Author Topic: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)  (Read 386969 times)

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #390 on: August 01, 2012, 08:46:02 PM »
http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/01/us/us-usda-disaster-zones/index.html?hpt=us_t2

the USDA expanded emergency disaster assistance Wednesday to allow for haying and grazing on 3.8 million acres of protected conservation areas, once considered off-limits.

"As of July 17, approximately 88 percent of the corn crop was in regions impacted by drought." About 75% of all food found in the supermarket contains corn, officials say.

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #392 on: August 01, 2012, 09:05:42 PM »
I'm really surprised to see the maps continuing to show things as exceptionally dry in Colorado or the crop conditions continuing to deteriorate.  We've have very good rains since about the 4th of July.  Consistent productive thunderstorms to the point where our fire danger is down to low; a level hardly ever attained between May and September.  I've done one light watering in the last two weeks in my garden and things are going gangbusters. 

Offline cheryl1

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #393 on: August 02, 2012, 09:23:00 AM »
I'm really surprised to see the maps continuing to show things as exceptionally dry in Colorado or the crop conditions continuing to deteriorate.  We've have very good rains since about the 4th of July.  Consistent productive thunderstorms to the point where our fire danger is down to low; a level hardly ever attained between May and September.  I've done one light watering in the last two weeks in my garden and things are going gangbusters.
Maybe the rain wasn't at the right time for the field crops, or the heat was too high during a critical period. Field crops have different requirements than garden plants. Just a thought

Offline TexasGirl

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #394 on: August 02, 2012, 10:46:48 PM »
I'm really surprised to see the maps continuing to show things as exceptionally dry in Colorado or the crop conditions continuing to deteriorate.  We've have very good rains since about the 4th of July.  Consistent productive thunderstorms to the point where our fire danger is down to low; a level hardly ever attained between May and September.  I've done one light watering in the last two weeks in my garden and things are going gangbusters.

Endurance,

The map shows SE Texas as not being in drought conditions, despite being 14" behind on rainfall since Jan 1st.  It's been weeks since we had rain at my place.  I question what they base their drought assessments on.

~TF

Offline cohutt

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #395 on: August 03, 2012, 08:21:15 PM »
:(


Most of the people who would possibly ever care to read this thread probably will have food because we are aware and have the wits and/or resources to do so.  Or perhaps we were just dumb lucky enough to be born in a wealthy wasteful society and will manage to be floated along, albeit at a higher cost.

But the poor- not the "poor" in the US, but the real poor of the world, those for which food costs are 40 or 50% of what they can meagerly scrape up to support themselves if they are lucky, have no ability to absorb higher costs.  Higher costs and shortages don't mean they have to eat beans and rice for a while; beans and rice are what they could hardly afford before.  It means violence or starvation or both.


The following is from a multi point summary contained in a proprietary research report that I can't post here in its entirety; the subject is primarily the 5 years we've been in this developing food crisis that is likely just getting ramped up:

Quote
7.  Many of these increasing difficulties were reflected in the original 2008 food crisis and the 2011 rebound.
The last six weeks’ price rise is more threatening because it occurred despite very much larger plantings than
were available in 2008. Global demand is now so high and rising so fast and reserves are so low that price
sensitivity to weather setbacks has become extreme.

8. It seems likely that several countries dependent on foreign grain imports have in fact never recovered from
the 2008 shock. Countries like Egypt saw the percent of their consumer budget for food rise to 40%. At
this level, social pressures may be at an extreme and probably have already contributed to the Arab Spring.
Any price increases from here may cause social collapse and a wave of immigration on a scale never before
experienced in peacetime. Another doubling in grain prices would be catastrophic.

9. Strong countermeasures to prevent a food crisis would be effective in curtailing the current crisis and
preventing the development of a much greater crisis, but these measures will likely not be taken. This is
because the price signals for the rich countries are too weak – they can afford the higher price – and there is
inertia in all parts of the system. Also, the problems of malnutrition in distant countries are not generally felt
as high-order priorities in the richer countries.

10. If food pressures recur and are reinforced by fuel price increases, the risks of social collapse and global
instability increase to a point where they probably become the major source of international confrontations.
China is particularly concerned (even slightly desperate) about resource scarcity, especially food.

