Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak

[Carver]

But not all share those sentiments. Take September 11, 2001 for example; not so long afterwards a pro-enemy following developed making accusations of a phobia related to the nationality or religion of those who claimed responsibility. Earlier this year the queen of the House of Representatives marched through Chinatown in S.F. defending China (but these were Americans of Chinese descent) and any critical take of China then, and now, and will be, is xenophobic hate speech; and they have a very adamant following. I'm not making that up. In between them and that now majority that look unfavorably upon China and their goods is a vast percentage that only temporarily care and will before long not give a rat's ass. There are very lively discussions amongst preppers over the boycott or buy China topic.

China isn't going away anymore than Nazi's went away when Germany lost WWII or Stalinism went away when the Soviet Union collapsed. China will suffer but China will adapt and apply force through their tentacles that pervade western capitalism and technology. They own our pork processing facilities, they have major stakes in sports, in U.S. and European technology and have a tradition of long term planning. Whereas we look to the next election they look towards the next 100 years.

Instead of making boycotting China our strategy, we should focus on dismantling globalism, the Trojan horse of communism. We need to take a serious look at ourselves and what we need and ask "why can't we make this here?" and then do it.

[surfivor]

Various other lawsuits are mentioned in the article below

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/05/18/business/campgrounds-and-restaurant-owners-sue-janet-mills-over-14-day-quarantine-rule/

Owners of campgrounds and restaurants in southern Maine have sued Gov. Janet Mills for imposing a 14-day quarantine for out-of-state travelers coming here. The lawsuit seeks an injunction to lift the requirement.

Three residents of Maine and New Hampshire also are plaintiffs — they claim the quarantine rule violates their constitutional right to travel freely within the United States.

..

“So, although the governor has publicly acknowledged that she lacks the authority to close the Maine border, the quarantine restrictions effectively do just that,” attorneys Gene Libby and Tyler Smith, both of Kennebunk, said in the lawsuit.

[surfivor]

 I studied Thai Chi and Kung Fu off and on at a martial arts studio in my area for many years. The sifu there is very accomplished teacher who grew up in Chinatown and has been on the cover of Thai Chi magazine. I got an email that due to the covid situation he is having severe financial problems. He had only recently rented more space and had increased some fees to cover it but he can't hold classes anymore.

[iam4liberty]

So State Farm lowered auto insurance premiums again because of drop in driving and therefore accidents.  Ours dropped by 60% in total.  At this rate they will soon be paying us!

[Stwood]

So State Farm lowered auto insurance premiums again because of drop in driving and therefore accidents.  Ours dropped by 60% in total.  At this rate they will soon be paying us!

They could lower mine anytime.....I haven't heard zip from them about lowering mine.

[iam4liberty]

They could lower mine anytime.....I haven't heard zip from them about lowering mine.

It varies by state and timing was determined by when bill was due.. But you should have received something as it started in late March!  You should call your agent.  Here is the FAQ: https://newsroom.statefarm.com/good-neighbor-relief-frequently-asked-questions/#6

[Stwood]

Hmmmm yea.
Well, I bought a car and sold another right during all that, and my auto deductions have been kinda screwed up lately. One was way low, last month.
So maybe I just haven't been notified.

[mountainmoma]

Well, good thing I tightened my belt more, although it was already tight, and planted the much larger garden.

I lost alot of income a couple months ago due to COVID shut down side effects, and it is not looking to turn around. We will see, maybe in a few months.  If they think they can raise taxes in this environment !  Property taxes and homeowners insurance are now just themselves, take  a large chunk of my incoming money.  Those are not "forgiven".  They can defer payments on the mortgage, but the money paid to the government and insurance company stays. Renters are always mentioned, but you dont realy own when the outgo to the government and insurance companies are so high. 

I am fine.  And, I think it will resolve to some type of plateu new normal by the new year, resolve at least for another while.  I need nothing.  Im a prepper.  I could even cut off utilities entirely and live fine, but it wont come to that, my solar is large enough to pump water and power the refrigerator.  I heat with wood.  I even have those tattler lids if I run out of canning jar flats....

