Gambling on the presidential stock market

[David in MN]

Well it turns out the gun stocks did a one day tumble. OK. The election caught Wall Street by surprise (like the rest of us) and the rebalance is happening. As it turns out the master level trade was shorting Grubhub (which I missed)...

http://www.siliconbeat.com/2016/11/11/grubhub-ceo-faces-backlash-anti-trump-message-employees/?yptr=yahoo

I guess my big picture is that we are possibly hitting a bear market. It's hard not to notice the pullback in well run businesses and the resulting massive yields. I'm once again finding 5% dividends and I'll sink my money into that all day long. Still there just has a "wait and see" feel trading these days.

[Carl]

Well it turns out the gun stocks did a one day tumble. OK. The election caught Wall Street by surprise (like the rest of us) and the rebalance is happening. As it turns out the master level trade was shorting Grubhub (which I missed)...

http://www.siliconbeat.com/2016/11/11/grubhub-ceo-faces-backlash-anti-trump-message-employees/?yptr=yahoo

I guess my big picture is that we are possibly hitting a bear market. It's hard not to notice the pullback in well run businesses and the resulting massive yields. I'm once again finding 5% dividends and I'll sink my money into that all day long. Still there just has a "wait and see" feel trading these days.

Remember...Change is not here but just on the horizon

[iam4liberty]

WotC has always been poorly run (I was a competitive Magic player some years back). They took a game recommended by Mensa and ran it into the ground. And they couldn't make Pokemon work in its height. Yuck.

Very cool.  I've been known to tap a land or two in pauper, modern, and legacy. 

The craziest thing is that the CEO of WotC who screwed up the card market is now a member of the federal reserve: http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/blog/techflash/2013/01/greg-leeds-named-to-board-of-federal.html?ana=twt. 

[David in MN]

Very cool.  I've been known to tap a land or two in pauper, modern, and legacy. 

The craziest thing is that the CEO of WotC who screwed up the card market is now a member of the federal reserve: http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/blog/techflash/2013/01/greg-leeds-named-to-board-of-federal.html?ana=twt.

I started between Legends and Dark and played off and on to Odyssey (yup I know that's long) and eventually wound up with a trunk full of cards that eventually got sold off as I hadn't touched them in years and turned into a S&W revolver and a stack of silver bullion.

If you played the game during that time and read message boards you might have read my stuff. I wrote about designing the ideal turbostasis and was a prolific black player who wrote that it was the most misunderstood color because black offered what nothing else could: temporal advantage. I played at the early Gen Con tournaments (from Milwaukee) and won several local tournaments. Once coming to MN for school I cleaned house as the local competition couldn't compete. Black taught me that in a fistfight the man willing to rip his own arm off and use it as a club to kill his opponent has won even though he is bleeding out. (Only [some] Magic players will get this).

If you're bored reading this, consider this... In middle school I played my principal in chess as I defeated all my teachers. He beat me but the games were fun. I captained the chess team and eventually had to quit in high school to run track and bodybuild. Time. But I will tell all of you that a child who learns checkers, chess, Magic, go, one who sees how the Lego pieces should fit together... These are the  introductions to strategy and design. Sierawan taught me that a knight in the third row is a knife on the jugular. Fischer taught me how to move bishops early.

If you played Magic, the first card I opened to was a "Demonic Tutor". That seems like an unfair advantage. Today I look for companies that hold that card. And I haven't played chess or Magic in years as the market has provided better income than ante ever did.

[David in MN]

OK, so maybe the Trump play is... gold? Follow my logic. I really do believe he's going to loosen up business laws. I actually believe that for the first time in over a decade (or two) a president will firmly be pro business. Not light a match. Light a barrel of kerosene. If you think I'm crazy note how the market tanked election night and immediately rebounded better than ever.

So if the economy really gets cooking, what will we see? MASSIVE INFLATION. If Trump is right about this (and I think he is) the problem is not liquidity but regulation. But we've been trying to fix it with low interest, easy money, and printing. If industry roars to life it will bid up resources and interest rates as competition strives to grow and all that free money on the sidelines suddenly burns like a Roman candle.

I'm looking to rebalance into mining stocks, timber, oil, oil, oil, oil, builders, gold, silver, platinum, Canadian nickel, Chinese aluminum, etc.

Lots of moving parts here and this is not, nor is anything I ever post financial advice. But right now I'm starting to see a bid up of commodities as the "Trump" play.

[Carl]

I find it interesting that the people who were excited when Trump said he did not know if he would accept losing the election,
Totally could not accept him winning.

[jerseyboy]

It's fire sale time! The candidate Wall Street sank millions in just got beat and I suspect everything will be discounted in the coming weeks as portfolios are rebalanced without the sweetheart deals that the bankers were promised.

