Author Topic: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)  (Read 385197 times)

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #600 on: January 31, 2013, 10:35:39 AM »
Hay stocks on Dec. 1, 2012 were 76.5 million tons, the lowest point in record keeping dating back to 1957, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. The 10-year average of December hay stocks was about 106 million tons, not including figures for 2011 and 2012 because drought reduced stocks during those years. In 2011, drought in the Southern Plains drew down stocks 11 percent from 2010, while in 2012, drought in the Midwest pulled hay stocks down another 16 percent for a total decline of 25 percent since December 2010. With low hay stocks, prices are expected to continue to climb through the winter. The Cattle Site (Chicago, Ill.), Jan. 21, 2013

Areas affected - Alaska; Alabama; Arkansas; Arizona; California; Colorado; Connecticut; District of Columbia; Delaware; Florida; Georgia; Hawaii; Iowa; Idaho; Illinois; Indiana; Kansas; Kentucky; Louisiana; Massachusetts; Maryland; Maine; Michigan; Minnesota; Missouri; Mississippi; Montana; North Carolina; North Dakota; Nebraska; New Hampshire; New Jersey; New Mexico; Nevada; New York; Ohio; Oklahoma; Oregon; Pennsylvania; Rhode Island; South Carolina; South Dakota; Tennessee; Texas; Utah; Virginia; Vermont; Washington; Wisconsin; West Virginia; Wyoming


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Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #601 on: February 06, 2013, 06:19:28 PM »
Man trampled as hundreds of desperate Greeks scuffle for food
http://rt.com/news/greece-scuffle-free-food-581/

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Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #602 on: February 11, 2013, 11:02:14 AM »
http://rt.com/business/news/russia-abolish-crops-import-duties-922/

Russia might abolish cereal import duties in two months. This could lead to increases in world grain prices, according to experts. The decision would abolish duties on wheat, rye, barley and corn for a period through to August 1, 2013.

Cedar


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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #604 on: February 22, 2013, 11:07:47 AM »
As of February 12, about 56% of the United States continued to be in drought conditions. While the percentage of area in drought has declined about 5.4 percentage points since January 1, forecasts point to continued dryness in the central and southern Great Plains.

Weighted by seeded area, the hard-red winter wheat states of Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma have 50% of their wheat crop rated in poor or very poor condition compared to just 10% at this time last year. Spring rains will be especially important in the Great Plains where elevated levels of abandonment seem likely.

Cedar

Offline hoosiermom

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #605 on: February 26, 2013, 08:42:40 PM »
As of February 12, about 56% of the United States continued to be in drought conditions. While the percentage of area in drought has declined about 5.4 percentage points since January 1, forecasts point to continued dryness in the central and southern Great Plains.

Weighted by seeded area, the hard-red winter wheat states of Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma have 50% of their wheat crop rated in poor or very poor condition compared to just 10% at this time last year. Spring rains will be especially important in the Great Plains where elevated levels of abandonment seem likely.

Cedar

I think the recent snowstorms have helped those areas of Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma, at least in the drought sense.  We are technically out of a drought here in NE Indiana, but in all honesty, I think we are still behind.  Low rivers, low ponds, some ponds that have not returned, etc.  We could use a good rain.

Food prices continue to go up, and I see it mostly in the form of repackaging - same price for a lesser amount of the product.  Just trying very hard to use coupons and buy on sale.  Always, always, always on sale.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #606 on: March 15, 2013, 10:19:07 AM »

March 12, 2013 map

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: Generally 0.5 to 1.0 inches fell on the D0 areas, but the precipitation was not enough to change the intensity or coverage of the dry areas substantially for the northeast.  Moderate rains (0.5-2.0 inches) fell across central Virginia, prompting the removal of the D0 (abnormal dryness) in this region.

Dry conditions continued across Florida, prompting the expansion of D1 across Collier, Glades, and Charlotte Counties.  Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values and low water levels in Big Cypress National Preserve support the latest depiction, with burn bans being the latest impact to emerge.  Severe drought (D2) was expanded over Lake County as well.

The drought depiction across the Carolinas was left unchanged as the light rains that fell were not enough to warrant changes to the depiction.  Some streamflows have not responded to the recent (90-day) wet period.

