Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)

[mountainmoma]

I looked at the long term weather forcast for up to March 2015. Your area above average for dryness and above average for temperatures. Hopefully the weatherman at NOAA is wrong, but plan for the worst.

Cedar

I agree --- now, the other people round have a tendency to not look at the larger picture but think--- hey -- it rained !! Now, if it doesnt rain again for a while, they will start to pay attention

It is HOT right now. We had trouble falling asleep as it was 75'F downstairs and pretty darn hot up in ur lofts under the eaves.

My eldest is driving down saturday for the week -- I should warn her to bring her shorts

[Cedar]

California drought hits San Mateo County coast particularly hard
http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/California-drought-hits-San-Mateo-County-coast-5896053.php

California Chinook salmon fall run slowed amid warm weather, drought
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/18/us-usa-california-salmon-idUSKCN0J203Q20141118

California drought so bad, more residents forced to bathe out of buckets
http://www.catholic.org/news/green/story.php?id=57672

Cedar

[Cedar]

Nicaraguans told to eat iguanas as drought threatens food crisis. Lizard diet ridiculed but Central America’s poorest country is facing hunger because of poor harvests and rising food prices. Nicaraguans struggling to afford meat as the country suffers its worst drought in 32 years should consider raising and eating iguanas, a government expert has suggested.
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/aug/15/nicaraguans-iguanas-drought-food-crisis

The world’s biggest chocolate-maker says we’re running out of chocolate
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/11/15/the-worlds-biggest-chocolate-maker-says-were-running-out-of-chocolate/

Russian Inflation Hits Its Highest Level In 3 Years Amid First Signs Of Food Shortages
http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-inflation-hits-8-and-there-are-food-shortages-2014-10#ixzz3JNx7fWOG

Kansas Farmers Irrigating More Acres
http://www.agweb.com/article/kansas-farmers-irrigating-more-acres-associated-press/

Farmer comments from around the US this week
http://www.agweb.com/blog/Crop_Comments_137/

Cedar

[Morning Sunshine]

The world’s biggest chocolate-maker says we’re running out of chocolate
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/11/15/the-worlds-biggest-chocolate-maker-says-were-running-out-of-chocolate/
Cedar

and now I know the end is nigh.  The end of chocolate = TEOTWAWKI

[kiteflyer]

and now I know the end is nigh.  The end of chocolate = TEOTWAWKI

    It's The Chinese demanding to live like the westerns have the last fifty years. Don't worry some chemist will make the taste artificially however it will have very little natural Flavonoids for nutrition.

                                                              kiteflyer

[Cedar]

California's current drought is the worst in at least 1,200 years.


Cedar

[CharlesH]

But improving somewhat, right?  I saw some maps this week from the Climate Prediction Center that showed most of the state on an upswing.

[Cedar]

In November 2014, continues to grip regions of each continent.  Asia saw drought continue or intensify both in the extreme east and west of the continent.  Some much needed rain came to northern China and Mongolia, slightly easing drought conditions there. In Thailand, drought has reduced the sugar crop. In Africa, drought continues to intensify in the extreme south and on Madagascar. In North America, drought continues in the U.S. Southwest and Southern Plains.  In South America, drought eased slightly in eastern Brazil, which is still struggling with water shortages. Sao Paulo city began tapping its technical reserve of water, a 60-day supply, on November 19.  In Europe, drought intensified again in the east. In Australia, drought continues to intensify in the southern and central part of the continent. The country is releasing aid to Queensland and New South Wales farmers as they suffer through their worst dry spell since records were kept.

Cedar

[Josh the Aspie]

The world’s biggest chocolate-maker says we’re running out of chocolate
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/11/15/the-worlds-biggest-chocolate-maker-says-were-running-out-of-chocolate/

   NNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

Not my chocolate!!!!!   

