Author Topic: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)  (Read 382207 times)

Offline Mister Dark

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #480 on: August 23, 2012, 07:09:41 PM »
Cedar, great job finding this data.  It has been a real eye-opener (combined with my experience driving through the midwest this past june and july, it has been plain ol SCARY!)

And to follow up on the whole trend, beef prices at the store have started to fall. Just got Angus ribeye for under $10 a pound at the local big box grocer. First time it has been that cheap in a long time.   I need to learn how to can cow. 

It makes me wonder what else I should be putting back. 

Keep up the good work!

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #481 on: August 23, 2012, 07:23:58 PM »
And to follow up on the whole trend, beef prices at the store have started to fall. Just got Angus ribeye for under $10 a pound at the local big box grocer. First time it has been that cheap in a long time.   I need to learn how to can cow. 

Ask and you shall receive? http://extension.usu.edu/utah/files/uploads/Canning/Guide%205%20-%20Canning%20Meats.pdf get a pressure canner.

It makes me wonder what else I should be putting back. 

Anything/everything you come across on a good price you think you need and might go up and you have the funds for?


Keep up the good work!

Thanks. I will try.

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #482 on: August 23, 2012, 08:34:31 PM »
Interesting read from the FEDS.. specifically the F e d e r a l  R e s e r v e  B a n k  o f  K a n s a s  C i t y. Did you know that the Fed is meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming next week? Apparently they do this once a year. In the link below they talk about the Ag outlook.

http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/mse/MSE_0312.pdf

The minutes showed the central bank is considering two key measures to boost the U.S. economy. Investors are likely to stay focused on the Fed, with attention on the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. next week. Detrick said "All in all, we're just biding our time and waiting for Jackson Hole
."

All the links for the minutes of July's Fed meeting are offline however.

Cedar

Offline archer

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #483 on: August 23, 2012, 09:44:46 PM »
thanks for your work Cedar.

Offline Sonny

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #484 on: August 23, 2012, 09:50:05 PM »
My Buddy has a ranch up in Nebraska.  He paid $80 per ton for hay last year, now due to the drought, is is $220 per ton because he has to have it shipped from so far away, also the supply and demand curve.  He is hoping to weather his herd of cows through the winter.  Many others are just selling their cows for beef now.  I suspect the price will go down then skyrocket because the market is flooded with cows that the ranchers can't afford to feed through the winter.  Then next year there won't be any new cows to fill the void.  I told him he was like Forrest Gump and the shrimp boat.  He might be one of the last ones with cows next year.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #485 on: August 24, 2012, 09:27:44 AM »
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/25/business/no-relief-in-forecast-for-rise-in-food-prices.html

 The Agriculture Department said this week that 85 percent of this year’s corn crop was in drought-impacted areas, and 83 percent of the soybean crop was threatened. As of Monday, just 23 percent of the corn crop was rated in good or excellent condition, while  31 percent of soybeans were rated good or excellent.

Cheese and milk products are expected to increase 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent next year, unchanged from last month’s forecast. Egg prices will also be affected, with prices forecast to rise 3 percent to 4 percent next year.


Cedar

Offline TexasGirl

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #486 on: August 24, 2012, 10:52:01 AM »
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/25/business/no-relief-in-forecast-for-rise-in-food-prices.html

 The Agriculture Department said this week that 85 percent of this year’s corn crop was in drought-impacted areas, and 83 percent of the soybean crop was threatened. As of Monday, just 23 percent of the corn crop was rated in good or excellent condition, while  31 percent of soybeans were rated good or excellent.

Cheese and milk products are expected to increase 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent next year, unchanged from last month’s forecast. Egg prices will also be affected, with prices forecast to rise 3 percent to 4 percent next year.


Cedar

A friend called me from Sam's Club last week saying that a case of eggs went up 50% in price over 2 weeks.  Don't know if that was localized or across the board, egg supply (even in the mega stores) tends to be regional.