Despite significant rains (0.5 – 3.0 inches) in the mid-West, only minor improvements were also pursued over Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.  According to some local National Weather Service employees and state climatologists, the frozen ground (10-20 inches of frozen soils) is preventing deep soil moisture recharge.  Streams and rivers rose and fell rapidly, indicting excessive runoff and lack of penetration, along with some reports of basement flooding as the water cannot go into the soil.

Southwest - Rains there exceeded 2.0 inches for a few reporting locations.  The same storm system brought some snows to higher terrain of Arizona, but not enough to significantly increase the surface water supply forecast or the reservoir storage.   Nevada and New Mexico are also experiencing very low reservoir levels, so the current depiction, which contains significant amounts of extreme drought, seems accurate.

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Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #607 on: March 15, 2013, 10:51:08 AM »
Wheat articles this morning...

"....dynamics would appear to leave the UK facing hefty wheat imports in 2013-14 too."

In January, Germany once again topped the bill as the origin of UK wheat imports, topping 100,000 tonnes for a second successive month, although purchases from Canada, another source of high protein milling wheat, fell back to 20,836 tonnes.

In December, UK imports from Canada topped 55,000 tonnes.

Imports from France, a source of softer milling wheat, were unusually high in January, reaching 61,393 tonnes, more than double the December figure.

Given the uncertainties that still exist regarding 2013 wheat production prospects in the U.S. central and southern plains for hard red winter wheat, and also for other major World wheat exporters such as Australia, Argentina, and the Black Sea Region countries, U.S. wheat prices in 2013 are likely to continue to remain high through at least the winter and early spring months.  Extremely tight U.S. corn supplies through at least late spring-early summer 2013 are also likely to provide cross market support for 2013 wheat prices. 

With risky prospects for U.S. winter wheat growing conditions in the western plains, the following analysis estimates that there is a 25% chance of a short wheat crop in the U.S. for the 2012/13 marketing year, along with a 65% probability of an average crop and a 10% probability of a large crop.  If a short wheat crop in the U.S. is combined with short wheat crops in other major World wheat exporters, then the increase in U.S. wheat exports that would likely occur could reduce U.S. wheat stocks-to-use levels down to near or even below record lows

"About 61 percent of the country is mired in a dry spell that the government says will last at least until March in states growing the most winter wheat," Bloomberg reports. In Kansas, the heartland of US wheat production, the problem is particularly bad—the entire state is in drought. Winter wheat goes dormant during the winter months before resuming growth in the spring, so it's still too early to say what the effect will be on crop yields. But in some places, damage is already severe. Rosie Meier, a grain merchandieser at the Great Bend Co-op in Great Bend, Kansas, told Bloomberg, "About 30 percent of the winter wheat in central Kansas has already failed, with further damage likely unless there is rain."

What farmers in North America are currently saying http://www.agweb.com/blog/Virtual_Wheat_Tour_234/ It should get updated soon.

But then I get reports that India, the US , the 'stans, Ukraine, Australia are doing fine in their wheat.

Cedar

** I am bookmarking http://www.uswheat.org/reports/harvest for this summer so I can find it again

Offline TexasGirl

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #608 on: March 28, 2013, 10:02:44 PM »
So, today I was in my favorite neighborhood (HEB) grocery store back home.  I'm not a big bean eater but do occasionally cook some.  Looking at the shelves, the one pound Anasazi beans were marked $2.99, this same package in the same store was $1.88 a few months ago.  Quite the hefty jump, percentage wise.  The bin was full, though.

~TG

Offline AllYouNeedIsLove

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #609 on: March 28, 2013, 10:18:34 PM »
grain prices down across the board today on the quarterly stocks report. Corn was limit down with synthetics pricing in another 20 cent fall after market. Tomorrow's planting report will be more big news for the market, but I'm 60% confident corn will NOT be limit down.

We'll see where we go from here - with record crop in SA this winter it gave the market a little bit of breathing room, but prices will start north again if we look like we're drying out in April/May time frame.

JMHO don't look like a top to me...looks like breathing room before we start a-runnin' again.

