The Survival Podcast Forum

Finance and Economics => The Money Board => Investing and Saving => Topic started by: David in MN on March 02, 2016, 11:56:17 AM

Title: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: David in MN on March 02, 2016, 11:56:17 AM
OK... So I made buckets in the past by guessing the winners and losers and investing accordingly. Sometimes the administration is too close to a particular company like the Bushies and Halliburton (HAL) and sometimes it's the exact opposite like Smith & Wesson (SWHC) cleaning up under Obama ban fears. You have to game both sides. And I have.

So it looks like a Hillary/Donald fight (barring a surprise). Where do we go to make mad stacks of cash?

Hillary is pretty easy. If Obama gets us to buy guns, Hillary gets us to sharpen our toothbrush because the guns are gone. I mean the day she's elected gun stores will empty so S&W (SWHC) and Ruger (RGR) are solid bets. I'm also willing to wager Goldman Sachs (GS) does pretty well after giving Hillary about $750,000 and rapidly promoting her son-in-law. Big, corrupt banks (in general) do well with the Clintons. Beyond that I run aground a little. Tempting to short any company with massive union exposure like auto companies and go long any company with "landed aristocracy" benefits like UnitedHealth Group (UNH). Just where my gut is tugging me.

Trump is harder. Maybe we could go in on wall building specialists and concrete concerns. But I wouldn't know how to game it. Maybe play his real estate side and load up on REITs. My instinct is to go with his jingoistic side and invest heavily in American manufacturing assuming tariffs are coming. Lord knows US Steel (X) could use the bump. But it might just be rhetoric. In truth I'm not sure how to play him.

I'm curious if I'm the only TSPer who plays this game. I'd love to get some insight from others. If you've never used stock market politics, consider it.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: DWSDVSE on March 02, 2016, 01:35:51 PM
It's funny, I was thinking about this today while reading a white paper from Oppenheimer Funds that they sent us. https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/investors/doc/Election_2016_in_Perspective_Illustrative_Paper.pdf?dig_asset_metrics=done (https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/investors/doc/Election_2016_in_Perspective_Illustrative_Paper.pdf?dig_asset_metrics=done) They say that it doesn't matter who wins, the stock market wins.  :excited:

Who knew that a large fund company wanted to play politically neutral?

Now, for some real thinking on the topic from Tyler Cowen at http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/03/the-presidency-and-the-regulatory-state.html (http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/03/the-presidency-and-the-regulatory-state.html)

Quote
The regulatory state and the importance of a non-vindictive President

by Tyler Cowen on March 1, 2016 at 12:14 am in Books, Current Affairs, Law, Political Science, Uncategorized | Permalink


I hope we always will have non-vindictive Presidents in this country.  One reason is because the regulatory branch reports to the Executive.  And if you own a large company, it is virtually impossible to be in accordance with all of the regulations all of the time.  If there were a President who wished to pursue vendettas, the regulatory state would be the most direct and simplest way for him or her to do so.  The usual presumption of “innocent until proven guilty” does not hold in many regulatory matters, nor are there always the usual protections of due process.

I do know that Philip Hamburger’s book Is Administrative Law Unlawful? occasioned some critical reviews.  I certainly don’t think the title frames the argument properly and by no means do I agree with everything he said.  But these days, the notion that the regulatory state could prove dangerous to individual liberties, and not just to economic growth, needs to be taken more seriously, and he has written the “go to” book on that topic.

I wonder if this is one reason why some of the leaders in the Republican Party have been somewhat reluctant to challenge Donald Trump.  Perhaps they fear regulatory reprisal.

I also believe that many of Trump’s strongest critics — often Democrats — are ill-suited to understand or admit this side of the problem.  They have plenty of good arguments against Trump, but I haven’t heard this one yet.

It's a line I haven't thought of before. Tyler’s statement is an interesting thought given both the Oppenheimer report and your idea of profiting off of stocks that win/lose from the president. One could also rig up options strategies with the mix that wins no matter who wins.

Trump’s an outlier, markets move on outlier events. The problem is if we knew which way they’d move, then the outlier wouldn’t really be an outlier.

Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: bigbear on March 02, 2016, 02:21:30 PM
Trump is a tough one because neither side of the aisle may play well...  It will make for interesting bedfellows and Sun Tzu 'enemy of my enemy' politics.

Trump has supported the idea of auditing the Fed.  The recent Senate vote on an audit was 53-44.  That would send a tremor through the house of cards.  From that point, all bets are off.  All ships rise and fall with the tide.  VIX or short financials. 

As for building walls - Caterpillar pays a decent div as you wait it out...  Currently trading in the middle of the 52 week range.

Corporate tax structure will probably change - less moving money offshore.

The idea of protectionist tariffs would sit well with his frustrated 'middle class' base.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: David in MN on March 02, 2016, 03:14:32 PM
It's funny, I was thinking about this today while reading a white paper from Oppenheimer Funds that they sent us. https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/investors/doc/Election_2016_in_Perspective_Illustrative_Paper.pdf?dig_asset_metrics=done (https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/investors/doc/Election_2016_in_Perspective_Illustrative_Paper.pdf?dig_asset_metrics=done) They say that it doesn't matter who wins, the stock market wins.  :excited:

Who knew that a large fund company wanted to play politically neutral?

