Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)

[Cedar]

"There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early spring 2016," the NOAA said in a statement.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/13/weather/el-nino-2015/index.html

Cedar

[Cedar]

Oregon one year ago


Oregon today, one year later


Cedar

[Cedar]

Crop reports are starting to come in
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

Cedar

[Cedar]

US drought Map


Cedar

[Cedar]

The worst flooding across the U.S. Midwest in four years is disrupting everything from oil to agriculture, forcing pipelines, terminals and grain elevators to close and killing off thousands of pigs. Hog producers in southern Illinois are calling other farmers, hoping to find extra barn space to relocate their pigs, said Jennifer Tirey, executive director of the Illinois Pork Producers Association. Processors are sending additional trucks out to retrieve market-ready pigs, she said. In one case, an overflowing creek took out electricity and made roads impassable, causing 2,000 pigs to drown.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-30/floods-shutting-midwest-oil-pipeline-seen-worsening-record-glut


Texas Blizzard Impact Will Bring Total to 40,000 Lost Southwest Dairy Cattle. Four days after what is possibly the worst storm on record for cattle in the area, operations are returning to normal. The storm rolled into the Clovis, N.M., and Lubbock, Texas, region Saturday evening and was gone by Monday morning. But the 22” inches of snow paired with wind gusts, some reaching over 60 miles per hour, was too much for many cattle, and proved impossible for some dairies to continue operating at the time. The uncharacteristic weather was to the extreme for the High Plains region
http://www.agweb.com/article/texas-blizzard-impact-will-bring-total-to-40000-lost-southwest-dairy-cattle-naa-dairy-herd-management/


Between the weather reports from Brazil and the trade policy changes in Argentina, many are wondering how to handicap the South American corn and soybean crops this year—and its effects on U.S. prices.
http://www.agweb.com/article/clock-is-ticking-on-south-american-crop-naa-alison-rice/


There have been many questions concerning winter wheat and cover crops that have been subjected to the adverse effects of flooding.  With the unprecedented rainfall in the last two months across Missouri many winter wheat and cover crop fields have been flooded or saturated for varying periods in portions of the state. The impact that flooding, waterlogging and potential ice sheeting may have on the winter crops could be significant.
http://agfax.com/2015/12/30/missouri-unprecedented-rain-flood-impacts-wheat-cover-crops/
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-crops-wheat-idUSKBN0UC0ON20151229

Cedar

[Cedar]

According to the USDA winter wheat acreage is down almost 2.8 million acres from last year to 36.6 million acres. This represents a 7% decline from last year, a 14% decline since 2014 and the lowest winter wheat acreage since 2010. This potentially sets the US up for the lowest winter wheat crop since 2002.

Given USDA’s initial projection for winter wheat, and assuming that history is an indication, the market should prepare for overall 2016 wheat area to be down quite significantly in the United States.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-wheat-braun-idUSKCN0US2DH20160114

Cedar

[Cedar]

The USDA dropped the "Grass Fed" label on beef about the same time that the cattle markets started crashing at the end of 2015. R-CALF USA has sent a formal request to the U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary to investigate the collapse in the cattle market. Concerns for the group are that antitrust and anticompetitive conduct may have occurred in the U.S. beef and cattle markets during 2015. Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley says if the accusations are credible the committee would have a responsibility to look into the matter.
http://www.agweb.com/article/cattle-markets-crashed-r-calf-wants-answers-naa-wyatt-bechtel/

Cedar

[Cedar]

World Agriculture Weather Highlights January 12, 2016
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Monthly/current.pdf

Cedar

[Cedar]

Canadian restaurants and grocery stores warn customers of high food prices. Owners say customers are struggling with the high price of fruits and vegetables.     As prices for commodities have dropped, the value of the Canadian dollar has fallen, a direct link to an economy that is dependent on oil and other resources. It makes imports, like fresh American vegetables during the dark Canadian winter, look especially costly. Two years ago, one Canadian dollar was worth 93 American cents. On Wednesday, it stood at 69 American cents. Canada imports 80 percent of its produce – much of it comes from California where the prolonged drought has caused prices to rise in terms of American dollars.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-restaurants-grocery-stores-food-prices-1.3416694
http://www.naturalnews.com/052749_food_inflation_consumer_goods_prices_Rising.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-13/canadians-panic-food-prices-soar-collapsing-currency