Offline kiteflyer

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #610 on: March 29, 2013, 06:20:28 AM »
So, today I was in my favorite neighborhood (HEB) grocery store back home.  I'm not a big bean eater but do occasionally cook some.  Looking at the shelves, the one pound Anasazi beans were marked $2.99, this same package in the same store was $1.88 a few months ago.  Quite the hefty jump, percentage wise.  The bin was full, though.

~TG


 Watch corn prices in April and keep your eye on Drought conditions world-wide,food is the greatest weapon,just look at N.Korea and how crazy they are!My leap logic may confuse some but then that's why we are all different in this world. Watch my six and be among knowing friends with hope there is hope!

                       kiteflyer

Offline JC2

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #611 on: March 29, 2013, 06:33:53 AM »
@kiteflyer - It is ironic you say that. I was just telling a couple of friends that the crazy talk from Korea has more to do with food than anything else. I do worry though that the young leader is backing himself into a corner that he will not be able to get out of and that will be devastating.

Offline AllYouNeedIsLove

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #612 on: March 29, 2013, 07:46:26 PM »
Interesting when you dig into the corn and soy planting intentions a bit. Corn intentions are up a bit nationwide, but are down 0.65 million acres from 80.95 to 80.3. So all of the increase in acreage is coming from low yield states, with many corn belt farmers going back to soy after many consecutive corn years (i.e. soil is pooped out). Soy is down in the corn belt too though so some of those fields are going to alfafa and/or just taken out of production.

My neighborhood wasn't even in the worst of the drought (SW Wisconsin) but a lot of guys around here aren't super excited to be planting even with corn prices at $7. I guess you last year was pretty tough on folks with the drought and all.

I always laugh when I see these big market reactions to inventory and intention reports - it's like a fart in the wind compared to weather. People make a big deal out of an extra 500,000 acres one way or another - but a bad year of weather like last year is like losing 20,000,000 acres. Literally. I gotta think we've drawn down supplies in China at this point too, and prices are just going to go higher from here. Conventional market wisdom is the opposite - as evidence by the future strip, but I don't think these prices are anywhere close to being done with their surge.

Offline Oil Lady

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #613 on: April 01, 2013, 05:09:47 AM »
@kiteflyer - It is ironic you say that. I was just telling a couple of friends that the crazy talk from Korea has more to do with food than anything else. I do worry though that the young leader is backing himself into a corner that he will not be able to get out of and that will be devastating.


I'll bet you're right. North Korea can only eat (for the most part) what it can get from the outside world. And China is happy to sell grain to North Korea (at a profit) only as long as China has a grain surplus. All news reports indicate China is hurting on grain, and so whatever they do sell to NK will be at reduced volumes and higher prices. The likely result of all this is that when China is hurting for grain, North Korea is in agony. 


Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #614 on: April 01, 2013, 09:58:37 AM »


The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: About a half-inch of precipitation fell over the drought areas in the Northeast, which was enough to offset additional degradation for at least another week.  Stream flows are close to normal for much of this region, except for northern Pennsylvania and adjacent portions of New York, where stream flow values are running between the 5th and 10th percentiles of the historical record.

As recently as January 29, 2013, 82.4 percent of Georgia was in severe drought or worse.

Missouri is experiencing its coldest March in at least 17 years. For the most part, vegetation remains dormant and evaporative rates have been kept to a minimum.



Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #615 on: April 01, 2013, 10:06:54 AM »

Missouri is experiencing its coldest March in at least 17 years. For the most part, vegetation remains dormant and evaporative rates have been kept to a minimum.

Cedar


I've noticed the same thing.   I look forward to the Redbud (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cercis_canadensis) every year.   Seems to be running behind this year.

Offline Oil Lady

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #616 on: April 01, 2013, 06:27:43 PM »

I've noticed the same thing.   I look forward to the Redbud (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cercis_canadensis) every year.   Seems to be running behind this year.


You need 3 nights in a row of temps above freezing.

