Author Topic: It's time to watch Turkey  (Read 5230 times)

Offline Greekman

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It's time to watch Turkey
« on: January 31, 2014, 04:44:22 AM »
Turkey is in an economic turmoil.
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/limits-turkeys-interest-rate-hike

The situation has been nurturing for about 2 months now, and started by the time huge corruption scandals broke out (i.e. a close relative of the prime minister erdogan fled the country)
and when Erdogan started a small war againsy former ally, Fetulah Gioulen (who supported the Islamic party election, runs Islamic many schools and resides/refugees in the US)
and when it was revelaed that Turkey (actually its intelligence service that is closely controled by the PM) was involved on helping and suppling the AlQuedda factions in Syria

it is a mess


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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #1 on: February 02, 2014, 05:41:44 PM »
Turkey is in an economic turmoil.
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/limits-turkeys-interest-rate-hike

The situation has been nurturing for about 2 months now, and started by the time huge corruption scandals broke out (i.e. a close relative of the prime minister erdogan fled the country)
and when Erdogan started a small war againsy former ally, Fetulah Gioulen (who supported the Islamic party election, runs Islamic many schools and resides/refugees in the US)
and when it was revelaed that Turkey (actually its intelligence service that is closely controled by the PM) was involved on helping and suppling the AlQuedda factions in Syria

it is a mess

The part I put in bold....I believe that shoe is about to fall and fall hard.  I specifically remember our Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) questioning then Sec. of State Hillary Clinton about the running of arms out of Libya, through Turkey, to Syria.  She was stunned, paused, and then quickly denied knowledge and told him to ask some other agency.  Within the past two weeks I've read about several raids in Turkey have uncovered smuggling houses for small arms. 

The economic destabilization could have contagion in the region.  Not good at all.



 

Offline Greekman

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #2 on: February 02, 2014, 11:41:29 PM »
There are be many geostaregic changes made.

None knwo fo sure, but there is a chance a less islamic-friendly goverment is installed )more western-friendly).
the Generals may come into matters again.

There will be big developments in the Kurdish front for sure. Kurds in iraq enjoy a semi-autonomus status, and the ones in Syria have cordoned their own territory and ousted the rest of the Syrian antigoverment forces. Both communities are or becoming players in the energy market. A turkey break up will be the begining of the kurdish state.

Tensions with Greece will rise return, Turkey has always been exporting its internal problems.
If my goverment plays it out right we will be gaining on the disputed gas and shells gas regions in the eastern Aegean seabord

Offline Cedar

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #3 on: February 03, 2014, 07:01:04 AM »
I can only watch one revolution at a time.. so what is happening in Turkey?

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #4 on: February 03, 2014, 10:17:00 AM »
Telegraphically.

triple elections in June
Erdogan is leaving primeministry and wants to run for president. made changes to laws to allow his easy passage
messed up in Syria, Israel, Egypt. We was to ahve a zero problem foreign policy and did exaxtly the opposite.
There are rumors that is driven by emperor ideas (wants to re-institute the Ottoman empire) and is also mixed with mysticism groups.
Cleared out the Generals by putting them in prison (the Army council held equal position to the parlament and owns about 35% of Turkish industries, Renault factory included)
Corruption scandlas have beeing breaking out, seems he had a close circuit of corruption, his family included)
Former ally F. Gulen want's to play a role in the new elections, Erdogan is considering relaeasing the Generals to favor their support)
He blamed freigners for the riots in gezi square in the summer, no he blaims foreign intelligence services for messing with the Turkish economy.
The value of Turkish lira is rolling downhill, it is said that Turkey won't be able to service her dept.
He is pushing for hursher Islamic practices
He has been arrogant in his relations with the Europeans, going as far as claiming it is the Eu that hsould beg Turkey to join EU
.......

Actually i think the US ad Israel are tired of his demeanor and are pulling the rag under his feet.

Offline Greekman

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #5 on: February 03, 2014, 12:16:52 PM »
Ok cedar i have a good oen for you...

Since you follow the Kiev protests here where the Turkey situation come sin....

IF Ukraine breaks up, Turkey may ask for the Crimean penninsula
http://www.defence-point.gr/news/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Crimean_Khanate-Ottomans.gif

According to the Turo-Russain treaty of 1771 there is the clause that if the Crimean Penninsula seperates from Russia it should be returned to Turkey (since Crimea was part of the Ukraine when the latter left the USSr, the obigation is carried over)

(yeah right, like if Puttin will allow it)

Offline Polar Bear

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2014, 04:30:11 PM »
 :o

Wow.

Offline Canadian Prepper

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2014, 07:54:25 AM »
Thanks Greekman for the link!

I've met a retired Turkish general who spoke at a conference on the Arab Spring about a year and a half ago and definitely don't envy any country that neighbours modern day Turkey considering how things are going over there. Most of the general's peers were in jail when he gave his talk. It's worth highlighting however the fact that the general emphasized the polarized nature of Turkish politics, in which the Islamists currently have the upper hand.