Now, for some real thinking on the topic from Tyler Cowen at http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/03/the-presidency-and-the-regulatory-state.html (http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/03/the-presidency-and-the-regulatory-state.html)

It's a line I haven't thought of before. Tyler’s statement is an interesting thought given both the Oppenheimer report and your idea of profiting off of stocks that win/lose from the president. One could also rig up options strategies with the mix that wins no matter who wins.

Trump’s an outlier, markets move on outlier events. The problem is if we knew which way they’d move, then the outlier wouldn’t really be an outlier.

Big Cowen fan. His work in predictive markets has directly had an effect on my stock trading design. Better than (yawn) Oppenheimer who say that the market is good o matter what. Honestly I don't know why the DJIA, NYSE, NASDAQ, FTSE, CBOT, etc. really matter in a time when pinpointed individual stocks rule the day. The era of "a rising tide lifting all boats" is dead and gone.

It's a hard game. You need to know that a politician will try to use the office and correctly guess the market response. You have to know that Obama will shut down a guitar manufacturer for "illegal" wood, for example. These are so hard to game (why I favor Cowen's view).


As for building walls - Caterpillar pays a decent div as you wait it out...  Currently trading in the middle of the 52 week range.

Corporate tax structure will probably change - less moving money offshore.

The idea of protectionist tariffs would sit well with his frustrated 'middle class' base.


Caterpillar (CAT) has had some issues of late in the secondary market where used machines are going at or below scrap steel costs. I'm gunshy there. I hadn't thought about a shift in tax policy. I'll let the wheels turn on that one for a while. Couldn't agree more about Trump and tariffs. That's the play I really think is coming.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: TheRetiredRancher on March 02, 2016, 06:21:24 PM
I think Trump will be good for smaller USA only companies because his protectionism will hurt multinationals. I am thinking about who that might be though.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: DWSDVSE on March 04, 2016, 10:17:20 AM
EPJ had an article on this topic yesterday: http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2016/03/what-stocks-should-you-buy-if-trump-is.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+economicpolicyjournal%2FKpwH+%28EconomicPolicyJournal.com%29 (http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2016/03/what-stocks-should-you-buy-if-trump-is.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+economicpolicyjournal%2FKpwH+%28EconomicPolicyJournal.com%29)

Quote
What Stocks Should You Buy If Trump is Elected President?
Jeffrey Gundlach, the co-founder and CEO of bond investing and trading powerhouse DoubleLine Capital, said that Trump has a history of being ”comfortable with a lot of debt and leverage,” and that won’t impede him from spending heavily, reports Reuters. He said he believes Trump’s pledge to spend heavily on the military makes defense stocks a good investment play.

This scenario would, by the way, also mean more price inflation and much higher interest rates, which means you should also buy gold and short the bond market---2 things that make sense to do now anyway.

-RW
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: David in MN on October 28, 2016, 05:50:46 AM
Well it's the actionable time for this thread and I'd feel like an ass if I didn't follow up.

Clinton is up in the polls anywhere from 1% to 14% (which should tell you a lot about polling) but from a Electoral College position seems like a likely winner.

As much as I hate to contradict myself I'm going to admit that I'm sitting out. Earnings haven't been good this season with a lot of bellweather stocks and unless you like Amazon (AMZN), Verizon (VZ), and Disney (DIS) on their dips (which I admit are tempting and have been buying into) there's just not a lot of good news out there. If Smith and Wesson (SWHC) drops appreciably in a single day I'll likely buy in as a gamble but that's that.

Bottom line: I'm cash. Really says something to be fishing in companies that missed guidance and South American mining. It sure feels like a bear market and electing a crook (either way) doesn't buoy confidence. The election looks to me lie another excuse for a dip as both candidates carry "bad for business".
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Beetlebum on October 28, 2016, 09:05:31 AM
As much as I hate to contradict myself I'm going to admit that I'm sitting out.

Do you ever use a momentum strategy? Thought being, you keep the stocks you previously mentioned on a watchlist and if they do take off up or down, you can still catch a piece of it.

If your time span is short (based on a collection of you posts, I'm guessing you're pretty short term), that's probably not an option.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Smurf Hunter on October 28, 2016, 09:32:38 AM
I've owned CAT on and off again over the years.  Way back (2002?)  a family of a local girl was killed by a CAT made bulldozer while protesting in Palestine.  I accumulated a bunch, after bad PR pushed down the price.  Then it doubled, split and I eventually sold it.  Too bad I only had $2000 to invest at the time...

That's not just a random anecdote, but taught me a lesson about going against the tide.  Sure, there are obvious turds that every moron can see, but when there are fears based on perception and not fact - that is your opportunity.

I'm still bullish on RGR, and for whatever reason have never liked SWHC as a stock.  RGR price seems to track gun enthusiasm tighter than SWHC.
I bought some RGR shares a few months back and it's already up 6%.  I figure I'll hold until after "Black Friday"  when the NICS system set another record for gun sales in a single day.

Another related issue is interest rates.  I have a large (for me) investment in a REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) AGNC.  It pays a fat 12% annual dividend, but it's trading about 13% below what I paid.  However I've held it long enough that the dividends have made up for the equity loss.  I'm gradually selling this off on up days, because REITs will DROP in price when the FED RAISES rates.   We all know rates can't get lower.  All the smart people are saying there's no chance the FED will make a move before the election, so I'll liquidating as fast and I can while the getting is good.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: David in MN on October 28, 2016, 10:45:32 AM
Do you ever use a momentum strategy? Thought being, you keep the stocks you previously mentioned on a watchlist and if they do take off up or down, you can still catch a piece of it.