Here in New England, the maple sugar season has been phenomenal this year because of the prolonged cold. Maple harvesting requires that the temps every night swing below the freezing point, and then every day to rise well above the freezing point. This yo-yo of freeze/thaw every night/day is what causes the maple sap to keep flowing up and down the tree trunks. The sap-collecting buckets will fill only when the sap is moving downward. The sun rises, warms the tree, and the sap flows upward to the dormant buds. Then the sun sets, the temps fall below freezing, and the sap sinks back down the trunk to the roots again. It's this downward flow which fills the buckets during the dead of night, so you need to get up at the crack of dawn and empty the buckets from off the trees. (I am told the buckets can also fill during the daytime when the sap is moving upward, but the downward flow from the night time cycle is supposedly more advantageous.) The sun again rises, the sap again flows back upward to the dormant buds, and  the sap will just sort of ..... hang around up in the branches all day. If the temps AGAIN drop below freezing that night, the sap AGAIN, sinks back down to the roots and fills the buckets. If there is just one night when the temps remain above freezing all night long, then the sap does NOT rush back down the trunk again into the roots, and your buckets do NOT get filled that night. No biggie. One missed night isn't a problem because tomorrow the temps will likely drop once again and give you another round of full buckets.

WHEN WILL THE BUDS FINALLY BURST INTO BLOOM????

The tree wants three consecutive day/night cycles (a full 72 hours) for the temps to remain ABOVE freezing, non-stop. Each night that the temps stay above freezing, the sap remains way up in the branches, trying to deliver food --a very high-energy sugar-laden form of food-- to the sleeping buds. And after three whole days of the sap hanging around way up top, that's when the buds wake up, take the food, the buds burst forth, and maple sugaring season is now officially over.


(I am also told that during the autumn, the freeze/thaw cycle happens again each night, but the sap that flows up and down the trunks in autumn is very bitter and not worth anyone's time.)

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #617 on: April 02, 2013, 08:25:52 AM »

You need 3 nights in a row of temps above freezing.


I did not know that.   Very cool.   In fact, after tomorrow I think our forcast just may accomodate us!   Woohoo.   Hillsides will be purple all over by this time next week!

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #618 on: April 10, 2013, 07:25:17 PM »
Plains wheat battling a deepfreeze
"It's like adding insult to injury. After a downright painful growing season in much of the Plains, now the region's winter wheat crop is feeling the sting of freezing temperatures at another critical juncture in crop development."

http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/plains-wheat-battling-a-deepfreeze_2-ar30945

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Offline Cedar

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« Last Edit: April 10, 2013, 07:38:46 PM by Cedar »

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #620 on: April 10, 2013, 07:37:02 PM »
Drought report April 2, 2013

The Northeast: Light precipitation, on the order of a few tenths of an inch, fell on most locations from Pennsylvania and New Jersey northeastward to the Canadian border, with totals approaching an inch in a few locales. Nonetheless, parts of the lower Northeast have received 2 to 4 inches less precipitation than normal since the beginning of the year, so abnormal dryness was expanded into these regions.

The Southeast: Areas of ongoing dryness from North Carolina southwestward into central Georgia generally recorded 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, with the larger amounts falling across Georgia and western South Carolina. Drought designations were unchanged in these areas. Farther south, only isolated light rain fell on southeastern Georgia and the Florida Peninsula, leading to some expansion of moderate drought in east-central and southeastern Florida. Many locations on the Florida Peninsula are 4 to 8 inches below normal since the beginning of the year, and a couple of wildfires have been reported in Collier and Miami-Dade Counties in southern Florida.

The Upper Midwest: Only a few tenths of an inch of precipitation were reported in a few areas from Illinois and Iowa northward through the Great Lakes region and Minnesota, keeping dryness and drought unchanged from last week. Most of central and northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, central and northern Iowa, and southwestern Minnesota received no measurable precipitation.

The Lower Mississippi Valley/Delta region: No appreciable precipitation fell on the Louisiana Bayou last week. Over the last six months, this region has received 8 to locally 16 inches less precipitation than normal, with deficits of 1 to locally 4 inches accumulating in the last 30 days. As a result, abnormal dryness was introduced in the region this week.

The Rockies and Intermountain West: Scattered light precipitation fell on the northern half of the Plains and central sections of the Intermountain West, including most of the Great Basin. Most other locations reported no measurable precipitation. D0 conditions were extended into southeastern Washington, where precipitation shortfalls now exceed 2 inches since the beginning of the year, with deficits reaching up to 6 inches in some of the higher elevations. In other areas, dryness and drought remained the same as last week.

Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #621 on: April 10, 2013, 07:56:57 PM »
Sugar & Sweetners Outlook http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/1059159/sssm295.pdf

Vegetables and Pulses Outlook: http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/1068084/vgs-353.pdf
Weather impacted production of fresh vegetables in U.S. desert growing regions, Mexico and Florida in early 2013 and February shipments of fresh market vegetables were 14 percent below comparable levels from the previous year. The first quarter 2013 grower price index for all vegetables is up 83 percent compared with the first quarter of 2012 and up almost 60 percent above fourth quarter 2012

Fruit and Tree Nut Outlook: http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/1066996/fts-355.pdf
Warm, dry weather reduces total U.S. citrus production in 2012/13.

Livestock, Dairy, & Poultry Outlook: http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/1058622/ldpm225.pdf

Cedar

Offline cheryl1

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #622 on: April 11, 2013, 05:36:21 PM »
Just heard from the grain elevator gal that corn and bean prices should stay high this year. Apparently the ground is still frozen 6 inches down over much if the plains, so all this spring moisture is running off and not helping soil saturation.

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #623 on: May 17, 2013, 11:25:45 AM »
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2012/oct/14/un-global-food-crisis-warning
"With food consumption exceeding the amount grown for six of the past 11 years, countries have run down reserves from an average of 107 days of consumption 10 years ago to under 74 days recently. -- his year, for the sixth time in 11 years, the world will consume more food than it produces, largely because of extreme weather in the US and other major food-exporting countries. " (It is under that now -- this was written 7 months ago)

""Food shortages undermined earlier civilisations. We are on the same path. Each country is now fending for itself. The world is living one year to the next."

Egypt http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-09/egypt-s-wheat-farmers-hobbled-by-fuel-shortages-as-silos-run-low.html

Israel The drought conditions that impacted southern Israel during the winter of 2012/13 will reduce the MY 2013/14 harvest by 40 percent

Russia/Ukraine - Russian feed wheat prices are expected to reach new highs this year due to tight supply and worsening prospects for the 2013 winter crops. This winter's grain harvest may be hurt by cold weather with a lack of snow in some parts of Russia's "bread basket" regions, according to SovEcon. The percentage of plantings, deemed to be in a poor state, does not exceed 8-9% as of now.

USA - As of May 12, 2013, only 43 percent of the nation’s spring wheat crop had been seeded, compared with a five-year average of 63%. Not surprisingly planting was most delayed in states that had very late winters. In Minnesota only 19 percent was seeded and in North Dakota only 26%. "If wheat is not planted by the first or second week in May, yields start falling off," says Krueger. "I suspect we are already at that point."

USDA’s recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released May 10 showed that hard red winter wheat production fell sharply due to persistent drought, particularly in western Kansas.

As of May 5, 2013, 12 percent of the U.S. corn crop was planted – only 8 percent in Iowa, 7 percent in Illinois and 8 percent in Indiana.”

Total U.S. wheat use for 2013-14 is projected to drop 7 percent below the previous year. USDA cut projected feed and residual use for wheat by 70 million bushels, noting that larger supplies and lower prices for feed grains in 2013-14 will likely limit wheat feeding by late summer.

China - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-07/china-s-coldest-winter-in-28-years-hurts-wheat-crop-center-says.html

EU-27 Oilseeds area in MY 2012/13 is forecast to decrease by 1.8 percent and is expected to total 11.4 million ha. The 4 percent decline rapeseed acreage is caused by unfavorably wet planting conditions (Denmark), winterkill (mainly in Bulgaria and Hungary), and drought (Romania). A marginal increase of sunflower area is projected due to re-sowing of rapeseed winterkill areas. Soybeans, which are not widely planted in the EU, are also expected to decline by 5 percent.
Not food, but food is mentioned http://www.france24.com/en/20130517-excessive-demand-wipes-out-venezuala-toilet-paper

http://www.fao.org/docrep/017/al998e/al998e.pdf

Cedar

Offline cheryl1

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #624 on: May 17, 2013, 02:45:01 PM »
We're about 1/2 done planting, but now rained out for the rest of the day. Honestly, I'm glad for the break.