I was also at another conference on the Arab Spring by the NATO Council of Canada where the Turkish Consul apparently left in protest after another panelist spoke about conflicting Greek/Turkish claims over Adriatic Sea oil deposits. The panelist argued that the Greeks would be able to pay of their debts with those deposits but are being prevented from doing so by the Turks who've vowed not to allow it. Apparently musing about NATO members going to war with each other can generate huge headaches for people organizing NATO Council events!

It sounds as if it will be wise for informed Americans to keep apprised of what's happening within the Turkish orbit.

Offline Greekman

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2014, 02:31:13 PM »
rightly so....
The Oil/gas story is as following

There is a region that it is disputed by both countries. The EEZ (exclusive economic zone) borders that is.
Now this region is right under Turkey but there are some Greek islands there (southwest of Rhodos).
So these islands are giving an extension to the Gree EEZ and practically cuting off Turkey from the east mediteranean basin.

(to be honest if this case goes to international court greece will probably loose since the court -in similar cases- has ruled against EEZ rights for distant islands right next to foreign coasts)
( I hope i did not lost you)

BUT
this is where geostrategics come into play.
IF greece gets this extra EEZ space, then its economic zone will be touching with the Cypriot one.
And a passage for the Cypriot/Israeli gas pipeline will be created, safe from the involvement of Turkey.
(BTW the gas is extracted by Noble energy, a medium sized US company)

Offline Greekman

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #9 on: March 17, 2014, 02:07:10 AM »
new post since if found this
http://bipartisanpolicy.org/library/report/turkey%E2%80%99s-local-elections-actors-factors-and-implications
in short Turkey is slipping into a conservative islamic mocarchy (Erdogan will be running for President with enhancd powers)

Despite the demonstrations in Taxim square and the way they were suppressed,
despite the daily leaked conversations of Prime Minister Erdogan that merkedly show corruption and a lot of money changign hands
despite that Turkey is about to ban Facebook and Youtube cos they corrupt the young

Offline Cedar

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #10 on: March 17, 2014, 09:31:50 AM »
I missed your last couple of posts before this Greekman..my appologies.

Cedar

Offline Greekman

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2014, 10:19:09 AM »
???? not needed....

That Facebook and Youtube ban i wnat to see it happen  :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

Offline TNVolunteer

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2014, 10:25:04 AM »
Good stuff in this thread. 

GreekMan, curious some more about some historical background on Greek - Turkish relations from your standpoint.  I have general knowledge that I haven't refreshed in some. 

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Offline Greekman

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2014, 12:04:27 PM »
that could be done, assuming there is a market for it.
there is already a terminal station in greece, near athens, since we get LNG from Algeria and Quatar.
Such a project would probably require a new terminal, probably at Alexandroupoli, in norh east Greece, a breath away from the Gr-turkish borders.
Funny thing is that there were plans to make a terminal there already, if the projec to carry Russian through Bourlgaria and greece would have gone ahead.

in fact there have been so many pipeline projects in our area that i have lost count.
All lacked the same thing. proper supply/volume to make the project economically feasible

Offline Greekman

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #15 on: March 18, 2014, 06:18:38 AM »
GreekMan, curious some more about some historical background on Greek - Turkish relations from your standpoint.  I have general knowledge that I haven't refreshed in some.

Sorry for taking my time with this…..

Historical Background.

Mainland Greece was occupied by the Turks in 1370. We successfully revolted in 1821 but it took all way to 1912 for the Northern Greece to become free.
In the meantime we survived becoming muslims but we had to pay the toll of slaughters, depositions, and the systematic abductions of the young boy to man select military parties.
(my town was burned and slaughtered twice)
As you may understand 500 years of fanatic muslim savagery cannot heal.

Modern day issues.

1.   In 1996 Turkey acted on its claims that certain rock islands of the Aegean were its territory, despite the treaties that define possession. The 2 island complex was Imia and people tied to the Turkish agencies landed, removed the Greek and raised the Tourkish flag. and we almost got to war until our beloved politicians sold us out by accepting a no man’s land agreement and directing the Seal team that reoccupied the island to retract by taking the new Greek flag with them* (if that ain't treason i do not know what it can be)
this map shows the anti-armor moat that is being built by the Greece http://www.tovima.gr/files/1/2011/08/03/xarths3.jpg
and this the placemetn of major units http://i625.photobucket.com/albums/tt340/Babel_2009/rderofBattleevros.gif

2.   Turkey is a prime mover of illegal alliens in Greece (entry point to EU) with the occasional implication of its armed forces too, often using covering fire. illegal aliens enter throu every inch of the borders, especially the sea ones

3.   On the land borders with turkey (Evros river at the north east) you can still see a cold ar like accumulation of forces and armor. About 2000 tanks on an 80 mile front.