Cedar

[Cedar]

US Food Price Outlook, 2016

- Looking ahead to 2016, ERS predicts food-at-home (supermarket) prices to rise 2.0 to 3.0 percent

http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings.aspx

Cedar

[Cedar]

The University of Guelph Food Institute predicted last month that the average Canadian household will spend $345 more on food in 2016 than last year, and many have already pointed out the higher prices.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/forum-food-prices-1.3426477

Canadian food banks hope that the pinch they're feeling from rising food prices isn't snowballing into a full-fledged crisis.
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/01/31/canadian-food-banks-fear-perfect-storm-from-rising-fresh-food-prices_n_9125282.html

Cedar

[Cedar]

A nationwide food shortage is threatening your dinner table and your bank account, and it's about to get worse, as it gets harder for local restaurants and stores to feed their customers' needs.
http://www.wdrb.com/story/30881799/nationwide-food-shortage-hitting-local-shoppers-in-the-wallet

Freezing in Mexico and Arizona
http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Mexicos-North-Hit-by-Freezing-Weather-20151228-0004.html
http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix/2016/01/13/cold-weather-takes-toll-phoenix-area-gardens/78737452/

Canadian Wheat Stocks Historically Tight. Year-ending stocks of wheat in Canada plunged nearly 20% below 2014 levels, according to Statistics Canada’s Stocks of Principal Field Grains report, released Thursday. 02/04/2016



Cedar

[CharlesH]

It would be interesting to see how the price of frozen and canned vegetables is moving compared to fresh.  It seems like there would be more volatility in the fresh produce section of the market while prices shift more slowly in the other aisles.  Kind of like looking at a moving average in the stock market, could canned and frozen food prices give us clearer look at prices by removing some of the short term volatility caused by weather?

[Cedar]

And on top of everything else.. Xylella fastidiosa. Xylella fastidiosa is one of the most dangerous plant bacteria worldwide, causing a variety of diseases, with huge economic impact for agriculture. It’s also issued an emergency quarantine for the nine counties in Oregon where the pear tree scions were shipped: Benton, Hood River, Jackson, Lane, Linn, Marion, Multnomah, Washington and Yamhill. Violating the quarantine is punishable by fines of up to $10,000.

Although the bacteria has so far been associated with pear trees in Oregon, the quarantine prohibits shipments of any host plant material, including oak, maple, blackberry, caneberry, blueberry and stone fruit,

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/14/uk-alert-phony-peach-disease
http://ec.europa.eu/food/plant/plant_health_biosecurity/legislation/emergency_measures/xylella-fastidiosa/index_en.htm
http://www.capitalpress.com/Oregon/20151209/bacteria-discovery-prompts-oregon-quarantine

It effects olives in Europe, coffee and way more stuff we might get worried about.

Cedar

[Cedar]

Texas starting to get dry


Cedar

[Cedar]

1,225 Dairy Farmers Call It Quits in 2015 Wisconsin dipped below 10,290 farms this past year to 9,900. That’s a drop of 390 farms.

Scroll to page 18
http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/mkpr0216.pdf

Cedar

[Cedar]

World Ag Weather
http://www.worldagweather.com/crops.php#summary

Cedar

[Cedar]

Olive oil prices spiked 20% in 2015, after drought and disease devastated a big part of Europe's olive crop, and industry experts are forecasting a similar increase this year. Spain, which produces about 40% of the world's olive oil, experienced an unusually hot and dry summer in 2014. That led to the worst harvest in nearly 20 years, farmers say.  Millions of olive trees in Italy, which produces 20% of the world's olive oil, have been attacked by a deadly disease.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/09/news/olive-oil-shortage-price/index.html

Cedar

[d3nni5]

Olive oil prices spiked 20% in 2015, after drought and disease devastated a big part of Europe's olive crop, and industry experts are forecasting a similar increase this year. Spain, which produces about 40% of the world's olive oil, experienced an unusually hot and dry summer in 2014. That led to the worst harvest in nearly 20 years, farmers say.  Millions of olive trees in Italy, which produces 20% of the world's olive oil, have been attacked by a deadly disease.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/09/news/olive-oil-shortage-price/index.html

Cedar

That sucks, one of my favorite things to cook with. 