If your time span is short (based on a collection of you posts, I'm guessing you're pretty short term), that's probably not an option.

No, I don't generally do this.

I follow a two pronged approach. The first is a boring Ben Graham-esque value that utilizes an asset allocation model. This side of my portfolio is pretty stable. I generally try to buy solid companies that have been beat up for no good reason and offer a good or growing dividend.

On the other side, I play with what I call "disruptive events". You're looking to find things that really bump the needle. This is where I am hunting for companies that will do things like spinoffs, M&A activity, obtain FDA permission on experimental products, lawsuits, etc. I also look for opportunity in higher volatility areas (mining, biotech) where you tend to see bigger bumps.

Right now there's plenty of unstable stuff going on. The things that pique my interest (beside the election) are what the looming Franco-Prussian alliance will mean for French aerospace concerns (in order to balance out the selection of German rifles), the Yum (YUM) spinoff in China, the increased demand of rare elements for tech, oil (always), junk bond prices, the lack of leadership at Apple, GE completely restructuring its business, the battle between Walmart and Amazon, Chipotle's disasters, etc.

Back to the election. If you (like me) think Hillary is going to be our next president, plan accordingly. I find her to be twice the gun salesman Obama is (saying something) and her leaked emails solidify her stance with our banking cartels. Maybe you want to load up on defense stocks for the coming war with Russia. Maybe you want to invest heavier in Saudi oil as she continues to make war with their competitors and take their donations. Certainly not the time to invest in marijuana growers. Maybe not the time to buy mainstream news agencies. Maybe you want to peruse the donor list of the Clinton Foundation.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Beetlebum on October 28, 2016, 10:55:45 AM
...

Thanks for sharing
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Carl on October 28, 2016, 03:03:53 PM
I am so lucky that I have barely enough money to live on and so have no worries about investments ,stocks etc.
A man with nothing,has nothing to lose.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: CandyGram4Mongo on October 28, 2016, 05:01:59 PM
Had this conversation w/someone who's opinion I respect immensely.  Significant concerns included avoiding anything that Hillary would be tempted to nationalize (health insurance companies, *US* pharmaceuticals, banks).
Beer in the dip.   Utilities (Duke Energy, ED) in the dip.
If Trump's elected, military suppliers.
Gun stocks now.

Otherwise, money under the mattress and food in the pantry.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Carl on October 28, 2016, 06:12:03 PM
My fan cleaning shop will finally show a profit.... :)
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: iam4liberty on October 29, 2016, 12:46:29 PM
I follow a two pronged approach. The first is a boring Ben Graham-esque value that utilizes an asset allocation model. This side of my portfolio is pretty stable. I generally try to buy solid companies that have been beat up for no good reason and offer a good or growing dividend.

On the other side, I play with what I call "disruptive events". You're looking to find things that really bump the needle. This is where I am hunting for companies that will do things like spinoffs, M&A activity, obtain FDA permission on experimental products, lawsuits, etc. I also look for opportunity in higher volatility areas (mining, biotech) where you tend to see bigger bumps.

Funny, I do the same general idea but with Harry Browne's permanent portfolio for the core and primarily sector investment for the speculation.  This is my current main body with approximate YTD returns (I didn't sum up the dividends yet so it is a bit higher).

Permanent Portfolio (Overall +8.3%)

Gold:    SGOL                   +19.8%  @ 25% of PP
Cash:   VFISX                  +0.9%    @ 25% of PP
Equity: VTSAX                 +4.3%    @ 22.5% of PP
            VGTSX                 +2.8%    @ 2.5% of PP
Bond: US Trea. Coupon   +8.5%   @ 25% of PP

So if trends continue this will turn out to be a pretty typical +10% year for the PP.

In speculations I added the following this year:

Robotics      ROBO +13.8% (We've covered this topic in previous threads...any raise in minimum wage is going to shoot this up)
Platinum:     PPLT   +8.1%  (added mid-year...ratio vs. gold is crazy and will be very susceptible to spikes with increase in fuel prices and strikes)
Gen X:         PLAY   +20.1%  (Generation X has become the primary holders of wealth and they are recollecting items from childhood)
Cyber Sec:  HACK  +1.9% (This isn't going away any time soon)

If Cllinton wins the presidency ROBO, PPLT, and HACK may have good rises.  She will try to do something with minimum wages which will just shoot automation forward.  Without a doubt she will push for higher energy costs which will drive precious metals mining costs very high.  And with all the email hacks releasing information on her self dealing  is there any doubt she is going to pour tons of money into cyber security companies? 

I also think the Gen X trends will continue as people will want to escape from the real world under either Clinton or Trump.  We have seen Disney nearly triple in price driven by Marvel Comics and Star Wars.  But there are still a lot of other iconic brands which are just now getting promoted.   If HASBRO does another short term dip that might be a good pickup.  Brands like Dungeons and Dragons and Magic the Gathering are showing signs of life.  The only reason they haven't shot up dramatically is the management at Wizards of the Coast is dreadful, alienating their core targets via a bunch of social justice nonsense.  I just fear that WoTC will do the same thing Sony did with Ghostbusters and just decimate the franchise.  It looks like they lost about $100 million on the failed reboot.