Whenever possible I gamble on corruption. But corruption just got dealt a heavy blow. Look in the bargain bin.

Just look at Ruger (RGR) it gapped down $9 on the day after the election and continued to fall another $8 over the next two days. Right now it is still off $11 from the $64.40 close on November 8th.

Jerseyboy

[FreeLancer]

I really wish I'd taken wealth creation at Trump University.

[Carl]

Just look at Ruger (RGR) it gapped down $9 on the day after the election and continued to fall another $8 over the next two days. Right now it is still off $11 from the $64.40 close on November 8th.

Jerseyboy

This makes it a good time to BUY RGR.

[David in MN]

RGR is down because the market believes that disaffected voters this election won't buy rifles. I remember driving to 3 local gun shops (not the big box) in 2012 and inventory was empty. So I bought SWHC. I don't get the same vibe today. I feel like the gun companies could come in line with earnings and lower expectations as the future looks safe for firearms.

I really wish I'd taken wealth creation at Trump University.

Just snark? Or something you now about? If it offers a window into how Trump raises capital, finances, or selects projects it could be a massive window into the future. His attitude toward banking, in particular, would be interesting to know.

[Smurf Hunter]

This makes it a good time to BUY RGR.

For sure.  The Holiday season is just getting started.  Come end of Q4 there'll report huge sales, and the stock price will race upward.  Buy now while everyone else is worried.

[David in MN]

It will be interesting to see how the firearms industry in general responds to the election. I'm surely not surprising anyone around here by suggesting that some models (Mini 14) are specifically built to skirt regulation on the tight side. Other models (say a Sig AR pistol) skirt regulation on the fast and loose side.

With what looks to be a favorable court and legislature it feels like the go-ahead nod to start R&D on that belt fed assault shotgun or whatever crazy dream the engineers can come up with. I could well see an investment opportunity if these forums start filling up with comments about the "Ruger Dino Dropper" or the "S&W Lion Tamer".

While I don't see a lot of trade opportunity at RGR (still feel strong quarter with lowered projections) if you buy in on a dip you at least get the dividend at a bargain. Better than a sharp stick in the eye.

[jerseyboy]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/21/trumps-pro-second-amendment-platform-could-end-gun-sales-boom.html

Jerseyboy

[Smurf Hunter]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/21/trumps-pro-second-amendment-platform-could-end-gun-sales-boom.html

Jerseyboy

This is still America.  Maybe the "boom" will end, but it's not like Johnny and Bubba suddenly don't want new shotguns for Christmas.

[TheRetiredRancher]

After making a mistake at the beginning and buying gold stocks the morning after the election (Ouch)  I am now going into construction equipment and looking for suitable highway, bridge, airport and ocean port construction contractors.  Deere and Cat were obvious choices to chase Trump's infrastructure construction plans for almost any heavy construction.  I am not sure about the construction companies as many of them specialize in one or two types of projects.  Granite construction (GVA) does a lot of heavy highway work or maybe a cement and aggregate company like Vulcan materials (VMC) might be a better bet as they sell to almost any construction type.  I am still searching for the right opportunity.

[jerseyboy]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/22/trumps-tax-infrastructure-promises-face-pushback-from-gop-lawmakers.html

Jerseyboy

[David in MN]

Lots going on here. The gun stocks took it in the shorts. Apparently Trump hates the aerospace sector, chiding both Boeing for the cost of a new fleet of Air Force One and Lockheed for is continued debacles on the F-35. The bright spot? Exxon Mobile.

I don't want to sound conspiratorial but any trader who knew in advance Trump's pick of Rex Tillerson or his plan to tweet about aerospace concerns was standing to retire after a week of work.

I figured there would be some shakeup in the market but this is very unusual. Most presidents are a little more guarded with their thoughts about companies.

Still working on a play here. I have a wargaming session with some friends later.

[Smurf Hunter]

Lots going on here. The gun stocks took it in the shorts. Apparently Trump hates the aerospace sector, chiding both Boeing for the cost of a new fleet of Air Force One and Lockheed for is continued debacles on the F-35. The bright spot? Exxon Mobile.

I don't want to sound conspiratorial but any trader who knew in advance Trump's pick of Rex Tillerson or his plan to tweet about aerospace concerns was standing to retire after a week of work.

I figured there would be some shakeup in the market but this is very unusual. Most presidents are a little more guarded with their thoughts about companies.

Still working on a play here. I have a wargaming session with some friends later.

But maybe "The Donald"  will make a "tremendous" deal with the Iranians and Boeing will sell them a gazillion dollars worth of aircraft.  If you knew THAT was coming, heck of a time to accumulate.

