalp said production is the key.  grow/produce more than enough for your family.  then you will have some to sell/barter/trade.  remember as we are now a net food importer.  now the price of foods will rise when the dollar falls.  plus all those other issues like famine and global production shortages.

[sclindah]

I agree. We doubled our raised beds/garden last year and are working to double it again this spring along with building a greenhouse and planting more fruit trees and berries. We figure we have to prepare to grow, produce and can most of our food right here for the future and share what we can't can with family.  Having good soil takes time to prepare and learning how to grow things in your area of the country also takes time to learn!  It's a good investment, better than a lot out there.

[Sid]

Here is a frightening article about supply in the 2009-2010 food production cycle.

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2010-food-crisis-for-dummies.html

The article is lengthy and frightening.

One thing leads to another.  The author thinks that resulting rising food costs in foreign countries will cause foreign central banks to dump US Treasury debt instruments and US dollars in an attempt to drive up the purchasing power of their own currencies so as to drive down their own cost of importing food.

He also points out that many desperate financial institutions like AIG have taken positions in risky over the counter agricultural derivatives in order to raise cash now, and that as panic hits the agricultural markets that these positions will set off a new wave of financial and bank failures.   

[LdMorgan]

+1 for Sid---this is one of the most important posts on TSP.

The situation is simply this: the US government has been lying about domestic food production as blatantly as the Communists ever did in the 1950's.

If you remember when, all production was always at record levels even in the midst of their pandemic famines. Millions died while the government lied.

Now OUR government is doing exactly the same thing, and in so doing is setting US up to be the victims of the next major American famine.

There have been others--see http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/105255-0/

But this one will not be as temporary as before. Food production is failing world-wide because the essential food production mechanism is broken. The culprit, as I see it, is Climate Change.

Not "Global Warming"--which is a fraud, but Global Cooling, which is a fact.

It is changing rainfall patterns and bringing unseasonal cold in areas where basic food crops are grown and these changes are so extreme that many of the food crops we depend on can no longer survive.

It will get worse long before it gets better.

I had personally not expected domestic famines until at least 2012. So I thought there was "still time".

Heads up, folks. There is NO time left! Put in your gardens, put up your stocks. Buy while you still can.

It's not just that prices are going to go up. There will soon be bare shelves and empty bellies in what was formerly the Land of Plenty.

The Third Horseman is but a hoof-beat away.

[USAFRaven]

Found this tonight while watching the News...way to start a panic,  Gotta love the news,  I blame Global warming.


http://wcbstv.com/national/food.prices.arctic.2.1411809.html

2010 8:14 pm US/Eastern
Arctic Blast Likely To Increase Food Prices
Wheat Production In Midwest, Fruit Harvesting In Florida In Jeopardy Of Being Impacted By Frigid Temperatures

NEW YORK (CBS)
 Fruit like Valencia oranges, seen here in Arcadia, Fla., may be damaged by the Arctic blast currently enveloping the nation.
AP

 * Florida Stunned By Perilous, Frigid Weather
      (1/7/2010)

The widespread Arctic freeze will have an impact on more than just your heating bill. Prepare for sticker shock at the grocery store.
From produce to meat, juice to bread, the sharp drop in temperatures blanketing most of the U.S. could add up to a spike in prices at the grocery store.

"This will be painful and it will take a while to recover from," Aaron Elstein said.

Edited due to copyright issues -- please see here for Fair Use info.

[inthego]

Have Rush Limbaugh hock orange juice again!  lol

The commodity markets always eat this stuff up even if no one cares.  (Pun intended) 

[ebonearth]

Funny someone in my cloud just Tweeted about this NOW. Man I just love how our fellow TSPers are on the pulse!

[gigaJack]

My company is an agriculture commodity trading company that also gives paid advise. I asked one of our analysts if he thought the soybean market was going to be short this year. He said yes and our company is betting on it.

I asked him what he thought about the comments the Ag department was saying about it being a record crop year. He said it was not what he was hearing from the farmers.

gigaJack

[gromit]

I stopped off at the grocery store last night to pick up an item (cheddar cheese) for a dish my wife was making.  As I usually do, I went up and down the isles looking for deals so I could stock up on any items for our food preps.  It seemed to me that the prices on everything have risen substantially over the past couple of months.

I think there are three reasons for this:

1)  The topic of this thread.  Food shortages.
2)  Fuel costs are beginning to rise again.
3)  Inflation is finally starting.

Let me briefly comment on the third item.  As has been documented in many places and mentioned by Jack on the podcast many times, the U.S. Federal Reserve has been creating money out of thin air like never before since late 2008 (well, actually they created a bunch at the end of 2008 and have returned to more normal activity but you get my point). 

When this started, many economists in the Austrian School (see www.Mises.org for example) have been very concerned about eventual inflationary effects.  So far, the inflation, as measured by the government has been mild and masked by the price decreases that happened when companies were liquidating excess inventories during the beginning of the bust late last year.  Part of the reason was that the new money was being held by the banks in the form of excess reserves.

I am wondering if with some banks beginning to return to closer to usual lending practices due to an apparent economic recovery some of the new money is finally hitting the economy resulting in inflation.  It will be interesting to see what the official inflation numbers for 2009 say.  Not that I really trust them.

[kiteflyer]

 It will all start from Grains and Oils and the lack of them! Be prepared!

        kiteflyer

 http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/

[Pathfinder]

Locally in ND, the wheat crop is up in volume, but the protein levels in the wheat are way down. IIRC (hey, I'm a rancher, not a farmer!) 13-14% is good, average protein at one commercial silo (400k bushels per trainload) so far (as of November) was running about 10%.

The local grocery store sale fliers are thin, huge print and pictures (fewer items per page). Wally World has had empty shelves sporadically in various products. And prices are way up - milk over $3 a gallon. Bulk at Sam's is still good, though, flour less than $7/25# and rice is pretty good too. Sugar at $11 for 25#. No dried beans to speak of though.

Yeah, I thought we had a little more time too.