Author Topic: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)  (Read 382247 times)

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #510 on: September 05, 2012, 03:00:50 PM »
How many pounds to the acre this year VS other good years?

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Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #511 on: September 05, 2012, 03:17:29 PM »
I am sure glad to have Cheryl and her immediacy to the farm to give her insight.  It is a nice counterpoint to the dry facts and figures that Cedar provides.  I am very grateful for everyone on this forum.  you are all so great and add various insights.

at TEOTWAWKI, I am going to use my magic to gather the members of this forum into a bubble and protect us and we can use our skills to start the world over ;)

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #512 on: September 05, 2012, 03:58:56 PM »
... I'm believing Americans for the most part as believing all this talk about droughts and such is just saying that prices will be going up more for food.  Sure, that is true in a sense, as Americans change from spending 10% of income on food to 12% or even 20%, we will be taking more of the food that was destined for elsewhere in the world.  As one article states, many populations have no extra discretionary income to spend on food commodities, vast shortages and unrest will result.  Somewhere. ...
There's a lot of experts who say that the rise in food prices between 2008-2011 led to the Arab Spring uprisings.  So what happens when prices increase by another 20-50%?  The control of Rome was highly dependent on the ability to control the grain coming out of Egypt during the Roman era.  We're in a far more complex environment now than they were, producing a surplus of grain, but dependent on imported cheap oil to make it affordable to the masses.  How long can the Saudi, Iranian, and Kuwaiti governments hold onto power in the face of these pressures?  If they crack, how will that impact their oil exports.  What if Saudi imports dropped proportionate to Libyan exports during their period of unrest?



But instead of taking about 1.7 mbpd coming off the market, it would be 9.8-10 mbpd or roughly one in 8.5 barrels a day disappearing for several months. 

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #513 on: September 05, 2012, 04:00:34 PM »
There's a lot of experts who say that the rise in food prices between 2008-2011 led to the Arab Spring uprisings.  So what happens when prices increase by another 20-50%?  The control of Rome was highly dependent on the ability to control the grain coming out of Egypt during the Roman era.  We're in a far more complex environment now than they were, producing a surplus of grain, but dependent on imported cheap oil to make it affordable to the masses. 

Yep.

Cedar

Offline cheryl1

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #514 on: September 05, 2012, 04:52:18 PM »
Quote from: Morning Sunshine link=topic=4771.msg420603#msg420603 date=

at TEOTWAWKI, I am going to use my magic to gather the members of this forum into a bubble and protect us and we can use our skills to start the world over ;)
I'll bring my angel farting unicorn :)
« Last Edit: September 05, 2012, 05:24:14 PM by Archer »

Offline TexasGirl

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #515 on: September 05, 2012, 05:10:02 PM »
Buy popcorn.. if I remember right the average family of 4 goes through 12 pounds a year.

http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/2012/09/04/bad-news-for-movie-fans-us-drought-hits-popcorn-crop

It's funny that you should mention popcorn.  I just received 64 lbs of it for LTS, something I wouldn't normally buy much of, but I can always use it for things other than popping.  I'm supposed to get some dent from a friend (helped him pick it) but I'm unsure how much.  He will have a good bit ground into meal, that may be the hold up. 

~TG

Offline rikkrack

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #516 on: September 13, 2012, 09:47:02 AM »
Last year at this time regular eggs, not free range, not organic, regular whit grade A large eggs were $0.89/dozen. I only notice because people were saying my $2.50 organic free range eggs were way high and if they could get them so cheap why pay more. Said you will never sell them at that rate.

Last night I saw the same type of eggs on SALE for $2.89/dozen. Same person asked if I was still charging $2.50 for eggs, and now saw value. Unfortunately for them, no longer selling as we are dehydrating eggs, and making more pasta for long term storage. That and any feed we do get went up $3/50 lb sack in 2 months.

Family member went on a trip and freaked that milk was over $5.00 a gallon in that area. That was their spark. Asked if they could come over and learn what we are doing for preps. Another grasshopper converted. Hopefully not too late. They thought we were crazy a year ago for prepping.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #517 on: September 13, 2012, 10:16:16 AM »
More Expensive Gas Pushes Up US Wholesale Prices
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=161058139
Food prices are likely to rise further in the coming months as the Midwest drought has made corn, soybeans and other grains much more expensive. Sweet corn prices jumped 44 percent last month, the most in a year and a half.