I think that many in the general public do not know to move as swiftly when the signs are there.  And the 2nd order effects of that could spill over to us all too.

News says that the downtown area of one of the small cities ( less than 50k people) in this county has lost 13 store front businesses, that city is dependent on University and Tourists.

[Stwood]

Sounds like you are all prepared MM. 

We are basically there, just haven't ever set up to pump water if the grid goes down, or can't pay the elec bill.
I'm working on it though. Thought occurred to me this morning, I need to go visit with the Amish down the road a bit. Several families moved in a couple of years ago and are getting established pretty well.
They've probably set up manual pumps on the wells on the properties they have purchased.

We have a solar setup here, but I need more roof line to put it on. And, it's a grid tied system.

[Stwood]

Oh. Walmart and Amazon seem to be getting some Augason Farms stock back in.
I've been catching a few cans here and there the last couple of weeks.

[mountainmoma]

My solar is hybrid, grid tied with some backup, not alot.  For basic needs I dont need alot.  If I cut off utilites, the main change is that I would no longer have a kitchen stove or water heater, as they are 240V.  And no light in the downstairs bathroom... the vageries of the limitations of moving some circuits to the four backed-up circuits that come from the inverter.  The bathroom lights, and one of the living room outlets, seem to be connected in line to the utility room and then garage lights.  All of that is easily worked around, I do it all the time during multi-day power outages.  Just saying, when you come in and put in a retro-fit thing, like limited circuits/amps can be fed from the inverter, and the house was not wired for that, you do what you can.  I have lights everywhere but that one bathroom, and outlets in many spots all over. I usually end up with the toaster and electric kettle plugged in to outlets next to the dining table, which is next to the wood stove.  Realy, if I was a pioneer woman, I would still be just so, so pleased to have electric lights, a refrigerator, and indoor plumbing ( even if it is not heated).  And, so I am pleased now too when I need to step down to that.  I even have solar ovens that heat up food and hot water when it is too hot to run the wood stove -- if I was a pioneer woman, that in itself would be another amazing thing !  I have been practicing some of this lately just to stay limber.  I have been playing how-low-can-you go most days on electric useage, sometimes I forget, to make sure I have the bugs worked out.   I told someone else I was in to play the "turn off utilites for the weekend" this weekend coming up, which includes not using the solar, which will be no problem.  A fun break, like camping.  My water tank will gravity feed the house with the pressure pump off, 48 hours wont harm the fridge food if it stays closed, and I have a solar oven and plenty of easy food.... It does take a bit longer to water the garden that way, and I wont be on the internet, which means I should get lots done, excepting I wont can anything of course on those 2 days.  I do not want to can outdoors on the rocket stove, although another time, I will have to practice that too.

This is all "play" realy, or practice for a real SHTF, the power company only charges me a small monthly fee to be my main battery and 240V supplier, so, we would have to be in a major depression, or I would have to get a few more notches up in being irritated with the power company, before I would unplug.  But, it is nice to know I could. Because either could happen

But, like I said, the problem isnt that I can get by -- the problem is the 2nd order effects from the other people who would freak out

[iam4liberty]

Excellent run through of preps, mountainmoma.  You rock.

What type of solor oven are you using? That is a great prep that few have experienced. Fun story, at one of the labs I worked we would have an annual cookout using solor ovens. The fresh buffalo burgers from them were the best burgers I've ever had.

[mountainmoma]

Excellent run through of preps, mountainmoma.  You rock.

What type of solor oven are you using? That is a great prep that few have experienced. Fun story, at one of the labs I worked we would have an annual cookout using solor ovens. The fresh buffalo burgers from them were the best burgers I've ever had.

I organized a solar cookout in a park some years ago, I was briefly leading a local group, but it wasnt just that group that benefitted, and about 4 of us brought various ovens, it was a very public place so it was a good display for others too. 