Yeah it is just getting better isn't it?

Cost of livin' gets so high,
Rich and poor they start to cry:
Now the weak must get strong;
They say, "Oh, what a tribulation!"
Them belly full, but we hungry;
A hungry mob is a angry mob.
A rain is fall, but the dirt it tough;
A pot is cook, but the food no 'nough.

Bob Marley- Them Belly Full

Offline DrJohn

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #396 on: August 03, 2012, 09:22:16 PM »
You just cannot make stuff this scary up.  If the rising cost and shortage of food in the 2nd and 3rd world cause mass emigration, where are thy going to go?  And if China is so worried about resources, as they should be, talk about really scary, a billion hungry and angery people, what are they capable of doing?  Bigger garden next year for sure (amongst other things!).

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #397 on: August 10, 2012, 02:59:38 PM »
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e37a491a-e2e1-11e1-a463-00144feab49a.html#axzz23B8Wrzbf

The surge in prices has revived memories of the 2007-08 food crisis, when the high cost of food triggered riots in more than 30 countries from Bangladesh to Haiti.

“We’re going to see very high prices,” said Joseph Glauber, USDA chief economist.

The failure of the US corn crop will hit the world’s food manufacturers, including Nestlé, Kraft, and Tyson, who have already warned that they will pass on higher prices to consumers.


High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e37a491a-e2e1-11e1-a463-00144feab49a.html#ixzz23BAKvaWL

Eyeing low supplies, the USDA forecast sharply lower consumption and exports, with the meat industry hit the hardest. Domestic red meat and poultry supplies will decline next year, the department said.


The worst U.S. drought in more than half a century has battered the corn and soybean crops with larger losses than expected, causing domestic stockpiles to shrivel to near bare-bones levels, government data showed on Friday.

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #399 on: August 10, 2012, 03:40:41 PM »
And I just found this... this is our 'food reserves'... which the government is SUPPOSED to have on hand....

http://www.fsa.usda.gov/Internet/FSA_File/wid2a.pdf

http://www.fsa.usda.gov/Internet/FSA_File/sellingtogovernmentusersguide.pdf

COMPARE
2012 http://www.fsa.usda.gov/Internet/FSA_File/wid2a1207.pdf
2002 http://www.fsa.usda.gov/Internet/FSA_File/wid2a0206.pdf
I also went through each July for each year. Severely changes after 2007.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-03-09/world-wheat-soybean-corn-reserves-dropping-as-demand-grows-crops-falter "Global inventories of wheat and soybeans are falling more than forecast, while U.S. corn reserves head to a 16-year low, as farmers fail to keep pace with rising demand for food, livestock feed and biofuel. " This was written in March 2012, before the drought started.

AND, then there was this... http://www.iatp.org/files/2012_07_13_IATP_GrainReservesReader.pdf

Cedar


Offline archer

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #400 on: August 10, 2012, 03:49:33 PM »
can we say 'The Hunger Games'?

Offline Outdoorfury

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #401 on: August 10, 2012, 03:56:43 PM »
damn first time i have read this and it is depressing. Time to store more food.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #402 on: August 10, 2012, 05:19:21 PM »
Yeah.. I am still working on this one today...

Beef http://beefmagazine.com/cattle-prices/expanding-drought-pushing-more-cows-slaughter



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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #403 on: August 10, 2012, 05:27:19 PM »
getting scary Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #404 on: August 10, 2012, 05:33:27 PM »
SOME good news for us short-term.. start buying beef now to January. Can it, freeze it, whatever....

http://beefmagazine.com/disaster/more-ranchers-culling-cows-drought

Somewhere in my travels today, an article said there are 800,000 less calves this year. The highest the calf shortage has ever been was 900,000 so we are close.

Cedar


Offline Frugal Upstate

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #406 on: August 10, 2012, 08:22:38 PM »
I actually logged in to see if there was any info on the status of our what crop and of course Cedar had already addressed it. 

Offline cheryl1

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #407 on: August 11, 2012, 12:00:05 PM »
A local chicken farm lost 80,000 chickens to heat stroke last week (ish). I wonder how widespread that problem is as well.

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #408 on: August 11, 2012, 05:44:56 PM »
uh. . . that should have read "wheat" not "what". 