Higher corn prices raise costs for many different foods on grocery store shelves. Corn is used to make everything from cosmetics to cereal, soda, cake mixes and candy bars. It is also used as a feed for cattle and hogs. That means more expensive corn can also push up beef and pork prices.

A measure of food prices in earlier stages of processing rose 2.4 percent last month, the biggest gain in about 18 months. The increase was mostly because the cost of animal feed rose.



Offline cheryl1

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #518 on: September 13, 2012, 12:06:02 PM »
Harvest has started. 3 days in the preliminary numbers for corn are about 120 bushels an acre. Instead of 200 like in better years. We are harvesting the river bottoms first, and there was no hail or other damage there. I expect the average to drop further once we get into our other fields.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #519 on: September 13, 2012, 12:42:28 PM »
Harvest has started. 3 days in the preliminary numbers for corn are about 120 bushels an acre. Instead of 200 like in better years. We are harvesting the river bottoms first, and there was no hail or other damage there. I expect the average to drop further once we get into our other fields.

Crummy Cheryl... :(

Cedar

Offline Frugal Upstate

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #520 on: September 13, 2012, 06:25:40 PM »
Harvest has started. 3 days in the preliminary numbers for corn are about 120 bushels an acre. Instead of 200 like in better years. We are harvesting the river bottoms first, and there was no hail or other damage there. I expect the average to drop further once we get into our other fields.

That's terrible.

Offline cheryl1

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #521 on: September 13, 2012, 07:19:19 PM »
We're pretty lucky to get what we're getting. In the counties just south of us the farmers were averaging 16 bushels. They have given  up and are chopping it as silage and selling it for $35 a ton. (according to our local news station)

Offline whatmecrazy

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #522 on: September 13, 2012, 08:54:42 PM »
All of my farmer friends in Northern Colorado are hurting this year.  So far as to say they only have 50% or less of normal production as far as bushels per acre.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #523 on: September 27, 2012, 09:18:45 AM »
Corn supplies in the U.S., the world’s biggest grower and exporter, are dropping below last year’s domestic usage for just the third time in half a century http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-27/shrinking-u-s-corn-supply-trails-use-for-first-time-in-16-years.html

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Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #524 on: September 27, 2012, 09:48:47 AM »
Various things I noted this morning:

October live cattle fell 0.48 cent to $1.2222 a pound; October feeder cattle rose 0.93 cent to $1.4610 a pound; while October lean hogs rose 0.60 cent to 76.87 cents a pound.

As Congress navigates its way through the 2012 Farm Bill process, Food & Water Watch today released a report that delineates the special interest lobbying efforts that shaped the 2008 Farm Bill. Food & Water Watch estimates that $173.5 million was spent by agribusinesses, commodity groups, food manufacturers and others to perpetuate policies that favor the largest food and agriculture industries. You can read it here http://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/tools-and-resources/cultivating-influence/ Look at page 10 Table 5 and I thought it was interesting that 8 of the top 15 companies who lobbied were the beer and soda companies. And page 9, Table 6 of all the seed, fertilizer and biotech companies. I was not surprised to see who was #1.

Cedar

Offline cheryl1

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #525 on: September 27, 2012, 03:28:12 PM »
My bean field looks so pretty in the morning sun. All those little white flowers everywhere, reflecting the light. Oh wait, those white things are the insides of my bean pods. All my beans are on the ground. Thanks a lot hail.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #526 on: September 27, 2012, 03:30:54 PM »
OH NO CHERYL!! How many acres? What did the corn end up at?

Cedar

Offline cheryl1

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #527 on: September 27, 2012, 03:34:16 PM »
Our personal 44 at least. Don't think all the businesses damage totals are in yet. We're about 30% done harvesting corn, and looks like the average is around half of normal. Beans are worse than that.

Offline Oil Lady

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #528 on: September 28, 2012, 06:50:19 PM »
Various things I noted this morning:

October live cattle fell 0.48 cent to $1.2222 a pound; October feeder cattle rose 0.93 cent to $1.4610 a pound; while October lean hogs rose 0.60 cent to 76.87 cents a pound.

 



The UK has raised an alarm for a "global pork shortage" unfolding as we speak. Bacon could be selling here in the States for $9 a pound before May. And an Easter ham could cost $100.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/24/bacon-sausage-shortage_n_1909609.html?utm_hp_ref=food

Quote
Global Bacon Shortage 'Unavoidable' Next Year, Says U.K.'s National Pig Association

The Huffington Post  |  By Rachel Tepper Posted: 09/24/2012
 
With pork costs rising, Great Britain is facing a bacon and sausage shortage as pig farmers cut back on herd size. But the problem may soon become global.