~TG

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #487 on: August 24, 2012, 03:36:32 PM »
Today's world grain news.

EU wheat futures flat, await sparkle for new rise
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/24/markets-grains-europe-idUSL6E8JO75W20120824
"I think we have not seen the highs, especially if the Southern hemisphere does not come to take the relay," said a trader who remained bullish on prices.

News about the Russian crop was also cause for concern. The International Grains Council on Thursday slashed its forecast for the country's wheat crop by 4 million tonnes to 41 million, now below the amount produced during the last drought in 2010, which led Russia to ban exports.


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Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #488 on: August 24, 2012, 04:51:03 PM »
News of today:

Russia May Run Out of Exportable Grain Surplus in November
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-23/russia-may-run-out-of-exportable-grain-surplus-in-november-1-.html

Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #489 on: August 27, 2012, 02:11:14 AM »
Disruption to the livestock market. Corn, soybeans and alfalfa prices have risen so much, it's affecting meat producers, who use those commodities as raw materials to feed their herds, Georgy says. Meat producers are losing roughly $200 a head on cattle and $50 a hog, as it costs more to feed the animals than their meat can be sold for, he says. Big meat producers such as Tyson and Smithfield are suffering; their stocks have fallen 27% and 21%, respectively, this year, a period in which the Standard & Poor's 500 is up 12.2%.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/story/2012-08-26/drought-food-prices-investing/57334442/1

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Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #490 on: August 27, 2012, 02:39:47 AM »
Since Issac is following Katrina's path even to the day, I decided to see what damage Katrina caused agriculturally speaking and what havoc Issac might do if it indeed takes the same path.

  • http://deltafarmpress.com/usda-katrina-crop-damage-900-million
  • http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/crs/rl33075.pdf
  • the greatest farm production losses caused by Hurricane Katrina are likely to be to the crops of sugar cane, cotton, corn and soybeans in Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama....
  • New Orleans is a major gateway for U.S. oil imports and agricultural exports, especially corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice. Hurricane damage brought a halt to the flow of agricultural trade through New Orleans which resulted in falling commodity prices in interior states that depend on the Mississippi River waterway to move exports through New Orleans to international  markets. It is still unclear how much time will be required before barge and ship traffic resumes its normal flow, however
  • Energy prices jumped substantially as a significant portion of U.S. petroleum and natural gas production, import, and refining facilities were damaged and shut down.
  • Hurricane Katrina affected 19% of U.S. oil production. Hurricanes Katrina (and a smaller previous Hurricane Rita) destroyed 113 offshore oil and gas platforms, damaged 457 oil and gas pipelines, and spilled nearly as much oil as the Exxon Valdez oil disaster. This caused oil prices to increase by $3 a barrel, and gas prices to nearly reach $5 a gallon.
  • Katrina's impact was so devastating because of its path. It struck the heart of Louisiana's sugar industry, with an estimated $500 million annual crop value, according to the American Sugar Cane League.
Cedar

Offline Frugal Upstate

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #491 on: August 27, 2012, 08:57:43 AM »
Note to self: Stock up even more on sugar and wheat. . .

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #492 on: August 29, 2012, 06:47:57 PM »
Isaac threatens record corn harvest in Louisiana
http://www.katc.com/news/isaac-threatens-record-corn-harvest-in-louisiana/

... And he says about two-thirds of a record 560,000-acre corn crop was still in the field Monday because the low Mississippi River has slowed shipping.

Soybean specialist Ronnie Levy says growers are harvesting as fast as they can, but most of their beans are not yet ready. Levy says 65 to 75 percent may still be in the field by the end of Tuesday. Louisiana has approximately 1.2 million acres of soybeans planted this year.