Offline Oil Lady

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #409 on: August 11, 2012, 06:04:25 PM »
A local chicken farm lost 80,000 chickens to heat stroke last week (ish). I wonder how widespread that problem is as well.

I am googling right now for news of "80,000 chickens." Working on getting a link for your American heat wave chicken death story. But until I find YOUR story, I want to point to this other story about a recent heat wave-induced chicken die-off in South Korea. But the number of poultry deaths there exceeded a quarter milllion in a 2-week time period.

http://view.koreaherald.com/kh/view.php?ud=20120806001243&cpv=0
 
Quote
Heat wave in South Korea kills more than 341,000 poultry

2012-08-06 

...

The scorching temperatures killed 330,500 chickens and 10,700 ducks as well as 96 pigs across the country between July 20 and Aug. 6, said Kim Il-soo, an official of the Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

Last week, a power outage stopped a ventilation system at a farm in Goesan, killing about 10,000 out of 80,000 chickens, according to local officials....







::EDIT::





Sorry, Cheryl. I am striking out in my effort to find a story taking place in America where a mass chicken die-off resulted from the heat. Only this Korean story.  Do you recall where you heard it or read it?? Are you sure it was an American chicken die-off? 




Meanwhile I found this Wall Street Journal blogger who commented on the Korean poultry die-off, and he had a few very eye-opening factoids to report: 


http://blogs.wsj.com/korearealtime/2012/08/06/power-supplies-short-as-heatwave-takes-toll/


-- On Sunday, the mercury hit 36.7 Celsius in Seoul – the hottest day in 18 years.

-- The Ministry of Knowledge Economy this morning notched up its power shortage alert to the same level that was seen during a rolling blackout last September, citing a surge in energy consumption due to the heat wave.

-- To help with power supplies, the government will restart the country’s oldest nuclear-power plant this week following a five-month shutdown following a brief power outage in February.

-- The unusual heat has taken its toll. So far 11 people are reported to have died and more than 660 have been admitted to hospital due to heat-related symptoms.

-- Over 100,000 livestock, mostly chicken and duck, have died in the intense heat, according to the Ministry of Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

-- Apartment complexes in southern Seoul suffered a brief blackout on Sunday night. About 3,000 households were affected, though no serious damage was reported.

-- A recent study by the National Institute of Meterological Research cited heat as the single biggest natural phenomena, including natural disasters, causing human death in South Korea. The research tracked damage done by natural disasters, including floods and typhoons, from 1901 to 2008 and found that the natural-disaster-induced death toll was the highest in 1994 when a heat wave took 3,384 people’s lives. That was more than triple the number in 1936 when 1,104 people died due to a typhoon. In the summer of 1994, the temperature surpassed 33 Celsius for 29 successive days.




.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2012, 06:18:34 PM by Oil Lady »

Offline JC2

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #410 on: August 11, 2012, 10:54:23 PM »
My loving wife makes and sends me homemade jerky occasionally. The last roast she bought
 Of course last year there was a large beef sell off because of the hay (which i think has already been forgotten by most) and now the sell off this year. I hate to see the beef prices next year.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2012, 11:10:04 PM by james.carpenter2 »

Offline TexasGirl

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #411 on: August 11, 2012, 11:21:56 PM »
I canned 72 pints of beef in the last month, much was hamburger meat.  Our local grocer had a loss leader; lean ground chuck for $1.67/ lb.  The meat girl grinds it fresh in the store, so you can see what goes into it.  Two 5-6oz pieces of NY Strip fit in a widemouth pint jar, NY's were on for $2.97/ lb one week.

How long can we expect prices to stay down?  September?  October?

~TG

Offline cheryl1

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #412 on: August 12, 2012, 04:41:24 AM »
Sorry, Cheryl. I am striking out in my effort to find a story taking place in America where a mass chicken die-off resulted from the heat. Only this Korean story.  Do you recall where you heard it or read it?? Are you sure it was an American chicken die-off?  [/quote]

I don't think it made the news. My husband was at a local farmer's meeting and had a conversation with someone who had to spend 3 DAYS hauling dead chickens out of cages. We have some large hog and chicken farms in the area here. I don't know which farm it was, the guy just said it took him and his men three long hot days to clean up the mess, and they lost about 1/3 of their stock.