In a recent press release, the U.K.'s National Pig Association is warning that a "world shortage of pork and bacon next year is now unavoidable":


Quote
New data shows the European Union pig herd is declining at a significant rate, and this is a trend that is being mirrored around the world. Pig farmers have been plunged into loss by high pig-feed costs, caused by the global failure of maize and soya harvests. All main European pig-producing countries report shrinking sow herds.

...



It seems that the price of feed for pigs has gone up so much due to the global drought that an unusually high number of hog farmers around the world have slaughtered most or all of their herds.   



From the Chicago Tribune:

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-09-27/news/sns-rt-us-usa-drought-pork-producersbre88q1h2-20120927_1_hog-producers-prestage-farms-corn-futures

Quote

Drought-hit hog producers face tough choice: struggle or fold

September 27, 2012|P.J. Huffstutter and Theopolis Waters | Reuters

CHICAGO (Reuters) - With the worst drought in half a century driving feed prices sky high, pork producers are facing an untenable choice: drain their savings and gamble on a better future, or sell off their herd and get out of the business altogether.

A disappointing corn harvest has forced the slaughter of sows - adult female hogs that are the building blocks of a herd - at record rates, swelling pork supplies and sending prices plunging.

As a result, consumers could be treated to cheap pork this fall but would have to dig deeper into their wallets next year as prices rise for products from bacon to pork chops to hams....

... So far, the signs are grim. A whopping 9.9 million head of hogs were rushed to market in August, the most ever for that month, according to data analyzed by Reuters....







And China's millions upon millions of pigs are in need of as much corn feed as possible.

http://nationalhogfarmer.com/business/china-s-growing-pork-sector-could-strain-global-corn-supplies

Quote
China’s Growing Pork Sector Could Strain Global Corn Supplies

Sep. 28, 2012  

If China’s pork sector continues to grow at the pace it is today, the industry’s demand for corn within the next five years could have a significant impact on the world’s supply. According to a new report, “The Industrialization of China’s Pork Supply Chain,” issued by Rabobank’s Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory Group, China’s corn imports could approach 22 million tons, annually....

« Last Edit: September 28, 2012, 07:14:10 PM by Oil Lady »

Offline Oil Lady

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #529 on: September 28, 2012, 06:52:04 PM »
Sorry, Cheryl. :(

Offline Frugal Upstate

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #530 on: September 28, 2012, 07:44:41 PM »
Oh no Cheryl!  I'm so sorry.

Offline Sweethearts Mom

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #531 on: October 07, 2012, 07:21:32 PM »
Ok I went to Sams and Costco....maybe I am out of the loop but they both carry only pinto beans in bulk? Also got on the Dallas LDS cannery...them too. Pinto only.

Is this what you are finding? Where do you buy other beans in bulk?

Offline Louisiana Suvivor

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #532 on: October 07, 2012, 07:55:37 PM »
wait you don't like red beans and rice?!?!?!

Offline Sweethearts Mom

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #533 on: October 08, 2012, 08:19:15 PM »
If you are responding to me I would like to store all kinds of beans. I can only find pinto in bulk

Offline Cedar

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Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #535 on: October 16, 2012, 03:36:36 PM »
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/commodities/global-commodity-prices-jump-10july-sept-qtr-imf_768796.html

Global commodity prices surged as much as 10 per cent in the three months ended September 2012, as food and energy costs went up amid widespread supply constraints, according to the IMF.

Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #536 on: October 16, 2012, 04:24:43 PM »
And so the social security COLA increase was 1.7 percent for 2013. The COLA is based on inflation which the govt pegged at 2%. This is why food, fuel, and housing are not included in the inflation number, the govt couldn't afford the COLA increase.
We all know real inflation is near 10% and I wonder how seniors are going to afford that.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #537 on: October 16, 2012, 04:29:30 PM »


They don't talk about it much as most of the crops are in or dead, but it is not over. U.S. areas covered by various drought levels increased by about 1 percent since last week. D0 to D4 drought levels now cover 76.72 percent of Contiguous United States.

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #538 on: October 16, 2012, 04:37:56 PM »


USDA has declared 2,423 counties across the country as [primary and contiguous] agricultural disaster areas so far this year.

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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