Right now I am trying to find good (i.e. pure play) ways to invest in AI and voice interaction.  Again, these will have big boosts with minimum wage hikes.  Anyone have suggestions?
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: David in MN on October 30, 2016, 08:01:42 AM
Funny, I do the same general idea but with Harry Browne's permanent portfolio for the core and primarily sector investment for the speculation.  This is my current main body with approximate YTD returns (I didn't sum up the dividends yet so it is a bit higher).

It's funny how many people advise something like 75% conservative and 25% high risk. I don't know if Browne was the absolute first but he explained it best. I wish that he were around today to give his insight on what is (in my opinion) an off the rails wrong bond market. Somehow they've made bonds more risky with lower yields and his insight would be nice to hear regarding rebalancing. But it still seems like a working model.

In speculations I added the following this year:

Robotics      ROBO +13.8% (We've covered this topic in previous threads...any raise in minimum wage is going to shoot this up)
Platinum:     PPLT   +8.1%  (added mid-year...ratio vs. gold is crazy and will be very susceptible to spikes with increase in fuel prices and strikes)
Gen X:         PLAY   +20.1%  (Generation X has become the primary holders of wealth and they are recollecting items from childhood)
Cyber Sec:  HACK  +1.9% (This isn't going away any time soon)

If Cllinton wins the presidency ROBO, PPLT, and HACK may have good rises.  She will try to do something with minimum wages which will just shoot automation forward.  Without a doubt she will push for higher energy costs which will drive precious metals mining costs very high.  And with all the email hacks releasing information on her self dealing  is there any doubt she is going to pour tons of money into cyber security companies? 

While I'm lukewarm on Dave & Busters as the future seems a little more personalized and at home with VR, it is amazing how many adults still want an arcade. I'm right with you on the other 3.

I also think the Gen X trends will continue as people will want to escape from the real world under either Clinton or Trump.  We have seen Disney nearly triple in price driven by Marvel Comics and Star Wars.  But there are still a lot of other iconic brands which are just now getting promoted.   If HASBRO does another short term dip that might be a good pickup.  Brands like Dungeons and Dragons and Magic the Gathering are showing signs of life.  The only reason they haven't shot up dramatically is the management at Wizards of the Coast is dreadful, alienating their core targets via a bunch of social justice nonsense.  I just fear that WoTC will do the same thing Sony did with Ghostbusters and just decimate the franchise.  It looks like they lost about $100 million on the failed reboot.

Right now I am trying to find good (i.e. pure play) ways to invest in AI and voice interaction.  Again, these will have big boosts with minimum wage hikes.  Anyone have suggestions?

I'm buying Disney on its pullback. Every time my nephews, niece, and daughter get a new toy the back of the box has Disney on it. And it seems with Star Wars you get to write your own ticket no matter what (there was only one good one). WotC has always been poorly run (I was a competitive Magic player some years back). They took a game recommended by Mensa and ran it into the ground. And they couldn't make Pokemon work in its height. Yuck.

I'm a little gunshy on voice recognition. Why not just text your order while pulling up to the drive through?  Seems lie this could become an unnecessary method of communication. Who knows? As far as an AI play, I can't give a pure one but Walmart is a tempting choice. Quietly they have began self checkout, added RFID tech that could replace bar codes, and begun experimenting at Sam's Club with cell phone checkout. I suspect a massive reduction in employees and employee costs (because the compassionate people at Walmart believe their employees should be worth $15/hr). It at least makes me think when I see one company invest in disruptive technology. If we get a minimum wage hike maybe Walmart turns more profitable while all its competitors falter. Just a thought.

Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: bigbear on October 31, 2016, 12:46:14 PM
I've been buying Disney too.  As a Gen-Xer with kids, I have my share of Star Wars and Princess stuff floating around the house.

What do you guys think about TSLA?  A few years back I never pulled the trigger, and have been leery since missing the run up from $30's.  They just haven't turned the corner and have had some AI issues no doubt.  But Musk seems as much a visionary as Jobs was. 
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Smurf Hunter on October 31, 2016, 04:24:12 PM
I've been buying Disney too.  As a Gen-Xer with kids, I have my share of Star Wars and Princess stuff floating around the house.

What do you guys think about TSLA?  A few years back I never pulled the trigger, and have been leery since missing the run up from $30's.  They just haven't turned the corner and have had some AI issues no doubt.  But Musk seems as much a visionary as Jobs was.

I think TSLA is a bear.  They have no margins to work with, so even if they grew, it'd only be "mind share", probably at a loss.
But I also don't like Steve Jobs, so maybe don't listen to me.

Apple was successful because every other person owned an iPhone.  Today I don't think everyone can even say they know one person with a Tesla.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Carl on October 31, 2016, 04:30:45 PM
Tesla,just like most alternative energies...depends on government subsidies to profit ,a businessman would likely STOP that action
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Beetlebum on November 01, 2016, 10:37:25 AM
Apple was successful because every other person owned an iPhone.  Today I don't think everyone can even say they know one person with a Tesla.

I don't either, but I'm seeing them on the roads more and more. Once they finally get the model 3 into production, it will be interesting to see how it takes off...or doesn't.

