Author Topic: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)  (Read 381601 times)

Offline mesta26

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #300 on: May 12, 2011, 10:06:29 AM »
I am not a gardener or even inclined in that direction but it was this thread that has convinced me that I had better learn quickly.  Whether or not "food shortages" are going to be a serious issue or not prices are going up and incomes seem to be going down, I am personally of the opinion that there will be less shortage and more people that simply can't afford to eat.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #301 on: May 12, 2011, 10:36:41 AM »
70% of the world's grain is now wheat and we are heavily wheat dependent worldwide,  instead of other traditional grains such as barley, buckwheat, oats, rye, spelt and quinoa. And not all of the wheat produced is used for human consumption. Some of it is for livestock production for meat, milk and eggs. Industrial uses of wheat grain include starch for paste, alcohol, oil, and gluten. The straw may be used for newsprint, paperboard, and other products. I really like the "Wheatboard" and wish they would make more of it.

I know when I was taking my agricultural classes (2-4 hours a day for 4 years in the early 1980's), my Ag instructor even then said that we were overdue for a famine. One of his concerns was wheat. At that time we only had 5 major varieties of wheat grown worldwide (out of hundreds of varieties available) and if a blight had hit any one of those varieties, let alone all of those varieties, we would have been on world-wide starvation due to the dependency on wheat. I wonder what he would say about the "Terminator" wheat crops now.. which didn't exist then.

The Top Ten Wheat Producers in the World — 2010 Production Stats/2011 Projected Stats

1.   China - 112 million metric ton (15.4% of global wheat production)
Says the drought in the country’s main growing region may be prolonged. 42% of the total planted in the eight major producing provinces, has been hit by drought.

 2.  India - 79 million metric ton (11.5%)
India's wheat output in 2011 is likely to hit a record of 81.47 million tons, higher than last year's 80.71 million tons

 3.  United States - 68 million metric ton (9.1%)
 The 2011/12 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies with lower carryin and production than in 2010/11. Beginning stocks for 2011/12 are down 14 percent from 2010/11. U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected at 2,992 million bushels, down 9 percent from 2010/11. According to NASS survey data (not final production data), estimates of this year's Soft Red Winter crop are smaller than last year's in total production in each of the states included in our sampling program. The NASS survey on production shows the estimated Missouri and Illinois crop at approximately 38% of last year's total bushels harvested. The smallest decrease compared to 2009 is Maryland at an estimated 84% of last year's total bushels harvested. Ohio, Kentucky and Virginia are estimated at 71%, 77%, and 74%, respectively, of last year's production. U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected at 2,992 million bushels, down 9 percent from 2010/11. I know alot of the grass seed farmers in my area have ripped out the grass seed production and has planted wheat on speculation. I think they did right.

 4.  Russia - 64 million metric ton (7.3%)
No export this year

 5.  France - 39 million metric ton (5.9%)
 In a “danger zone” as drought reduces the potential harvest. France just had its second-hottest April since 1900 and one of the driest since 1953, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

 6.  Canada - 29 million metric ton (4.1%)
 A recovery in production and improved wheat quality in Canada is also expected to increase export competition.

 7.  Germany - 26 million metric ton (3.8%)
The 2010/11 season saw a very poor start for German wheat. A heat wave followed by persistent rains rendered much of the country's spring crop suitable only for animal feed. The previous year the harvest came in at a healthy 25.2mn tonnes. They are now forecasting production in 2010/11 to fall to 23.2mn tonnes, down 7.9%

 8.  Ukraine - 26 million metric ton (3.8%)
No export this year 

 9.  Australia - 21 million metric ton (3.4%)
Floods and Droughts

 10. Pakistan    21 million metric ton (3.4%)
Conflicting reports. Some sources say they are in their 3rd bumper crop year and other reports say Pakistan's floods have destroyed more than 500,000 tons of seed wheat, besides ruining some land, on the eve of the planting season, extending the country's agricultural concerns into next year's crop.

This is a good read and dated May 11th, 2011, the next report will come out June 9th, 2011
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

Grass fires across the state of Missouri and Texas and are beginning to affect dairy farmers. While some pastures had already been supplemented with water from creeks, the drought has dried up many of the local creeks and prices of livestock feed have begun creeping upwards.

The Guardian reports that in 2007 approximately 40% of the world's agricultural land is seriously degraded.

Eastern Europe experienced more than 150 recorded famines between AD 1500 and 1700 and there were 100 hunger years and 121 famine years in Russia between AD 971 and 1974. Droughts and famines in Russia are known historically to have happened every 10 to 13 years, with average droughts happening every 5 to 7 years.