[Cedar]

Updated Drought Map



Cedar

[Cedar]

Three month outlook

Temps


Precipitation


Cedar

[Cedar]

- According to USDA, 2015 U.S. winter wheat planting was 40.452 million acres, from the 2014 total

Illinois: 550,000 acres, down 26% from 740,000 in 2014
Indiana: 360,000 acres, down 8% from 390,000 in 2014
Iowa: 24,000 acres, down 8% from 26,000 in 2014
Michigan: 500,000 acres, down 12% from 570,000 in 2014
Minnesota: 48,000 acres, up 14% from 42,000 in 2014
Missouri: 650,000 acres, down 26% from 880,000 in 2014
Nebraska: 1.7 million acres, up 10% from 1.55 million in 2014
Ohio: 540,000 acres, down 13% from 620,000 in 2014
South Dakota: 1.48 million acres, up 22% from 1.21 million in 2014
Wisconsin: 230,000 acres, down 22% from 295,000 in 2014

Cedar

[Cedar]

Rice:
The U.S. 2014/15 rice crop is estimated at 221.0 million cwt, down fractionally from the previous estimate.  Average yield is estimated at 7,572 pounds per acre, down 25 pounds per acre.

All rice imports for 2014/15 are increased 1.0 million cwt to 22.0 million due primarily to a large shipment of long-grain broken rice from Vietnam reported in the November trade data released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The export projection for 2014/15 is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 42.6 million due primarily to increases for Burma, Guyana, Paraguay, and Thailand.  Imports are raised for Bolivia, Haiti, Syria, and the United States.  Global rice ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 99.0 million tons, down 0.1 million from last month, and a decrease of 7.9 million from the prior year.  Ending stocks projections are lowered for Brazil and Thailand, but increased for Bangladesh and the United States.

Cedar

[Frugal Upstate]

I swear you are psychic Cedar--I was just thinking about the drought this morning and wondering how the winter wheat crops were. . .

[Cedar]

Nah.. not psychic. I check the weather often. Local, state, the US the most, but I also check the weather and crop reports worldwide every 3 or so months.

I was telling the head of my gleaners last April I would be surprised if we did not get much in for fresh fruits and veggies or field picks.. and sadly I was proved correct. We are still really low on fresh veggies and even frozen veggies. No frozen apples or berries this in 2014. No tomatoes, so I did not get to make the gallons of catsup and BBQ sauce I wanted to do..

There is always next year.. (and I am planting ALOT of tomatoes this year)...

Cedar

[Cedar]

Warm temperatures and dry topsoil conditions this month are combining to cause some concern about the condition of the U.S. winter wheat crop. Snow falling in west Texas gave partial relief to the dry conditions there, but areas of that state and Oklahoma still suffer from exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Most of Kansas and southern Nebraska are considered abnormally dry by the agency. There is precious little topsoil throughout the Wheat Belt. With temperatures topping 70 degrees in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas this week, one wonders how much of this precious moisture the crop is using, particularly as some wheat fields are awakening from their winter dormant period.
http://www.agriculture.com/crops/wheat/warm-temps-dry-conditions-cause-concern_144-ar47183

Cedar

[nkawtg]

I found an article talking "Peak Food".

"The simultaneous peaking of crops and livestock comes against a backdrop of a growing population, which is expected to reach nine billion by 2050, requiring the world to produce twice as much food by then as it does now, according to a separate study by the California Academy of Sciences."

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/have-we-reached-peak-food-shortages-loom-as-global-production-rates-slow-10009185.html

[Cedar]

I am not overly surprised.

Cedar

[suzysurvivor]

it might sound crazy but i have started adding chocolate to my food stores...without it, my corner of the world could get mighty ugly.

[mountainmoma]

I have some chocolate in my food storage, I used the foodsaver to vacume seal some organic dark chocolate chips(this particular type is from europe and is like a good chocolate bar), and some organic cocoa powder last year, these are in a bucket with a gamma seal lid, not a pound on lid, along with some similar packed popcorn. This bucket is down under the house where the temperature is much more stable than my kitchen or pantry. I checked after 1 year a few weeks ago, and this all is looking good, the super dark chocolate chips look great and fresh.

In my pantry, I also keep extra that I get to sooner. It would be bad to run out of chocolate right when the household and the community needs me to function well and cooperatively

[nkawtg]

Which causes me to ask, what is the best way to store chocolate, and how long can you store it.

[TexDaddy]

it might sound crazy but i have started adding chocolate to my food stores...without it, my corner of the world could get mighty ugly.