I'll be honest though, I want one.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Carl on November 01, 2016, 11:06:37 AM
I don't either, but I'm seeing them on the roads more and more. Once they finally get the model 3 into production, it will be interesting to see how it takes off...or doesn't.

I'll be honest though, I want one.

There is no economy in the TESLA as there is little efficiency in converting oil,gas,coal...into electricity,distributing it
through a nearly 100 year old technology to homes and converting again to DC for charging...it ,like most 'green' energy is a fad
as it has been around struggling too long and without government subsidy ,failing. I hope that something NEW will come along
to save us all,
but when you buy your TESLA...be sure to get the optional hand crank. :sarcasm:
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: David in MN on November 01, 2016, 11:22:36 AM
Carl seems to be beating me to the punch quite a bit these days (great minds maybe). I just can't take Tesla seriously. It's a car company that moonlights as a home energy company and seems to live and die by navigating handouts and tax deductions that are subject to change. Not to put down Musk, whose ideas are revolutionary, but his companies make more headlines than products. Media buzz is great but it can be hard to tell if it's about an iphone or a Segway. Tesla has that feel like it could fold up and disappear with nothing to show kinda like Enron did.

All that is not to say that Tesla isn't producing great products and driving innovation. But I'd like some stability and a clear business model before I invest.

On the other hand, if you've followed Musk's statements and traded miners and mineral producers (like lithium mining) you're already sitting on a tidy sum.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Smurf Hunter on November 01, 2016, 01:20:00 PM

On the other hand, if you've followed Musk's statements and traded miners and mineral producers (like lithium mining) you're already sitting on a tidy sum.

You would think so...
(http://imgur.com/uijmBQo.png)

I can't find anything related to lithium mining/production is more than "ho-hum"  :(
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: David in MN on November 01, 2016, 01:42:31 PM
World's largest producer is SQM. How I played it.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: krispykreme on November 02, 2016, 09:19:34 AM
Has anyone of you guys thought of investing in real estate? Because stocks are a bit like gambling really (especially under the current circumstances). Of course real estate has its peaks and crises too but in the long run it is more reliable. For example you can rent it out and get about 5-7% as returns. The best option seems a one-bedroom apartment somewhere in the city center popular with tourists. Barcelona might be a good option https://tranio.com/spain/catalonia/barcelona/ as it is a top-notch destination for the British and the Chinese
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Smurf Hunter on November 02, 2016, 09:43:09 AM
Has anyone of you guys thought of investing in real estate? Because stocks are a bit like gambling really (especially under the current circumstances). Of course real estate has its peaks and crises too but in the long run it is more reliable. For example you can rent it out and get about 5-7% as returns. The best option seems a one-bedroom apartment somewhere in the city center popular with tourists. Barcelona might be a good option https://tranio.com/spain/catalonia/barcelona/ as it is a top-notch destination for the British and the Chinese

Years ago I read some wealth building books.  I can't recall which one, but a big theme I took away was mindset.
"Rich" is an attitude.  Give a former millionaire $10,000 and he'll turn it into 15K, 50K, etc. towards his previous level.
Give a poor person the same $10K and they blow it at walmart.

I bring this up because I think real estate investment depends on scale.  If you own a single property for rent, you will be constantly balancing your time and expenses - hoping that whatever margin you get is not gobbled up from some catastrophic repair.  Own a couple units, maybe you consider a property manager - that costs money, and might be diminishing returns if only a couple units.
Once you own a building, have a reliable management team, etc.  then things are on auto-pilot financially.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Beetlebum on November 02, 2016, 11:43:01 AM
There is no economy in the TESLA as there is little efficiency in converting oil,gas,coal...into electricity,distributing it
through a nearly 100 year old technology to homes and converting again to DC for charging...it ,like most 'green' energy is a fad
as it has been around struggling too long and without government subsidy ,failing. I hope that something NEW will come along
to save us all,
but when you buy your TESLA...be sure to get the optional hand crank. :sarcasm:

First of all Carl, you're absolutely right and I've got nothing counter to say.

I don't want one because its "green," (although conservation is admirable and I would support conservation...I certainly don't support conservation or "green" for the sake of itself) I want it because of the instantaneous torque an electric motor provides and ludicrous mode. Also because they are at the forefront of the auto revolution. And because they just look darn cool.

Oh, and hand crank is on back order...like everything else Tesla.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Smurf Hunter on November 02, 2016, 12:04:57 PM

 I want it because of the instantaneous torque an electric motor provides and ludicrous mode

No more torque "curve".  It's a straight line.  More voltage = more speed in linear fashion.

Gas engine:
(https://qph.ec.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-a69447cd5dc3409a047fcc11d1eb950c?convert_to_webp=true)

Electric engine:
(https://www.geotab.com/geoimages/blog/ice-torque-and-power-curve-2.png)


If the production, maintenance and economics of the batteries is settled, there's every reason in the world to go electric over combustion.
Thought that's a big "IF"
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: David in MN on November 09, 2016, 05:18:35 AM
It's fire sale time! The candidate Wall Street sank millions in just got beat and I suspect everything will be discounted in the coming weeks as portfolios are rebalanced without the sweetheart deals that the bankers were promised.