LA Farmers scramble to bring in soybean crop
http://www.thenewsstar.com/article/20120827/NEWS01/120827035/Farmers-scramble-bring-soybean-crop?odyssey=nav|head



BUT, it is not all bad, "Heavy rain from Hurricane Isaac will stall the harvest of U.S. crops but also add valuable soil moisture ahead of autumn seeding of winter wheat and boost river water levels, aiding waterway transport, an agricultural meteorologist said on Wednesday. "

Cedar
« Last Edit: August 29, 2012, 06:54:39 PM by Cedar »

Offline Oil Lady

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #493 on: August 30, 2012, 11:13:56 AM »
I just launched a brand new thread about a sorry case of an idiot drunken kid (21 years old) who was with a larger group of other young adults who were all visiting some girl's family farm after being drunk at a nearby concert. After he staggered out of her house for the night in the wee hours of the morning, he somehow made his way to the farm's power shed and --for reasons no one really knows, including himself-- he shut off the main breaker for the out-buildings. This shut down ALL the power to three huge industrialized chicken barns, stopping the exhaust fans, and then killing 70,000 chickens in under 20 minutes.


http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=37212.msg419220#msg419220


So .... we now have 70k less chickens for the commodities markets this year, but not due to the drought, but rather due to a complete moron.

Offline Cedar

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Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #495 on: August 31, 2012, 10:57:58 PM »
Got rice?

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Monday 27 percent of the U.S. rice crop had been harvested. Nearly all of the U.S. rice is grown in the Deep South, which is in the path of Isaac.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/30/markets-isaac-rice-idUSL2E8JU8YE20120830

http://deltafarmpress.com/rice/harvest-hurry-isaac-prompts-late-nights-field

Cedar

Offline TexasGirl

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #496 on: September 01, 2012, 02:17:05 PM »
Got rice?

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Monday 27 percent of the U.S. rice crop had been harvested. Nearly all of the U.S. rice is grown in the Deep South, which is in the path of Isaac.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/30/markets-isaac-rice-idUSL2E8JU8YE20120830

http://deltafarmpress.com/rice/harvest-hurry-isaac-prompts-late-nights-field

Cedar

Rice is a major component of TexasGirl's plan.  Prices have been fairly stable for 50lb bags down here over the last year.  As of last week, Sam's Club in NE Texas carried Arkansas rice for less than $16./ 50lb, SE Texas Sam's had Comet rice for less than $17./ 50lb.  I haven't seen Adolphus brand in a year, though.  It was my favorite. 

White rice keeps as well as wheat, but is easily cooked and consumed with no additional prep work required.

~TG

Offline Cedar

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Offline Cedar

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Offline TexasGirl

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #499 on: September 03, 2012, 11:02:58 AM »
Cedar,

After talking to (sheeple) friends and now reading these articles, I'm believing Americans for the most part as believing all this talk about droughts and such is just saying that prices will be going up more for food.  Sure, that is true in a sense, as Americans change from spending 10% of income on food to 12% or even 20%, we will be taking more of the food that was destined for elsewhere in the world.  As one article states, many populations have no extra discretionary income to spend on food commodities, vast shortages and unrest will result.  Somewhere.

It wouldn't take much for that somewhere to be here.  No, we shouldn't be starving like third world countries, it may be more of an inconvenience that our favorite something is no longer on the shelf, or menu.  But folks in this country have rioted on things much less important than starvation.

It makes sense for us to plan ahead, stocking up on things while it is still considered "storing."  After shortages begin to appear, the same act of storing may be considered "hoarding."

Thanks for keeping us up to date!

~TG

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #500 on: September 03, 2012, 12:00:30 PM »
I keep looking for info on what they think the crops/weather for 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 outlook will be. They (the weather dudes) pretty much won't know until December 2012 and then April 2013, but I am concerned. 2012 was the 3rd year and I was concerned as to what 2012 crops would bring us. I am EXTREMELY concerned for 2013. If crops are bad here and abroad in 2013, it is extremely serious. This year will just be a drop in the bucket. There is pretty much nothing we can do about it, other than store, have a garden, convert what we can to grey-water for at-home use, and watch to see what Mother Nature will bring or not bring. Just this summer caused 44 million more people to go hungry in the rest of the world due to the crop shortages in the US. Do I think it could happen here? You bet. We would be foolish to think a famine could not happen here. It is not as likely as elsewhere, but it could happen. 2013-2014 show indicators of being the 'perfect storm' for it from the little tidbits I have been able to glean. Rust in wheat has been spreading across Africa. I hope it stays contained there.