I have 2 Sun Ovens, and sun ovens often use stacking pots, so I realy could do alot, but almost always these days I am only running one of them, for multiple uses all day most often.  Like scald the milk to make yogurt, then put in a loaf of bread, then put in dinner main dish, double pan with bottom pan full of water to heat for washing dishes.  This is very good practice and doing more outside is very grounding.  It is like having a summer kitchen, just not fancy.  Keeps from heating up the house too. 

I was using a solar shower for a while, but it was on its last legs, broken shower tip, so I havent this week.  That is an additional nice thing to do, rinse off outside.  And, that also helps to not silt up the septic tank, get that garden dirt off not into house drain pipes. But, I do not find the solar showers to be very durable, and I hate waste.  This one was better than many, but you should never step on the plastic shower head in the garage off season

[David in MN]

My daughter is slated to start kindergarten in a month. The school district (which is a good one and one of the reasons we f-ing live here) decided they will be open 2 days per week. So we'd be getting 40% service at full price.

This has put us and several other families we know in an interesting bind. Obviously 2 days per week is completely unacceptable. Private schools are filling fast. That's one option and going back to her Montessori is an option. Then there's the homeschool thing and while I think I could deliver a great education focusing on phonics, trivium, quadrivian, Grecko/Roman mythology, and the myriad of hard sciences it still sucks because the COVID fear really takes out other human interaction.

It's a mess right now and we're going to have to out of pocket fix it. Would be nice to see my taxes eased because they aren't providing the service but that will happen when pigs fly.

[Stwood]

Youngest GD's school is planning that 2-day a week school thing, delayed until second week of August.
It has their parents in a mind bind, wondering wtf to do as they both work.

[David in MN]

How about the abandonment of NYC? I heard the dumbest living human, Bill DeBlasio, comment that he wouldn't open resstaurants until possibly next June because what they are currently doing "is working".

Can we define "working"? NYC was the ground zero of CORONA in the USA with 23,000 deaths. It's also a city that relies heavily on tourism and the arts, both of which are dead. Congratulations, Broadway, we watched Hamilton on Disney+.

As bad as all that is, there is another variable that portents quite worse. The NY Times estimates that about 40% of its wealthiest residents have left the city. It's even tougher to gauge how many younger, less affluent people just packed up for aunt Sue's in Montana. But suffice to say population growth is negative.

Wealthy people aren't dumb. They know that NYC without the dining, arts, and culture is just living in an overpriced hotel room with an unusable kitchen. So why not rent a ranch in Texas or a riverside cottage in Wisconsin? And it's not just them. I suspect that NYC competent waitstaff could be hired at the best restaurants in any city so why not if you know you're waiting until June? Also, there's a big effect in losing the people who dine out. I suspect the price of seafood will fall.

This will be a long, ugly recovery for the city.

[Morning Sunshine]

My uncle owns a cabinetry business and shop.  He is based in Northern Idaho, and does jobs from from Phoenix to Seattle (with the odd job in Tahiti and Samoa 10 plus years ago to help with the temples there for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints).  They do cabinetry for churches, banks, businesses, schools, etc.

We were up there last week, and my Cousin, J - who works for and mostly runs the business now, was talking about the jobs they are doing.
They are still working, but it is all jobs that were arranged before COVID.  And they are not getting paid as promptly as they were pre-March; they are having to really pound the businesses to get paid.  The church jobs - mostly for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints - have not asked for bids since then.  Not one in the entire Mormon Corridor (That is north to Calgary and south to Phoenix, in a mostly straight line, but also including Vegas).  They are still bidding jobs, but not winning any bids; my aunt - who does the bidding part of the business - was unsure if the companies are not actually contracting with anyone right now (in other words, just pricing a project without plans to actually do it right now) or if my uncle's company is just not winning any bids.

Anecdote but indicative of a commercial construction trend.


ps - in April, my aunt had to make them bandana masks for a job they were doing.  Doesn't that sound funny - they HAD to wear masks to do their Bank Job 

[iam4liberty]

Did a quick look at some asset performances versus a year ago.  The US dollar has dropped about 4% relative to basket of other currencies.  Parachuting money will tend to do that.  But many asset classes are still in bull territory making this one of the best investment time periods on record despite (and in some cases, because of) pandemic.  'Old school' prepper investment of gold and silver has been great. It is also interesting to see the gun stock performance given riots, such as Ruger doubling.  And, of course, there is amazon and Zoom driven by the stay-at-home orders.  Net, the last year has provided some really great opportunities for enhancing retirement savings.