Whenever possible I gamble on corruption. But corruption just got dealt a heavy blow. Look in the bargain bin.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Carl on November 09, 2016, 05:22:50 AM
It's fire sale time! The candidate Wall Street sank millions in just got beat and I suspect everything will be discounted in the coming weeks as portfolios are rebalanced without the sweetheart deals that the bankers were promised.

Whenever possible I gamble on corruption. But corruption just got dealt a heavy blow. Look in the bargain bin.

The Donald is powerful enough to shake them up even before he takes office.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: David in MN on November 12, 2016, 07:07:24 AM
Well it turns out the gun stocks did a one day tumble. OK. The election caught Wall Street by surprise (like the rest of us) and the rebalance is happening. As it turns out the master level trade was shorting Grubhub (which I missed)...

http://www.siliconbeat.com/2016/11/11/grubhub-ceo-faces-backlash-anti-trump-message-employees/?yptr=yahoo

I guess my big picture is that we are possibly hitting a bear market. It's hard not to notice the pullback in well run businesses and the resulting massive yields. I'm once again finding 5% dividends and I'll sink my money into that all day long. Still there just has a "wait and see" feel trading these days.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Carl on November 12, 2016, 07:18:50 AM
Well it turns out the gun stocks did a one day tumble. OK. The election caught Wall Street by surprise (like the rest of us) and the rebalance is happening. As it turns out the master level trade was shorting Grubhub (which I missed)...

http://www.siliconbeat.com/2016/11/11/grubhub-ceo-faces-backlash-anti-trump-message-employees/?yptr=yahoo

I guess my big picture is that we are possibly hitting a bear market. It's hard not to notice the pullback in well run businesses and the resulting massive yields. I'm once again finding 5% dividends and I'll sink my money into that all day long. Still there just has a "wait and see" feel trading these days.

Remember...Change is not here but just on the horizon
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: iam4liberty on November 12, 2016, 03:18:40 PM
WotC has always been poorly run (I was a competitive Magic player some years back). They took a game recommended by Mensa and ran it into the ground. And they couldn't make Pokemon work in its height. Yuck.

Very cool.  I've been known to tap a land or two in pauper, modern, and legacy. 

The craziest thing is that the CEO of WotC who screwed up the card market is now a member of the federal reserve: http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/blog/techflash/2013/01/greg-leeds-named-to-board-of-federal.html?ana=twt (http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/blog/techflash/2013/01/greg-leeds-named-to-board-of-federal.html?ana=twt). 
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: David in MN on November 12, 2016, 09:49:38 PM
Very cool.  I've been known to tap a land or two in pauper, modern, and legacy. 

The craziest thing is that the CEO of WotC who screwed up the card market is now a member of the federal reserve: http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/blog/techflash/2013/01/greg-leeds-named-to-board-of-federal.html?ana=twt (http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/blog/techflash/2013/01/greg-leeds-named-to-board-of-federal.html?ana=twt).

I started between Legends and Dark and played off and on to Odyssey (yup I know that's long) and eventually wound up with a trunk full of cards that eventually got sold off as I hadn't touched them in years and turned into a S&W revolver and a stack of silver bullion.

If you played the game during that time and read message boards you might have read my stuff. I wrote about designing the ideal turbostasis and was a prolific black player who wrote that it was the most misunderstood color because black offered what nothing else could: temporal advantage. I played at the early Gen Con tournaments (from Milwaukee) and won several local tournaments. Once coming to MN for school I cleaned house as the local competition couldn't compete. Black taught me that in a fistfight the man willing to rip his own arm off and use it as a club to kill his opponent has won even though he is bleeding out. (Only [some] Magic players will get this).

If you're bored reading this, consider this... In middle school I played my principal in chess as I defeated all my teachers. He beat me but the games were fun. I captained the chess team and eventually had to quit in high school to run track and bodybuild. Time. But I will tell all of you that a child who learns checkers, chess, Magic, go, one who sees how the Lego pieces should fit together... These are the  introductions to strategy and design. Sierawan taught me that a knight in the third row is a knife on the jugular. Fischer taught me how to move bishops early.

If you played Magic, the first card I opened to was a "Demonic Tutor". That seems like an unfair advantage. Today I look for companies that hold that card. And I haven't played chess or Magic in years as the market has provided better income than ante ever did.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: David in MN on November 15, 2016, 02:01:06 PM
OK, so maybe the Trump play is... gold? Follow my logic. I really do believe he's going to loosen up business laws. I actually believe that for the first time in over a decade (or two) a president will firmly be pro business. Not light a match. Light a barrel of kerosene. If you think I'm crazy note how the market tanked election night and immediately rebounded better than ever.

So if the economy really gets cooking, what will we see? MASSIVE INFLATION. If Trump is right about this (and I think he is) the problem is not liquidity but regulation. But we've been trying to fix it with low interest, easy money, and printing. If industry roars to life it will bid up resources and interest rates as competition strives to grow and all that free money on the sidelines suddenly burns like a Roman candle.

I'm looking to rebalance into mining stocks, timber, oil, oil, oil, oil, builders, gold, silver, platinum, Canadian nickel, Chinese aluminum, etc.