Offline Oil Lady

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #413 on: August 12, 2012, 05:58:24 AM »
Quote
Sorry, Cheryl. I am striking out in my effort to find a story taking place in America where a mass chicken die-off resulted from the heat. Only this Korean story.  Do you recall where you heard it or read it?? Are you sure it was an American chicken die-off? 

I don't think it made the news. My husband was at a local farmer's meeting and had a conversation with someone who had to spend 3 DAYS hauling dead chickens out of cages. We have some large hog and chicken farms in the area here. I don't know which farm it was, the guy just said it took him and his men three long hot days to clean up the mess, and they lost about 1/3 of their stock.

Wow. Okay. i TOTALLY get it now. (And I'm kinda pissed that the MSM is not reporting on it. Thank God for the internet.)

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #414 on: August 12, 2012, 10:23:13 PM »
http://article.wn.com/view/2012/07/03/Virginia_poultry_farms_report_hundreds_of_thousands_birds_dy/
2012-07-03: HARRISONBURG, Va. (AP) — Hundreds of thousands of chickens and turkeys have died in Virginia since a violent storm swept through the state, snuffing power in its path. President Hobey Bauhan of the Virginia Poultry Federation says the poultry died from extreme heat after the storm cut power to fans that cool chicken and turkey houses. Most of the poultry losses occurred in the Shenandoah Valley, but producers in other parts of the state such as Southside also reported the death of birds. Virginia is among the biggest poultry producers in the nation, raising 250 million chickens and up to 18 million turkeys.

http://www.agweek.com/event/article/id/18765/
WICHITA, Kan. — A heat wave that has pushed temperatures well over 100 degrees has killed tens of thousands of turkeys and chickens in Kansas and North Carolina and left farmers across the lower part of the country struggling to cool off their flocks.

In North Carolina, about 50,000 chickens died at a farm after the power went off for less than an hour. In Kansas, one couple lost 4,300 turkeys that took 26 hours to bury.


http://article.wn.com/view/2012/07/07/Poultry_farmers_in_Delaware_Maryland_Virginia_brace_for_chic/



and found this in my travels.. http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/26439/midwest-drought-costs-georgia-poultry-producers-big-bucks

Cedar
« Last Edit: August 12, 2012, 10:42:14 PM by Cedar »

Offline Cedar

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Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #416 on: August 13, 2012, 06:32:22 AM »
wow, when it gets too hot here, my girls go find a nice tree to sit under or take a refreshing (???) dirt bath.  one more reason raising your own is healthier and nicer to the chickens.

Offline Oil Lady

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #417 on: August 13, 2012, 07:29:11 AM »
Thanks for all those awesome links, Cedar.

Meanwhie, I don't want to undermine the seriosness of this travesty --all those poor suffering animals, all those farmers who have lost income (I hope some or all of them had some kind of insurance).

But ....

In the midst of this poultry catastrophe, I can't help but recall these two old Colbert Report video clips from January of 2009 (over 3 years ago). 

Enjoy.  8)

Part 1:
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/217076/january-28-2009/countdown-to-atomic-disaster---the-wing-ageddon

Part 2:
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/217138/january-29-2009/sport-report---chicken-wing-spokesman-richard-lobb


Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #418 on: August 13, 2012, 10:34:00 AM »
wow, when it gets too hot here, my girls go find a nice tree to sit under or take a refreshing (???) dirt bath.  one more reason raising your own is healthier and nicer to the chickens.

When I was looking up those other sites, alot of the small poultry homeflock raisers were losing chickens from the heat too..

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
« Reply #419 on: August 13, 2012, 11:39:25 AM »
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/13/us-drought-canada-crops-farmers_n_1771950.html

Already, feedlots in Texas are taking the rare step of buying usually much higher-priced Canadian wheat to fatten cattle, given limited supplies of U.S. corn available.

Southeastern U.S. chicken producers are looking to import corn from Brazil, while feedlots in the U.S. plains are looking to Canada for wheat and to Brazil and Argentina for corn as substitutes for U.S. corn, Miller said.

"..... I would say we won't have a huge supply of feed wheat, but it's just a matter of pricing," he said. "Most of it should go into food channels but you never know."


Cedar