DJIA: +4.4%
S&P 500: +14.0%
NASDAQ: +37.0%
Growth Stocks (VWUSX); +41.3%
Long-Term Bond (VBLAX): +14.0%
Short-Term Bond (VBISX): +2.7%
Gold: +35.7%
Silver: +65.8%
Platinum: +11.5%
Copper: +10.0%
Bitcoin: -2.9%
Bitcoin Cash: -8.0%
Sturm, Ruger & Company: +99.9%
Amazon.com: +72.7%
Zoom: +174.0%
US Dollar Index (DXY): -4.1%

[mountainmoma]

Anectodotal, but in answer to what DaveMN is saying about young people leaving cities.

1) one is relation, 30something couple, were living in SF, engaged, good paying corporate jobs.  Had to put off large wedding, so did a civil wedding, went to his midwest families digs to wait out the virus, he is working remote at teh moment still, her job is gone entirely, so they will start a family since she's out of work anyways.  So, went from SF 2 hgh income yuppy lifestyle to midwest, traditional young family just-like-that

2) One of my offsprings friends.  The 22year old new college grad had landed a job in Boston, COVID hit so never has worked on site, but at the moment working remote.  Older sibling of this new grad had been living in NYC with boyfriend for some years now.  They both decided to hit out to his families land in Texas, new grad leaves Boston to join them.  No more NYC or Boston, it is a lake in Texas somewheres. 

[iam4liberty]

No kidding. There is so much construction here from demand from people moving that there is no lumber in any of the stores.  Orders are backlogged at least two weeks.  Concrete prices are up double from last year this time.  Wealthy people who have Summer homes on golf courses and lakes have moved in permanently and enrolled their kids in school. Parochial schools opened last week and government schools open this week.  We essentially added a five thousand family city and it just keeps going

[David in MN]

Well we are learning about what industries were rotten "on the vine".

Took a Reason podcast for me to realize I haven't worn a suit since January. Might not sound like a lot but I have a penchant for mens' neckwear and adore my bowties and cravats. Basically I have 2 looks: Snazzy out on the town or pretty much homeless in sweatpants. I'm not alone and the fashion industry is taking a beating. Turns out Manolo Blahniks aren't good for the end of days and while we "need" our garden boots and I'm sure Carhartt is doing good the 4 fashion shows per year determining the look of the next season are gone.

Same story with film. Netflix and Amazon are pushing out content but the big film operations are being choked. Don't hold your breath for the next big blockbuster because the budgets are being decimated.

Perhaps the most glaring is the education industry. I don't know about your public school but mine is trying to convince me that they are not "necessary" and can do a full time job in 2 days per week. Right now young parents are frustrated and trying to seek a good education for the kids but as this sinks in they might realize that 60% of their 15,000 hours were admittedly superfluous. Not my opinion; that's the word of the teachers' unions.

Start looking around. Lots of industries are getting tossed.

[iam4liberty]

Took a Reason podcast for me to realize I haven't worn a suit since January. Might not sound like a lot but I have a penchant for mens' neckwear and adore my bowties and cravats. Basically I have 2 looks: Snazzy out on the town or pretty much homeless in sweatpants. I'm not alone and the fashion industry is taking a beating. Turns out Manolo Blahniks aren't good for the end of days and while we "need" our garden boots and I'm sure Carhartt is doing good the 4 fashion shows per year determining the look of the next season are gone.

Spot on.  I have been in a suit twice since this has happened.  I have really fallen off the deep end and bought two pairs of cargo sweat shorts!

Same story with film. Netflix and Amazon are pushing out content but the big film operations are being choked. Don't hold your breath for the next big blockbuster because the budgets are being decimated.