[mountainmoma]

Olive oil prices spiked 20% in 2015, after drought and disease devastated a big part of Europe's olive crop, and industry experts are forecasting a similar increase this year. Spain, which produces about 40% of the world's olive oil, experienced an unusually hot and dry summer in 2014. That led to the worst harvest in nearly 20 years, farmers say.  Millions of olive trees in Italy, which produces 20% of the world's olive oil, have been attacked by a deadly disease.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/09/news/olive-oil-shortage-price/index.html

Cedar

I had noticed the price spike, and so have less in the pantry -- sounds like I should go ahead and keep a few back-ups as it is going to get worse !

[Cedar]

Maple syrup-makers say warm winter may hurt production
http://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/us/article/Maple-syrup-makers-say-warm-winter-may-hurt-6880208.php

Cedar

[Cedar]

Hungry Venezuelans cry at the sight of food, as economic crisis deepens. Tearful Venezuelans had gone weeks without basic food items like milk, flour and toilet paper. It's a sad but common part of daily life today in crisis-ridden Venezuela, a country that has the world's largest proven reserves of oil. Colombian officials estimate that about 100,000 Venezuelans crossed the border.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/20/news/economy/venezuela-world-worst-economy/index.html

Cedar

[Stwood]

1,225 Dairy Farmers Call It Quits in 2015 Wisconsin dipped below 10,290 farms this past year to 9,900. That’s a drop of 390 farms.

Scroll to page 18
http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/mkpr0216.pdf

Cedar

So what's happening there? Little guy not making ends meet, going bankrupt, then the big co's buying them up?
That's what's happening in MO with the ranchers. The big Texas ranchers are coming in and buying the big established ranches here (2-3-4 thousand acres) .

[Cedar]

So what's happening there? Little guy not making ends meet, going bankrupt, then the big co's buying them up?
That's what's happening in MO with the ranchers. The big Texas ranchers are coming in and buying the big established ranches here (2-3-4 thousand acres) .

Although this article is from the UK, it pretty much speaks for here
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/27/we-simply-want-to-be-able-to-afford-to-keep-going-uk-farmers-on-their-industry

Cedar

[Stwood]

I finally got around to reading that article. Thanks Cedar

[Cedar]

Not too bad compared to last year I think... even since February



and...


Cedar

[Cedar]

Drought Hurts California Rice Harvest, California, the nation's second largest rice-growing state after Arkansas, usually produces more than five million pounds of rice and sells about half of it abroad, to over 100 countries.
http://www.agweb.com/article/drought-hurts-california-rice-harvest-associated-press/

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, production of oranges are down 9 percent, avocados down 13 percent, garlic down 6 percent, romaine lettuce 15 percent, and olives 29 percent in 2014
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2016/06/22/the_california_drought_s_lessons_for_food_security.html

Cedar

[Cedar]

Woo Hoo!!! With this big storm that California just had, the powers that be, say that 42% of the state is no longer in a drought. Bad news.. is that 58% still is.



Farm Commodities report <-- I like this new format
https://www.usfoods.com/content/dam/usf/pdf/farmers_report/FarmersReport.pdf


Cedar

[Cedar]

Analysts expect an even greater global wheat glut in 2017 to drive down prices and whittle away at acreage. Pushing down prices are three consecutive years of  world wheat production and carryout. USDA estimates a third record global wheat harvest of 751.26 MMT in 2016-17, which will send carryover to a record 252.14 MMT.
http://www.agweb.com/article/2017-outlook-global-glut-pushes-down-wheat-prices-naa-debra-beachy/

https://www.worldwheatproduction.com/

Cedar

[Stwood]

Well it's good to be able to store it, if they will.