Lots of moving parts here and this is not, nor is anything I ever post financial advice. But right now I'm starting to see a bid up of commodities as the "Trump" play.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Carl on November 15, 2016, 03:21:41 PM
I find it interesting that the people who were excited when Trump said he did not know if he would accept losing the election,
Totally could not accept him winning.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: jerseyboy on November 20, 2016, 07:18:27 PM
It's fire sale time! The candidate Wall Street sank millions in just got beat and I suspect everything will be discounted in the coming weeks as portfolios are rebalanced without the sweetheart deals that the bankers were promised.

Whenever possible I gamble on corruption. But corruption just got dealt a heavy blow. Look in the bargain bin.

Just look at Ruger (RGR) it gapped down $9 on the day after the election and continued to fall another $8 over the next two days. Right now it is still off $11 from the $64.40 close on November 8th.

Jerseyboy
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: FreeLancer on November 20, 2016, 07:51:00 PM
I really wish I'd taken wealth creation at Trump University.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Carl on November 21, 2016, 03:51:40 AM
Just look at Ruger (RGR) it gapped down $9 on the day after the election and continued to fall another $8 over the next two days. Right now it is still off $11 from the $64.40 close on November 8th.

Jerseyboy

This makes it a good time to BUY RGR.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: David in MN on November 21, 2016, 05:55:11 AM
RGR is down because the market believes that disaffected voters this election won't buy rifles. I remember driving to 3 local gun shops (not the big box) in 2012 and inventory was empty. So I bought SWHC. I don't get the same vibe today. I feel like the gun companies could come in line with earnings and lower expectations as the future looks safe for firearms.

I really wish I'd taken wealth creation at Trump University.

Just snark? Or something you now about? If it offers a window into how Trump raises capital, finances, or selects projects it could be a massive window into the future. His attitude toward banking, in particular, would be interesting to know.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Smurf Hunter on November 21, 2016, 09:41:17 AM
This makes it a good time to BUY RGR.

For sure.  The Holiday season is just getting started.  Come end of Q4 there'll report huge sales, and the stock price will race upward.  Buy now while everyone else is worried.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: David in MN on November 21, 2016, 10:39:28 AM
It will be interesting to see how the firearms industry in general responds to the election. I'm surely not surprising anyone around here by suggesting that some models (Mini 14) are specifically built to skirt regulation on the tight side. Other models (say a Sig AR pistol) skirt regulation on the fast and loose side.

With what looks to be a favorable court and legislature it feels like the go-ahead nod to start R&D on that belt fed assault shotgun or whatever crazy dream the engineers can come up with. I could well see an investment opportunity if these forums start filling up with comments about the "Ruger Dino Dropper" or the "S&W Lion Tamer".

While I don't see a lot of trade opportunity at RGR (still feel strong quarter with lowered projections) if you buy in on a dip you at least get the dividend at a bargain. Better than a sharp stick in the eye.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: jerseyboy on November 21, 2016, 03:07:05 PM
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/21/trumps-pro-second-amendment-platform-could-end-gun-sales-boom.html

Jerseyboy
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Smurf Hunter on November 22, 2016, 10:24:24 AM
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/21/trumps-pro-second-amendment-platform-could-end-gun-sales-boom.html

Jerseyboy

(http://imgur.com/uy6kOuO.jpg)

This is still America.  Maybe the "boom" will end, but it's not like Johnny and Bubba suddenly don't want new shotguns for Christmas.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: TheRetiredRancher on November 22, 2016, 02:51:54 PM
After making a mistake at the beginning and buying gold stocks the morning after the election (Ouch)  I am now going into construction equipment and looking for suitable highway, bridge, airport and ocean port construction contractors.  Deere and Cat were obvious choices to chase Trump's infrastructure construction plans for almost any heavy construction.  I am not sure about the construction companies as many of them specialize in one or two types of projects.  Granite construction (GVA) does a lot of heavy highway work or maybe a cement and aggregate company like Vulcan materials (VMC) might be a better bet as they sell to almost any construction type.  I am still searching for the right opportunity.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: jerseyboy on November 22, 2016, 06:40:15 PM
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/22/trumps-tax-infrastructure-promises-face-pushback-from-gop-lawmakers.html

Jerseyboy
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: David in MN on December 13, 2016, 01:24:05 PM
Lots going on here. The gun stocks took it in the shorts. Apparently Trump hates the aerospace sector, chiding both Boeing for the cost of a new fleet of Air Force One and Lockheed for is continued debacles on the F-35. The bright spot? Exxon Mobile.

I don't want to sound conspiratorial but any trader who knew in advance Trump's pick of Rex Tillerson or his plan to tweet about aerospace concerns was standing to retire after a week of work.

I figured there would be some shakeup in the market but this is very unusual. Most presidents are a little more guarded with their thoughts about companies.

Still working on a play here. I have a wargaming session with some friends later.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Smurf Hunter on December 13, 2016, 02:19:30 PM
Lots going on here. The gun stocks took it in the shorts. Apparently Trump hates the aerospace sector, chiding both Boeing for the cost of a new fleet of Air Force One and Lockheed for is continued debacles on the F-35. The bright spot? Exxon Mobile.

I don't want to sound conspiratorial but any trader who knew in advance Trump's pick of Rex Tillerson or his plan to tweet about aerospace concerns was standing to retire after a week of work.

I figured there would be some shakeup in the market but this is very unusual. Most presidents are a little more guarded with their thoughts about companies.

Still working on a play here. I have a wargaming session with some friends later.