It is actually worse than this.  They have an inventory of four months of blockbusters which are in the can but not released because theaters are closed.  So now studios have to figure out how to release these.  Generally, each big movie has their own opening weekend where they would only be competing against smaller new releases and carryovers from previous weeks.  But when theaters fully reopen, there is a danger that all the studios will rush to get them out thereby splitting box office more than normal.  Then this will be followed by a dearth of movies until filming gets reactivated.  It is a rare case where collusion may be beneficial.

[Stwood]

So we may find out how many hollywood stars really don't have 400m in the bank, and may soon be in the soup lines with everyone else.

[David in MN]

How about the downfall of New York and California as economic hotspots? Good data is hard to come by but NYC office buildings seem to be sitting at a 10% occupancy rate. That's pathetic. Both states have also lost a good chunk of population.

Hard to say for sure but it sure looks like NYC, Silicon Valley, and LA are losing people to Texas. We could be entering a new paradigm where the business center of the country is Texas.

Interesting changes are coming.

[iam4liberty]

Hard to say for sure but it sure looks like NYC, Silicon Valley, and LA are losing people to Texas. We could be entering a new paradigm where the business center of the country is Texas.

Funny you should say that.  I was on a conference call with an exec who let us know they are downsizing their LA office by moving 75% of employees there to Plano.  90% decided to do the move rather than taking compensation and staying in California.  Their biggest client, a big global manufacturer, has been moving most of their US headquarters staff to Texas and incentivized their suppliers to do the same.  One of their competitors is doing the same with Tennessee.   So, when these companies move, they take others with them.

[David in MN]

Funny you should say that.  I was on a conference call with an exec who let us know they are downsizing their LA office by moving 75% of employees there to Plano.  90% decided to do the move rather than taking compensation and staying in California.  Their biggest client, a big global manufacturer, has been moving most of their US headquarters staff to Texas and incentivized their suppliers to do the same.  One of their competitors is doing the same with Tennessee.   So, when these companies move, they take others with them.

Not that surprising. Depending on whose numbers you look at right now Texas is the #1 location for companies leaving California. Texas already boasts ~50 Fortune 500 businesses. The shift is that most Texas business is legacy stuff like oil, aerospace, and infrastructure. If they could woo some of the tech sector that state would look like a juggernaut.

I've got kin all over this country and the aunt in DFW just keeps talking about the massive growth from 2019-2020. Which is odd because back in the 70s when they all struck out my uncle went to work in tech in California and Texas was (not to be rude) kind of thought of as a backwater. Those tables are turning.

I can also anecdotally say that both my mother and sister were/are 80% travel as project leads. Mom was finding that all her work was Texas and fly-over states like your Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, etc. My sister is national but despite living in Virginia she spends about 2/3 of her time in only one city: Atlanta.

I'm wondering if COVID was just the push people needed to get out of office they didn't really want. A lot of companies squander money horribly keeping up lavish offices that provide little value.

There is a more macro thing going on that this is forcing us to face. I think companies will redefine "going to work". It also gives the excuse to shrug high tax areas. Things change quick. Detroit was once the crown jewel of the Midwest. In Two Years Before the Mast (1840) Dana calls San Francisco "a hill". Perhaps we are watching a new American migration.

[DDJ]

The company I work for was just about to send 1/3 of our workforce to work from home when the Covid hit the fan.  Then we, even as a "essential" company, sent everyone to work from home in March.   I worked form home until July when I get assigned a new desk in the plant.  I went to Headquarters yesterday and there is maybe 10% in the office.  Most that are left are mechanical engineers.  Even the customer help desk people are working remotely.  So yes Covid is going to push companies to down size their offices and remote the staff.  That is going to play havoc on the city taxes.  The tax base is going to get spread out.  I was paying city taxes to the city HQ is in but if I were to work from home I should not be charged city tax (I am in a township with no income tax).  Bigger cities are going to see their tax income drop because the commuters are paying to the outlaying communities which are often less taxes.  If the city is not getting the income tax from the workers they are not going to offer incentives to the companies to come into or stay in town.  With no incentives the company moves.  Then the cycle gets bigger.