Another interesting thing I have noted... by this time last year I had 400+ jars canned up. I currently have 21 jars canned up. The crops are not coming in to gleaners. We are getting dry bulk, canned goods and some produce, but not enough to put up like we did last year. I suspect this might be that alot of the food might be heading to fill the holes further east from crops which failed and we do not have the surplus. I am also noting we are 3-4 weeks behind on many crops, yet some are early. Like tomorrow I have a blueberry pick to go on, but blues are usually over by now-ish in my area.

In 2008, Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer, at a food aid conference, said his agency faced tough decisions about managing the rest of the reserve in times of widespread hunger. "How far do we draw down?" he asked. "Do we take it down to zero because we need it? Do we hold some in there, because who knows what's going to happen, for emergency purposes later?" It is even lower than that today from when he said that five years ago.

Also in 2008, "Domestic nutrition programs, supported by once-bountiful commodity supplies, also face increasing stress. In a sign of how tight the situation has become, Keenum last summer dug into little-used legal authority to barter the last remaining USDA raw cotton and other surplus for about $120 million of canned meat and other processed goods desperately needed by domestic food banks and international programs. "

The USDA accumulates stockpiles several ways. It buys dairy products when prices are low. Farmers who grow wheat, corn, soybeans and other grains can forfeit their crop to pay off loans. The USDA can buy crops, including fruits and vegetables, when surpluses develop. Many farmers today are growing crops for fuel, not food, a development outside of USDA control and one that makes it harder for the government to manage crop production. As much as a third of the corn crop could be dedicated to ethanol production. Again this is five year old data and from what I can find, it has only gotten worse.

This however, is from this year in April, BEFORE the droughts really started in July and makes me question a few things
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-08/slumping-u-s-crop-reserves-raising-food-costs-in-election-year.html

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #501 on: September 03, 2012, 01:04:29 PM »
I had to go as the phone rang and I did not want to lose my post above...

I keep looking back to the historic times of 1816 and the 1930's agriculturally in the US. We all know that weather/crops cycle.. The 1930's interest me as we are in the same sort of situation now with the weather, economics worldwide and more.. "The decade started with dry years in 1930 and 1931 especially in the East. Then, 1934 recorded extremely dry conditions over almost 80 percent of the United States. Extreme drought conditions returned in 1936, 1939 and 1940." That is 10 years of drought. We only had 60-70% of a drought in the US this year, and although the 1930's was the worst in recorded history, but in prehistoric times, the data suggests that droughts may have lasted decades or even longer. It worries me that farmers in the mid-West are plowing their corn under. I wouldn't have as it is holding the soil in place. The huge dust storms that took acres and acres and acres of topsoil away in the 1930's ... those lessons apparently were not heeded as the agricorps are doing it now. Monocropping to the extremes that farmers in the 1930's would never imagined.

This is the Canadian version of the Great Depression/1930's drought http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/agriculture/drought1930s.html

The current 2010-2012 drought (yes.. it was not just THIS year) has covered 80% of the contiguous United States with at least abnormally dry (D0) conditions. Out of that 80%, 62% is designated as at least moderate drought (D1) conditions. It is affecting a similarly large area as droughts in the 1930s and 1950s but it has not yet been in place as long.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_North_American_drought

Somewhere up there ^^^ I wrote about the "Year without a Summer". We are also at a classic setup for another one of those too. We have volcanoes and earthquakes happening all over the place with another historic low in solar activity as was then. This resulted in major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere in 1816. On 6 June 1816, snow fell in Albany, New York, and Dennysville, Maine. Nearly 12 inches (30 cm) of snow was observed in Quebec City in early June. Cool temperatures and heavy rains resulted in failed harvests in Britain and Ireland as well. Families in Wales traveled long distances as refugees, begging for food. Famine was prevalent in north and southwest Ireland, following the failure of wheat, oats, and potato harvests. The crisis was severe in Germany, where food prices rose sharply. Due to the unknown cause of the problems, demonstrations in front of grain markets and bakeries, followed by riots, arson, and looting, took place in many European cities. Also in China and other countries it effected foods. It was the worst famine of the 19th century.