Offline CharlesH

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #625 on: May 17, 2013, 05:51:02 PM »
We're about 1/2 done planting, but now rained out for the rest of the day. Honestly, I'm glad for the break.

I'm ready for a break myself.  We've had good planting weather for three weeks now.  On the plus side I've got in a 20 acre hayfield and my garden is mostly done.  But I'm exhausted!

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #626 on: June 10, 2013, 07:34:17 PM »
May 26 – June 1, 2013 US Crop Reports
Heavy rain and strong thunderstorms battered the nation’s mid-section, sharply limiting fieldwork and causing localized wind damage. Weekly rainfall totaled 4 inches or more in a broad region centered on the middle Mississippi and lower Missouri Valleys, bringing renewed flooding to some of the same areas that had experienced high water levels in April. In advance of thelatest round of stormy weather, corn planting neared completion in the eastern Corn Belt. However, the remainder of the Midwest continued to struggle to plant remaining acreage, including a substantial portion of the soybean crop. Heavy rain also soaked the northern Plains, similarly halting
fieldwork.  weather (weekly temperatures up to 10°F above normal) aggravated the effects of the southern High Plains’ drought, entering its third year.

EUROPE:
Below-normal temperatures and widespread heavy rain caused lowland flooding, halted fieldwork, and slowed crop development.

FSU-WESTERN:
Showers and thunderstorms provided much-needed soil moisture and heat relief to winter wheat, although heat and pockets of dryness maintained crop stress in some southern wheat areas.

EAST ASIA:
Unwelcomed showers raised quality concerns for mature winter wheat on the North China Plain, while more rain is needed for corn establishment in northeastern China.

SOUTHEAST ASIA:
The monsoon remained weak across Indochina as more rain is needed to maintain current rice prospects.


In North America, the outlook in the United States is less favourable than among the other major wheat producing countries: although good precipitation in February has greatly improved the outlook in previously drought-affected winter wheat areas, it is likely too late for the stressed crops to make a full recovery.

U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are projected at 2,917 million bushels, down 7 percent from 2012/13. The survey-based forecast for winter wheat production is down 10 percent with the lowest harvested-to-planted ratio since 2006/07 and lower yields as persistent drought and April freezes reduce crop prospects in the southern and central Plains.Partly offsetting is higher forecast Soft Red Winter wheat production with higher area. Spring wheat production for 2013/14 is projected to decline 8 percent as reduced durum area and a return to trend yields reduce prospects for durum and other spring wheat.

RICE:
Tighter U.S. 2013/14 all rice supplies, forecast down 6 percent from2012/13 and lower projected use, down 7 percent from 2012/13 result in ending stocks that are down 3 per cent from the previous year. Beginning stocks and production for 2013/14 are both forecast lower from a year ago, while imports are forecast 5 percent larger. U.S. rice production for2013/14 is projected at 189. 5 million cwt, down 5 percent from 2012/13.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
Tighter cattle supplies and potential heifer retention during late 2013 and into 2014 are expected to limit cattle available for placement, thereby reducing fed cattle slaughter in 2014. Lower cow numbers and herd rebuilding will also limit non-fed beef production.

The initial 2013/14 world cotton projections show world ending stocks of nearly 93 million bales, the third consecutive seasonal record, as China’s policy of stockpiling cotton in its national reserve is assumed to continue.

FAO’s latest estimates indicate that 36 countries around the world are in need of external assistance for food as a result of crop failures, conflict or insecurity, natural disasters, and high domestic food prices.

Cedar

Offline Louisiana Suvivor

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #627 on: June 10, 2013, 07:43:54 PM »
Not very good news......for all you game of thrones fans: winter is coming

Offline CharlesH

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #628 on: June 10, 2013, 08:38:45 PM »
Who reports this?  It sounds a bit too pessimistic to me.  Every year has areas that have trouble with weather and areas that are blessed.  Last year's woes were a bit more widespread than normal but my sense is this year is a bit better.  We are actually doing well in Mchigan and fruit crops will probably be near records.  As far as I can tell most folks were able to get in all their corn and beans as well, though it was a little late because of the much needed rain earlier in the spring.  Also, hay is being cut and prices for hay are back to normal.  I won't be surprised if cattlemen start to rebuild herd size, but again, herd size always varies and keeping back cows that would normally be culled happens (not sure why they pointed to heifer retention, around here we normally keep our heifers and cull our older females).
 