I actually have a corn variety in my collection from "The Year Without a Summer" that happened in 1816, in which severe summer climate abnormalities caused average global temperatures to decrease by about 0.7–1.3 °F, resulting in major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere. It is believed that the anomaly was caused by a combination of a historic low in solar activity with a volcanic winter event, the latter caused by a succession of major volcanic eruptions capped off by the Mount Tambora eruption of 1815, the largest known eruption in over 1,300 years.



Photo Above: "Roy’s Calais" - Flint
Roy's Calais flint corn is one of Vermont's heirloom corns. It was grown by the Abenaki Indians, and was the only corn variety that survived the snows of June and hard freezes of July, 1816. It was grown by a family in Calais, Vermont since shortly after the Civil War, but was nearly lost to the world. Can be harvested in as little as 85 days.


With much of the southern, midwest and western states already experiencing or about to experience severe drought (or flooding), prices of these crops have also increased:

    * Corn: Up 63%
    * Wheat: Up 84%
    * Soybeans: Up 24%
    * Sugar: Up 55%

They are projecting that milk prices will be up, cow amounts will be down, and cow production for each cow will be up (more Bovine Growth Hormones being injected?)

As I learned about the "The Year Without a Summer"  (which I would never have known about if I had not added that heirloom corn to my collection and did some research on it), I am currently more concerned about the volcanic activity happening with seemingly increased activity and intensity and the countries which are all having issues at the same time. It looks like the perfect recipe for a famine to happen. It may not happen, but one more 'straw' and it very well could happen.

"As a result of the series of volcanic eruptions, crops in the above-mentioned areas had been poor for several years; the final blow came in 1815 with the eruption of Tambora. Europe, still recuperating from the Napoleonic Wars, suffered from food shortages. Food riots broke out in the United Kingdom and France, and grain warehouses were looted. The violence was worst in landlocked Switzerland, where famine caused the government to declare a national emergency. Huge storms and abnormal rainfall with floodings of the major rivers of Europe (including the Rhine) are attributed to the event, as was the frost setting in during August 1816. A major typhus epidemic occurred in Ireland between 1816 and 1819, precipitated by the famine caused by "The Year Without a Summer". It is estimated that 100,000 Irish perished during this period. A BBC documentary using figures compiled in Switzerland estimated that fatality rates in 1816 were twice that of average years, giving an approximate European fatality total of 200,000 deaths.

New England also experienced great consequences from the eruption of Tambora. The corn crop was grown significantly in New England and the eruption caused the crop to fail. It was reported that in the summer of 1816 corn ripened so badly that no more than a quarter of it was usable for food. The crop failures in New England, Canada and parts of Europe also caused the price of wheat, grains, meat, vegetables, butter, milk and flour to rise sharply."


Is it not said that history repeats itself? Even Mother Nature?

I don't think it will be any one thing which will cause problems, but as stated above in the quote, if something happens, it will be a multitude of things such as war, economic issues, crop failures lack of diversity, and the elements of natural Earth cycles.

Cedar
« Last Edit: May 12, 2011, 10:52:04 AM by Cedar »

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #302 on: May 12, 2011, 11:10:14 AM »
Let's see what's going on globally:

KABUL, Afghanistan, Jan. 19 (UPI) -- International partners teamed up with Afghan leaders to discuss the seriousness of food security issues in the country, the World Food Program said. Louis Imbleau, the WFP representative in Afghanistan, met with Afghan leaders in Kabul to discuss bilateral measures needed to address food shortages in the war-torn country.
"This groundbreaking meeting is a sign of how serious all parties are about the need to improve Afghanistan's food security," said Imbleau. WFP launched a three-year relief and recovery operation in Afghanistan in April. The agency said it was working on addressing immediate humanitarian needs for those affected by conflict in Afghanistan. By working with the government in Kabul, meanwhile, WFP is addressing long-term rehabilitation strategies in the country. WFP said its aim is to provide food assistance to the nearly 7.3 million Afghans suffering from a shortage of food. About 31 percent of the Afghan population was identified as "food-insecure" by a 2007 report on national risks. WFP during its Kabul meeting established a network of working groups to find common approaches to agricultural and nutritional development in the country.


"Wheat is the main staple crop there and Afghanistan needs about 5.2 million tonnes a year to meet demand in a country where two in three people do not get enough food to meet their nutritional needs. Afghanistan, now in its tenth year of conflict since the Taliban were ousted in 2001, is ranked as one of the world's poorest countries for food security, with crops often unusable due to seeding with improvised bombs."