Think that was a long time ago? The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 led to odd weather patterns and temporary cooling in the United States, particularly in the Midwest and parts of the Northeast. I remember that Mount Saint Helens did in 1980.


Cedar

Offline TexasGirl

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #502 on: September 03, 2012, 02:08:37 PM »
Cedar,

As a nation, we have been fortunate in that most droughts have been regional.  Even in the 30's, Texas was not as hard hit as most of the plains.  Our biggest drought year was 1951, at least until last year, which they say broke that record.  I'm not sure all the numbers are even in yet.

While I have plans in place to feed my love ones, those dependent on grocery store shelves or eating out may suffer.  As commodities get tight, it would almost be expected to see more "not for human consumption" corn and grain being used in processed foods and chain/fast food eateries.  Can you imagine Taco Bell coming up short saying we don't have taco shells, tostado chips, and tortillas?  Or Mc Donalds/Jack/Burger King not having hamburger buns?  MegaCorps will find a way, even if it means using sub-par commodities and fillers.

If anyone reading this forum is still on the fence about whether or not to store food, or how much to store, now is the time to do some soul-searching on the matter.  Personally, I have decided to lay in a bit more of the basics to help others.  I believe Jack has even mentioned this several times before on the air.

~TG

Offline LvsChant

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #503 on: September 04, 2012, 09:30:00 AM »
Thanks for keeping us up to date, Cedar. Even with housebuilding going on, I continue to can and store in Mom's basement here. I'd feel a lot better with more canned veges down there for the winter.

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #504 on: September 04, 2012, 10:00:11 AM »
Buy popcorn.. if I remember right the average family of 4 goes through 12 pounds a year.

http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/2012/09/04/bad-news-for-movie-fans-us-drought-hits-popcorn-crop

Retail prices have jumped this summer: from about $20 for a 50 pound bag to $30 or higher, said Tim Caldwell, owner of Pop It Rite, an Illinois-based popcorn industry expert and snack foods consultant. Wholesale prices have started to creep up, too, he said.

Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #505 on: September 04, 2012, 01:58:03 PM »
WORLD AGRICULTURAL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
August 10, 2012

http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Monthly/current.pdf

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #506 on: September 04, 2012, 02:06:10 PM »
And just for fun (and research) here is where certain commodities come from. Click on a product, like flaxseed. Oregon USED to be a major player for growing flax.. no more.. find out where. Is it grown in the drought or hurricaine areas?

http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP/namerica.htm

Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #507 on: September 04, 2012, 11:43:00 PM »
And apparently stock up on maple syrup

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/31/millions-of-dollars-in-maple-syrup-stolen/?iref=obnetwork

As much as 80% of the world's maple syrup comes from Quebec. Up to 10 million pounds of syrup was in the warehouse, according to a statement from the Federation of Quebec Maple Syrup Producers, which bills itself as keeper of  the global strategic maple syrup reserve.

Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #508 on: September 05, 2012, 08:06:11 AM »
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 18.375 ^ 0.49 cents since yesterday

Wheat and corn have come down a little and leveling off, but soybeans are still climbing. Price in US$ per bushel: $18.3825. All of it is still high.

Cedar

Offline cheryl1

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #509 on: September 05, 2012, 02:33:55 PM »
Harvest is going to be so pitiful this year soybeans will have to hit $50 for me to make any money. For the sake of my grocery bill I hope that doesn't happen!