But maybe "The Donald"  will make a "tremendous" deal with the Iranians and Boeing will sell them a gazillion dollars worth of aircraft.  If you knew THAT was coming, heck of a time to accumulate.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: CPT Morgan on December 13, 2016, 02:55:39 PM
But maybe "The Donald"  will make a "tremendous" deal with the Iranians and Boeing will sell them a gazillion dollars worth of aircraft.  If you knew THAT was coming, heck of a time to accumulate.

This from a guy that works for Boeing?  LOL
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: David in MN on December 13, 2016, 03:16:39 PM
This from a guy that works for Boeing?  LOL

Just to be clear, I'm the one with an aerospace engineering degree. But I've never been in the industry. Life went elsewhere...
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Smurf Hunter on December 13, 2016, 03:18:20 PM
This from a guy that works for Boeing?  LOL

I do live nearby, and know several employees, but I don't work there myself.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: CPT Morgan on December 13, 2016, 03:25:04 PM
Was just kidding guys.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Carl on December 13, 2016, 03:25:48 PM
I think that if I wanted to gamble for big returns,I would get some stock in the medical research field.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Smurf Hunter on December 13, 2016, 03:44:23 PM
I think that if I wanted to gamble for big returns,I would get some stock in the medical research field.

The internet age has been a massive boost for medical research.  They can model and analyze data in ways that were impossible just 25 years ago.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: David in MN on December 13, 2016, 04:42:30 PM
Was just kidding guys.

We know, just having fun. It's all good.

I think that if I wanted to gamble for big returns,I would get some stock in the medical research field.

I used to do a lot of biomed investing because you are essentially wagering on FDA approval and adoption. I don't think we're that far off from really good cost effective artificial hearts, lungs, and kidneys, with a stretch goal of livers, pancreases, and intestines. To the engineers these are pumps, valves, and filters. The enzyme producing organs are tougher but synthesis will happen. It's a really wild area to play in but it gives me great hope for humanity going forward. My daughter may view heart disease the way I view TB. Killed a lot of people in the past but we fixed it.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Smurf Hunter on December 13, 2016, 05:15:38 PM
I don't think we're that far off from really good cost effective artificial hearts, lungs, and kidneys, with a stretch goal of livers, pancreases, and intestines. To the engineers these are pumps, valves, and filters. The enzyme producing organs are tougher but synthesis will happen. It's a really wild area to play in but it gives me great hope for humanity going forward. My daughter may view heart disease the way I view TB. Killed a lot of people in the past but we fixed it.

As a parent of a child with a misbehaving pancreas (no insulin production) I've read up on this field a bit.  Something that is still an obstacle following transplants are the immunosuppressive drugs that usually require daily dosage for life to prevent rejection of the new organ.  In the context of a heart transplant, popping a pill twice daily seems a fine exchange for dying of heart failure.

Though with insulin dependent diabetes, while they are experimenting with transplanting islet cells (the stuff in the pancreas that makes insulin), assuming the transplant worked, the patient would be on some kind of immunosuppressive drug for life.  Many of those have side effects or possibly don't even work in all cases.   So trading insulin dependence for immunosuppressive drug dependence is not yet a great trade.

It's a bit like getting a great deal on a new car that's extremely expensive to own and insure.  Few people read far enough ahead to understand all the consequences.
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: iam4liberty on December 13, 2016, 06:22:04 PM
FYI.  If anyone bought Dave & Busters (PLAY) based on the above discussion, you should check the price.  It just hockey sticked so it might be the time to take some profit. It moved from about $32 earlier this year to about $56 today. Here is the story on why it popped: http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/12/07/restaurant-slump-dont-tell-that-to-dave-busters-en.aspx (http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/12/07/restaurant-slump-dont-tell-that-to-dave-busters-en.aspx)
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: David in MN on February 03, 2017, 08:47:01 AM
I'm seriously considering going heavily into Amazon (AMZN) on its recent pullback.

I can't be the only person unwilling to go to a mall or downtown for fear of stumbling on a violent riot peaceful protest. Black Lives Matter has blocked malls here before and the anti-Trump/pro-Trump/anti-anti-Trump/anti-pro-Trump nonsense is heating up as well.

I might want to go shopping but it gets tough when malls, freeways, streets, and parking lots are blocked by peaceful protestors. Especially when they peacefully throw rocks, light fireworks, and empty an AR into a nearby mosque. I drove by our local mosque yesterday and did a quick look around for skinheads.

Paranoid, I know. But last week for the first time I ordered clothes off Amazon rather than drive to the outlet mall. I likely paid a few bucks more and didn't stumble on the all too common serendipitous "must-have". But I avoided a public place which is high on my list right now.

I'm going to mull this over this morning. But I doubt I'm alone in not wanting to leave the house. Maybe it's timeto buy AMZN...
Title: Re: Gambling on the presidential stock market
Post by: Carl on February 03, 2017, 11:13:30 AM
  As I am not able to just go to a store,I find AMAZON to be a good way to provide almost all of my needs...even the prime pantry where I can,and do,order groceries and get retail or below prices with a flat rate (under $6) shipping along with an order that is in by 10AM is delivered the NEXT DAY without the next day cost as I must be close to a major warehouse for AMAZON. I have over 400 separate orders in a year and get FREE SHIPPING as a PRIME MEMBER . The prime membership does cost about $100 ,but has been well worth it for my situation.