Really good analysis. I normally hear the opposite opinion and don't think I've ever heard it presented this way. You said you've carried for 25 years, have you ever had to use it, either in a case similar to this or beyond?
Several times, but as an armed citizen, I've never had to shoot anyone (I was an LEO and in the military, as well).
Each time, luckily, either sweeping back to grip the pistol or drawing it kept it from escalating.
One time, I even stopped what appeared to be an ATM jacking. I went to a drive-thru ATM about 11 p.m. and when I rolled down the window, a car pulled in behind me and another pulled in, facing me, in front of me. I pulled my pistol, visibly (re)charged it, and the front car backed up and peeled away. I hadn't even put in my card, yet, so I just peeled out as if I were following him. The second car just stayed where it was. I called police, but the cars both got away. Three guys were arrested about a week later pulling the same stunt at a different bank. The outside video from the first bank tied them into both attempts.
I've had about half a dozen almost-presentations.
The worst, and most embarassing, involved a restroom at a mall (and I've never told this to anyone, before). I stopped to do my business, which required the dropping of trousers. Since I carried my pistol on my belt, I drew my pistol and set it in the "sling" created by my underwear stretched between my knees. If I hadn't, anyone in the next stall could have looked down and seen a pistol basically lying on the floor, possibly within reach.
While I was otherwise occupied, someone else entered the restroom and eventually went into the stall next to me.
Turns out it was two people. One entered the stall and his feet disappeared (he stepped up on the toilet). It took me a second to make sense of this and as I realized what he was doing, I started to look up. I didn't have a chance to my head tilted all the way up because just then someone stepped in front of my stall door and kicked it in, screaming "GIMME YOUR WALLET MOTHER F***ER!"
Honestly, I didn't know whether to sh** or go blind, I was totally caught off guard. I was totally stuck in the first "O" of OODA.
The gods that love comedy must've have been having a giggle that day because the door-kicker's eyes totally bugged out as he tried to back-peddle away. While I'd like to convince myself it was for another reason, he had obviously just seen my pistol (my S&W 4506, not my. . .er. . . well, you get the idea) and changed his mind about the whole idea.
In the mean time, the guy over me had an honest-to-God leather sap that he tried to bean me with but he missed and hit the top of the other stall wall.
Door Kicker screamed "SH**! COP! RUN!" and tried to effect his escape. Stool Stander tried to exit his stall but couldn't get the door open (they opened inward, and in his panic he couldn't figure that out). Door Kicker tried to help who we found out later was his younger brother, by trying to push the stall door open. Stool Stander thought that *I* was on the other side, trying to get in (I didn't say they were smart, this is what was found out after they were arrested) and was doing everything to keep the door closed, resulting in a very loud, repeated BANGING sound as both, in their panic tried to do what they wanted to the door. After the first "BANG," Stool Stander started screaming in a voice that sounded disturbingly like a little girl who just found out that the Boogey Man was real and was, in fact, now residing under her bed.
I, on the other hand, was still stuck in the first "O" of OODA while this was going on.
Finally, Door Kicker gave up and decided to make a break for it. He turned and tried to sprint past the stalls and toward the door. Unfortunately, he fell victim to Fashion as his foot slipped out of one of his high-tops (which were untied, as was the style at the time) and he proceeded to take a step in his sock-clad foot, slip on the tile floor and fall headfirst onto the corner of one of the sinks, splitting open his forehead and knocking him silly, but not unconscious.
Stool Stander finally got the door open and made his break for it but upon seeing his big brother bleeding profusely from a gash in his forehead, started screaming his brother's name as he tried to drag him out of the restroom.
I was now entering the second "O" of OODA. Finally.
Both kids got out of the bathroom, Stool Stander dragging Door Kicker by the scruff of his denim jacket. Outside the restroom was a long hallway that just happened to lead one way to Mall Administration and the other to the mall itself.
Stool Stander continued to scream "GET UP GET UP GET UP OMYGOD MY BROTHER'S BEEN SHOT" along with his brother's name while leaving a rather garish trail of blood down the hallway.
Meanwhile, I toyed with the idea of entering the "D" phase of OODA.
A couple of Mall Security guards almost literally ran into the two kids (they decided to go the WRONG way down the hallway) and took them into custody, calling for the on-duty officer assigned to the mall for assistance.
I, on the other hand, had firmly made my D(ecision) and entered the "A" phase of OODA.
I stood up, looked out the open stall door, saw that there was a broken sink and a LOT of blood in the other section of the restroom and uttered the words "What the F*** just happened?"
The two kids, despite their size, were under 18 and had thought this idea up after deciding to promote themselves from general shoplifting, purse snatching and pickpocketing. Door Kicker had ultimately cut a 2" gash on his forehead and earned himself a nice, shiny concussion.
After interviewing the two kids, it was found out that Stool Stander had thought the banging of the door when he and his brother were wrestling over it were gunshots and when he finally got out of the stall, he saw his brother bleeding and thought that a cop had shot him.
Luckily, I was an LEO at the time but from a town about 70 miles away, so when I finally worked my way out of the stall and contacted security, we were able to work the details out.
I made two decisions that day. The first was to start carrying in a shoulder-holster off-duty. The second was to not use a public restroom that was not easily securable.
Technically, I guess this was another case of a Bad Guy seeing a gun and it's mere presence halting what would otherwise have been a crime.
Downside to this is, just like a cop, you start thinking that either the hand on the gun or the presentation is all it takes to stop the situation. IMNSHO, the reason most cops get shot is they believe that the uniform and the gun are fightstoppers just by being present. Most cops can't shoot worth sh**, regardless of what the qualification systems want you to believe and many get caught up in the mindset that their mere uniformed presence de-escalates a situation. For the most part, this is true. What happens, then, is they learn by experience that 99 times out of 100 (or more honestly, 999,999 times out of a million) that they don't have to shoot. So, that millionth time results in an abberation to their experience, a total divergence from everything their experience has taught them and they get caught behind the loop.
Technically, each and every one of the times I've had to utilize a firearm (from sweeping back my covering garment only to actually drawing on someone) is a violation of what I tell people. In about half the cases, I wasn't in danger of IMMEDIATE death or grievous bodily harm, I just
suspected that the situation would escalate. In the other half, the presence of the firearm and my apparent willingness to use it prevented it from going farther.
It's like the old lawyer argument that if you shot an aggressor in the leg and he stopped aggressing you. . .YOU were at fault because it didn't take deadly force to stop him, yet you flagrantly wielded it and used it to injure your aggressor (now referred to as "your victim"). Sounds silly, but that's life. We, as carriers of concealed weapons have taken responsibility for our own lifes. We also have to accept the negativity that may arise from our choices.
Back to the Original Post's situation. The less you have to think about, the easier it is to make a decision.
OC, CS/CN, expandable batons, tasers, and any other form of "less-lethal" devices should be kept for those times when you are otherwise unable to carry a firearm, not as an additional level of force to it. Cops are different, but mainly because of their enhanced training and the expectation that comes with it to de-escalate situations and because they often enter INTO the situation when an armed citizen should leave.
Again, just my nickel's worth.
The Professor
(Edited for grammatical error.)