Do my anecdotes mean everything is fine?  Not at all.  I offer them just to make the point that the news is rarely all good or all bad.  I have serious long term concerns about the viability of modern agriculture, but for this year at least, I think things are moving along about normal for the planet.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #629 on: June 10, 2013, 09:55:46 PM »
Who reports this?  It sounds a bit too pessimistic to me.  Every year has areas that have trouble with weather and areas that are blessed. 

I get this off of several Ag report agencies which I tend to look at once a week or so.
http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome?navid=AGENCY_REPORTS
http://www.fao.org/home/en/
http://www.indexmundi.com/
http://www.agweb.com/
http://brownfieldagnews.com/
http://www.agriculture.com/http://www.northernag.net/AGNews.aspx
http://www.fwi.co.uk/
http://www.agra-net.com/portal2/home.jsp?template=productpage&pubid=ag002
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
http://drought.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/drought.html?map=%2Fwww%2Fdrought%2Fweb_pages%2Fdrought.map&program=%2Fcgi-bin%2Fmapserv&root=%2Fwww%2Fdrought2%2F&map_web_imagepath=%2Ftmp%2F&map_web_imageurl=%2Ftmp%2F&map_web_template=%2Fdrought.html
and probably a half dozen others. If I am looking for something specifically I will query the nation I am interested in and 'agriculture', '2013'. I have watched ag news since 1980 when I was in Ag Classes in High School. We subscribe to Capitol Press, several bee journals and other agricultural publications. It is true that "Every year has areas that have trouble with weather and areas that are blessed", but I look for trends and patterns of the good/bad.

I won't be surprised if cattlemen start to rebuild herd size, but again, herd size always varies and keeping back cows that would normally be culled happens (not sure why they pointed to heifer retention, around here we normally keep our heifers and cull our older females).

Because last year in over 1,000 counties in I don't remember how many states, they dumped cattle due to the drought, having to feed winter hay in July/August and no one could afford the hay or feed prices IF they would even have been able to buy them. There was a glut and low prices on beef at the markets as one county alone dumped 17,000 cattle in one week. That included breeding stock as they could not feed them, even if they could afford to feed them. Three months after dumping beef on the market, the prices did go back up. So this year and for about another 18 months they are going to save every heifer they can as they culled quality cows/heifers last year and it will take 18 months for a heifer to be old enough to breed. So add 9 months for her mother to have her.. and the 18 months until she is old enough to breed and then another 9 months for her to calve.. and then 12-18 months for that calf (presumably a steer) to make it to market weight. And this was the second year in a row to do so. So in 2011, they culled their cull cows, keeping their best back and in 2012 had to do it all over again and sell good cows as culls.
http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/in-the-news/us-drought-2012-farm-and-food-impacts.aspx#livestock
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-09/milk-cow-drought-culling-accelerates-as-prices-jump-commodities.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/13/us-usa-drought-cattle-idUSBRE86C10P20120713 The droughts in 2011/2012 helped to shrink the U.S. herd to about 91 million head, the smallest in about 60 years, while sending beef prices to record highs.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-07-24/plains-ranchers-sell-cattle-as-us-drought-spreads

Do my anecdotes mean everything is fine?  Not at all.  I offer them just to make the point that the news is rarely all good or all bad.  I have serious long term concerns about the viability of modern agriculture, but for this year at least, I think things are moving along about normal for the planet.

There is some good news.. It is just as I am concerned and watching mostly the top 10 nations which grow wheat, oats, corn and rice.. and have been closely for 3.5 years now. And with the UN now urging people to eat insects to combat world hunger.. makes one wonder why they are now just saying this when many countries have traditionally eaten insects and now pushing insects in the western world.
http://www.policymic.com/articles/47347/why-you-should-eat-insects-and-how-you-can-start
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/13/should-we-eat-more-insects-the-u-n-thinks-so/
http://www.fao.org/docrep/018/i3253e/i3253e00.htm

Cedar


« Last Edit: June 10, 2013, 10:01:52 PM by Cedar »