4.   West from the borders, in the Evros and east Macedonia regions, there still recide a big number of Muslim residents. While many consider and call themselves turks, the truth is that some tribes are quite ancient going back before the Classic Ancient Greece. They were turned Muslim by force by the turks when they occupied the territory in the 1300s. But due to political oversights the local Turkish consulate is running amok and greatly influences and stirs cediments in the region. And while the muslims enjoy full civil liberties, wellfare benefits, Turkish schools and allowance of the Sharia muslim law, they still claim oppression by the Greek state.

5.   Cyprus. In 1974 Turkey invade and occupied Northern Cyprus. The matter is not resolved yet despite the UN decrees etc. ( Crimea is a copycut situation and this is where the west is proven lacking once more). Turkey has palced armed forces in the north worth of at least 300 tanks plus accompanying units etc.

6.   Greece-Turkeys Exclusive Economic Zone disputes and the prospect of oil, gas, and hydrite fields in the disputed region. The said region is at the south-eastern border. The dispute is whether the Greek islands
Energy plots aside, there are wider geostrategic implications. The aegena islands in the area give enough EEZ to Greece to effectively exclude Turkey, and much more link the Greek EEZ to the Cypriot one. That is of importance that the planed Israel-Cyprus-Gteece gas pipeline misses the Turkish area of influence, and since the second Iraqi war has proven an unreliable ally to the US AND Israel (remember the mavi marmara ship incident where the instigators proved to be members of the Turkish intelligence services and the Turkish far right nationalistic party of the greyWolves)
edit: here is a map of the region. The top scenarion is the greek favoring one, the lower the turks favoring one
http://i176.photobucket.com/albums/w192/greekpreparedness/72028371_zps0c9c9bfb.jpg~original

* for the people that study war history this is a prime application if the “for the lack of a nail…” paradigm. I will be happy to furnish the details another time.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2014, 06:42:52 AM by GreekMan »

Offline Greekman

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #16 on: March 20, 2014, 06:13:36 PM »
well Erdogan managed to get a court order to ban Twitter by the local internet providers.

It also seems Facebok is used to organized demonstration on the case.

Game starts again?

Offline TNVolunteer

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2014, 06:38:09 PM »
Perhaps so.  And thanks for the above btw.

Offline Cedar

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2014, 06:45:58 PM »
49 minutes ago:
Twitter is blocked in Turkey

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #19 on: March 21, 2014, 11:31:09 PM »
49 minutes ago:
Twitter is blocked in Turkey
Cedar

#BBCtrending: Protesters and politicians defy Turkey's Twitter block
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-26680929

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #20 on: March 23, 2014, 10:23:44 AM »
1 hour ago:
Turkish Armed Forces shot down a Syrian jet for breaching into Turkey airspace.

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #21 on: March 23, 2014, 03:27:29 PM »
1 hour ago:
Turkish Armed Forces shot down a Syrian jet for breaching into Turkey airspace.

They got it on camera.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89Hz8ChCRoM&feature=youtu.be

Cedar

Offline TNVolunteer

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #22 on: March 25, 2014, 04:32:48 PM »
Of course I cannot understand what is beings said, but it looks like it went down in a relatively populated area.

Offline Cedar

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« Last Edit: March 25, 2014, 06:28:53 PM by Cedar »

Offline Cedar

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #24 on: March 27, 2014, 09:01:37 AM »
Just now:
YouTube has just been blocked in Turkey. Turkish authorities shut down YouTube after leaked audio recording [in which top statesmen discuss possible Syria intervention].

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #25 on: March 27, 2014, 10:48:05 AM »
UN Human Rights office concerned over Turkey’s Twitter ban
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=47431&Cr=turkey&Cr1=

Cedar

Offline Greekman

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #26 on: March 28, 2014, 02:30:24 AM »
This may be the reason Youtube was banned....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxdJTZz5iks

This is a conversation of something like a secuirty council where an invasion at Syria is discussed.
The paln was to send 4 agent provocateurs in Syria to fire missile(rockets) into Turkey as a pretence to invade.
Cover reason would be to secure the region -in Syria- where Suleiman Sach is barried, which is the grandfather of the ottomani empire creator

Offline Cedar

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #27 on: March 28, 2014, 02:44:49 AM »
This may be the reason Youtube was banned....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxdJTZz5iks

This is a conversation of something like a secuirty council where an invasion at Syria is discussed.

That would be exactly why, according to the reasons I heard. Thanks for the find.

Cedar

Offline Greekman

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #28 on: March 29, 2014, 01:11:08 AM »
I couldn't cross check the following, so just keep it in mind for JIC

It seems the Hurds in south east Turkey are getting ready for a armed revolt that will bring them autonomy.
It is said that Turkey intelligence foudn out that the Kurds have established weapons caches and fortified strongholds in the cities in south eastern Turkey. And that they already have been testing the reaction of the military police outposts in the rural areas with probing attacks at 42 station the last 30 days.

if it checks out I will return

Offline Cedar

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Re: It's time to watch Turkey
« Reply #29 on: March 30, 2014, 08:17:09 AM »
Turkey postponed daylight savings for a day due to elections. Smart phones automatically adjust, so most Turks seeing the wrong time today.

Cedar