Cedar

Offline LvsChant

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #303 on: May 12, 2011, 11:15:30 AM »
River flooding in Arkansas has potential to ruin rice crop for this year...

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #304 on: May 12, 2011, 11:21:52 AM »
River flooding in Arkansas has potential to ruin rice crop for this year...

Arkansas Farm Bureau Director of Commodity and Regulatory Affairs Warren Carter estimated that the reduction in the state's rice area would be 300,000 acres, resulting in the loss of $300 million in rice production.

Cedar

Offline technicalanarchy

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #305 on: May 14, 2011, 11:54:28 AM »
Arkansas Farm Bureau Director of Commodity and Regulatory Affairs Warren Carter estimated that the reduction in the state's rice area would be 300,000 acres, resulting in the loss of $300 million in rice production.

Cedar

Keeping up (somewhat) with the flooding Mississippi and Texas wildfires is concerning I think. Honestly I'm not sure how much effect several million acres of lost crops will have. Corn, wheat, soy, rice, cotton.

Is it henny penny the sky is falling time? I check the commodity prices on corn, wheat, soy, cattle and a few other things on my Droid everyday for fun, prices incresed over the past year dramatically like 50 to 100% on most of the mentioned items. Will this millions of acres of loss make it go up even more or will China handle it?

Haven't heard anything from the "government" to speak of except a few weeks ago Hillary Clinton warned of a famine possiblity for the poorest nations due to rising prices. She said it wasn't as dire as in 2008 will this flooding and fire make the situation dire?


Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #306 on: May 14, 2011, 02:32:47 PM »
Honestly I'm not sure how much effect several million acres of lost crops [in Arkansas] will have. Corn, wheat, soy, rice, cotton.

The states that grow rice commercially in the USA
1. Arkansas. Grows 40% of the US production. Grows 1.5 million acres of rice yearly.
2. California. 500,000 acres of rice grown a year
3. Louisiana. 520,000 acres a year
4. Mississippi. 235,000 acres a year.
5 Texas 200,000 acres a year
6 Missouri. 190,000 acres

Cedar

Offline Polar Bear

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Prediction of food prices doubling by 2030?
« Reply #307 on: May 30, 2011, 06:01:10 PM »
Food always goes up along with inflation and is defintely higher than it was in the 90's but is this really possible?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-13597657

If so, I wonder how many more home gardens will be popping up?

Offline fritz_monroe

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Re: Prediction of food prices doubling by 2030?
« Reply #308 on: May 30, 2011, 06:15:51 PM »
I'm kind of surprised that they think it will take almost 20 years to double. 

Offline Nicodemus

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Re: Prediction of food prices doubling by 2030?
« Reply #309 on: May 30, 2011, 06:20:43 PM »
No kidding. Aren't some foods already up more than 20% in the last few years alone?

Offline d0j0w0

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Re: Prediction of food prices doubling by 2030?
« Reply #310 on: May 30, 2011, 06:38:50 PM »
Some foods are up 50% or more from last year.  Don't forget the little tricks like companies using smaller containers and then raising the price. It happens all the time. 

Offline Polar Bear

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Re: Prediction of food prices doubling by 2030?
« Reply #311 on: May 30, 2011, 08:02:54 PM »
Thanks for the replies guys.  It let's me know that I put this in the right spot and posted it in the tight way along with helping with more viewpoints on the subject.

I'm going to try to expand my garden and grow some corn in September.  (Too hot here already in S.W. Florida)

Offline sdcharger

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #312 on: June 01, 2011, 10:47:50 AM »
Rising costs have definitely changed the way we cook and eat.  Cheaper cuts of meat and more chicken for sure this year.  Steak is not on the menu as often either.

I plan on adding a freezer to take advantage of sales and store game meat.  I haven't been hunting much the last 10 years but I plan to change that this year.

Offline Greywolf27

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #313 on: June 01, 2011, 07:15:36 PM »
Rising costs have definitely changed the way we cook and eat.  Cheaper cuts of meat and more chicken for sure this year.  Steak is not on the menu as often either.

I plan on adding a freezer to take advantage of sales and store game meat.  I haven't been hunting much the last 10 years but I plan to change that this year.

Same here, I used to eat red meat at least once a week, now, it has been about twice a month.  Whole chickens were $.75 / lbs last week, we picked up two.  We did purchase some tri tip, it was 56% "below normal price", came out to $3.99 /lbs.  I hate to say it, but I think the red meat below $2/lbs is gone (from the grocery store).