[CPT Morgan]

But maybe "The Donald"  will make a "tremendous" deal with the Iranians and Boeing will sell them a gazillion dollars worth of aircraft.  If you knew THAT was coming, heck of a time to accumulate.

This from a guy that works for Boeing?  LOL

[David in MN]

This from a guy that works for Boeing?  LOL

Just to be clear, I'm the one with an aerospace engineering degree. But I've never been in the industry. Life went elsewhere...

[Smurf Hunter]

This from a guy that works for Boeing?  LOL

I do live nearby, and know several employees, but I don't work there myself.

[CPT Morgan]

Was just kidding guys.

[Carl]

I think that if I wanted to gamble for big returns,I would get some stock in the medical research field.

[Smurf Hunter]

I think that if I wanted to gamble for big returns,I would get some stock in the medical research field.

The internet age has been a massive boost for medical research.  They can model and analyze data in ways that were impossible just 25 years ago.

[David in MN]

Was just kidding guys.

We know, just having fun. It's all good.

I think that if I wanted to gamble for big returns,I would get some stock in the medical research field.

I used to do a lot of biomed investing because you are essentially wagering on FDA approval and adoption. I don't think we're that far off from really good cost effective artificial hearts, lungs, and kidneys, with a stretch goal of livers, pancreases, and intestines. To the engineers these are pumps, valves, and filters. The enzyme producing organs are tougher but synthesis will happen. It's a really wild area to play in but it gives me great hope for humanity going forward. My daughter may view heart disease the way I view TB. Killed a lot of people in the past but we fixed it.

[Smurf Hunter]

I don't think we're that far off from really good cost effective artificial hearts, lungs, and kidneys, with a stretch goal of livers, pancreases, and intestines. To the engineers these are pumps, valves, and filters. The enzyme producing organs are tougher but synthesis will happen. It's a really wild area to play in but it gives me great hope for humanity going forward. My daughter may view heart disease the way I view TB. Killed a lot of people in the past but we fixed it.

As a parent of a child with a misbehaving pancreas (no insulin production) I've read up on this field a bit.  Something that is still an obstacle following transplants are the immunosuppressive drugs that usually require daily dosage for life to prevent rejection of the new organ.  In the context of a heart transplant, popping a pill twice daily seems a fine exchange for dying of heart failure.

Though with insulin dependent diabetes, while they are experimenting with transplanting islet cells (the stuff in the pancreas that makes insulin), assuming the transplant worked, the patient would be on some kind of immunosuppressive drug for life.  Many of those have side effects or possibly don't even work in all cases.   So trading insulin dependence for immunosuppressive drug dependence is not yet a great trade.

It's a bit like getting a great deal on a new car that's extremely expensive to own and insure.  Few people read far enough ahead to understand all the consequences.

[iam4liberty]

FYI.  If anyone bought Dave & Busters (PLAY) based on the above discussion, you should check the price.  It just hockey sticked so it might be the time to take some profit. It moved from about $32 earlier this year to about $56 today. Here is the story on why it popped: http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/12/07/restaurant-slump-dont-tell-that-to-dave-busters-en.aspx

[David in MN]

I'm seriously considering going heavily into Amazon (AMZN) on its recent pullback.

I can't be the only person unwilling to go to a mall or downtown for fear of stumbling on a violent riot peaceful protest. Black Lives Matter has blocked malls here before and the anti-Trump/pro-Trump/anti-anti-Trump/anti-pro-Trump nonsense is heating up as well.

I might want to go shopping but it gets tough when malls, freeways, streets, and parking lots are blocked by peaceful protestors. Especially when they peacefully throw rocks, light fireworks, and empty an AR into a nearby mosque. I drove by our local mosque yesterday and did a quick look around for skinheads.

Paranoid, I know. But last week for the first time I ordered clothes off Amazon rather than drive to the outlet mall. I likely paid a few bucks more and didn't stumble on the all too common serendipitous "must-have". But I avoided a public place which is high on my list right now.

I'm going to mull this over this morning. But I doubt I'm alone in not wanting to leave the house. Maybe it's timeto buy AMZN...

[Carl]

  As I am not able to just go to a store,I find AMAZON to be a good way to provide almost all of my needs...even the prime pantry where I can,and do,order groceries and get retail or below prices with a flat rate (under $6) shipping along with an order that is in by 10AM is delivered the NEXT DAY without the next day cost as I must be close to a major warehouse for AMAZON. I have over 400 separate orders in a year and get FREE SHIPPING as a PRIME MEMBER . The prime membership does cost about $100 ,but has been well worth it for my situation.