Offline sdcharger

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #314 on: June 02, 2011, 08:33:18 AM »
We've been doing pork chops on the grill and kabobs as well.  It's not steak but it will have to do :)

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #315 on: June 02, 2011, 11:16:44 AM »
Go coupon crazy, check supermarket for sales, or like a friend of mine order a side of beef.
My wife has found great deals on steaks.

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #316 on: June 08, 2011, 10:28:04 AM »
Mozambique's Struggles Fueled By The Price Of Bread

Quote
Bread was "the spark" for riots last September, says Mozambican journalist and publisher Fernando Lima. He explains that last year, when the Mozambican government announced that food subsidies would end, and the price of bread would jump 20 percent, hunger turned to rage.[/url]
They restored the subsidies to end the riots, but because of rising costs, it's likely they'll have to remove the subsidies again very soon.  ... and this is just one of many countries in the same boat.

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Offline LvsChant

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #318 on: July 10, 2011, 07:20:10 PM »
I just read this article about the drought in Africa causing hundreds of thousands of people to flee to refugee camps:

http://lewrockwell.com/rep2/world-running-out-of-food.html

As mentioned in the article, countries like the U.S., Australia and other western countries will most likely not see the types of problems experienced over there, but still... common sense would say we would be wise to have an extra supply on hand.

endurance

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #319 on: July 13, 2011, 10:08:31 PM »
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=europe-braces-for-serious-crop-losses

Not a good situation for the folks in Europe.
Interesting, because I've been watching the Tour de France and it seems to be raining nearly every day.  Hopefully it's a sign the drought is beginning to loosen.

Offline Greywolf27

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #320 on: July 14, 2011, 08:59:43 AM »
Interesting, because I've been watching the Tour de France and it seems to be raining nearly every day.  Hopefully it's a sign the drought is beginning to loosen.

Just because it is raining in one part of the country doesn't necessarily mean the drought is over.  It is raining and there is still snow on the ground in Mammoth CA, though in AZ it is super dry.  The different climates of France are one of the reasons they have such a diversity of wines, and variations of flavors in the same varietals.

I agree, I hope that is a good sign. 

P.S. how about that Jens Voigt!!!

Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #322 on: July 26, 2011, 08:29:21 PM »
There is the drought in Texas going on right now. Nearly every county in Texas in bone dry forcing ranchers to thin their herds because the grass is dead, no nutritional value at all, plus the cost of importing grass and grain is cost prohibitive. Processing facilities are seeing double the cattle than usual. So short term we may see a drop in beef prices as supply exceeds demand but that's short term. Stock up because a mature cow only has one calf per year, it will take years for the ranchers to rebuild their herds from what they have left.

Offline jpommer

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Drought Withers Smallest Hay Crop in Century to Boost Beef Costs
« Reply #323 on: July 27, 2011, 07:29:33 AM »

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Re: Drought Withers Smallest Hay Crop in Century to Boost Beef Costs
« Reply #324 on: July 27, 2011, 08:32:02 AM »
Plenty of hay here.  Good spring we may even see 3 cuts this season.

Offline jpommer

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Re: Drought Withers Smallest Hay Crop in Century to Boost Beef Costs
« Reply #325 on: July 27, 2011, 08:37:56 AM »
Hope there's enough to go around. We're in trouble out this way.

Offline chris

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Re: Drought Withers Smallest Hay Crop in Century to Boost Beef Costs
« Reply #326 on: July 27, 2011, 12:31:02 PM »
Hay prices are killing me. Im having to stock up now, just in case it continues. So the hay I feed this winter will be high priced, even if the rains come. Bad year to raise cows.

Offline sdcharger

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #327 on: July 30, 2011, 01:19:12 AM »
The coffee beans I buy have doubled in price in the last 2-3 years.  Not something I am willing to reduce or substitute either.

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #328 on: July 30, 2011, 06:33:41 AM »
Despite having great rainfall so far this summer in much of Colorado's hay growing areas, the prices are still up about a dollar to two dollars a bail because of increased demand from our neighbors to the south.  We were lucky and put up a lot last fall, but unfortunately we're about tapped now and shopping around again.

Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #329 on: July 30, 2011, 06:37:05 AM »
The coffee beans I buy have doubled in price in the last 2-3 years.  Not something I am willing to reduce or substitute either.

I do not drink coffee, but I am pretty sure that I have read somewhere on the forum that whole unground coffee beans will last a while in light and oxygen free environment.