I never have less than 144 bars of chocolate in the house.

Which causes me to ask, what is the best way to store chocolate, and how long can you store it.

I don't know how long it will keep. The original wrappers seal it pretty tight. We just rotate through them and the one I had to day was perfectly fresh and wonderful.

[Cedar]

I have never had a bad one in storage. They will 'discolor' from the sugar bloom or fat bloom, but 100% perfectly edible. I usually store solid chocolate Easter bunnies by smashing them, and then packaging them up in Seal-A-Meal, but I don't always bother.

Cedar

[r_w]

Vacuum sealed or O2 absorbers and cool and dark, it keeps longer than you need to worry about it.  Practically indefinitely, unless you hide it really well it will get eaten before it goes bad.  Maybe by your great grandkids...

[Cedar]

California crop reports January 2015
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Other_Files/201501crppd.pdf
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/20150125crpw.pdf
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/20150111crpw.pdf

Ag Stats 2012
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/California_Ag_Statistics/Reports/2012cas-all.pdf

San Francisco gets no rain in January for the first time in 165 years


Cedar

[Cedar]

I got an email today from SSE about potatoes.. They were talking about one of my 'favorite' famine things to talk about.. the "Lumper".

"In 1845 Ireland planted about 2.1 million acres of potatoes, mostly of the variety known as "Irish Lumper" today.  In just two months time between one half & three quarters of a million acres were wiped out by P. infestans (blight)."

According to the Smithsonian, a similar famine in the United States today would kill almost 40 million people.

Cedar

[nkawtg]

I understand how Potatoes are a staple, but did the Irish put all their figurative eggs in one basket? Didn't they have other crops to sustain them?

[Cedar]

I understand how Potatoes are a staple, but did the Irish put all their figurative eggs in one basket? Didn't they have other crops to sustain them?

It was a political thing too, but once I read that the Irish ate up to 11 pounds of spuds a day. The average for all men, women, and children was a more modest 9 pounds. English colonization of Ireland forced the Irish to pay exorbitant rents and taxes, to export their crops, and to increase their dependence on the potato crop. They could not afford much meat and there was no refrigeration. With the colonialization, a tenure system was introduced into Ireland that gave Protestant landlords control of  95% of the land. Every cottage had a garden equal to an acre and a half and the farmland amounted to five acres. As the population grew, the holdings were subdivided and living standards declined. To counter overpopulation, people moved to less fertile areas were the potato was one of the few sources of food that could be grown.
http://www1.american.edu/ted/POTATO.HTM <--- Great read

They did eat other things too, but limited. It is much like what my AG instructor told me in the 1980's when I was in high school. If there was a blight to hit any one of the five varieties of wheat grown mostly then, there would be worldwide famine. They may be less varieties grown now.

http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/everyday_economics/2001/03/putting_all_your_potatoes_in_one_basket.html

Cedar

[Bonnieblue2A]

I understand how Potatoes are a staple, but did the Irish put all their figurative eggs in one basket? Didn't they have other crops to sustain them?

Really great book on the topic:  http://www.amazon.com/The-Graves-Are-Walking-Famine/dp/1250032172

NYT book review:  http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/14/books/review/the-graves-are-walking-by-john-kelly.html?_r=0

The lessons from the Irish Potato Famine  are among the best in support for establishing widespread polyculture food forests.

In regard to food prices, I've heard/read that beef prices will be heading lower after reaching market high records for the past 5 yrs. in a row.

[Cedar]

In regard to food prices, I've heard/read that beef prices will be heading lower after reaching market high records for the past 5 yrs. in a row.

I am not convinced of that. 17,000 cows a week PER COUNTY, in the hardest hit states during the drought, which was around 1,100 counties, were going to slaughter 2 years ago, and those were not just culls, those were quality animals, but send to the knackers due to the drought and lack of feed. It takes 18 months for a heifer to be old enough to be bred, then a cow has a 273 day gestation period, which is 9 months. Then most steers are killed for slaughter on the average of 18 months. So we are up to 45 months which is 3.75 years to catch up on, and the USDA estimates that there are about 95 million cows in the US right now, the lowest number since the USDA began recording cattle populations in 1973.



One of the weird things I would not have thought about, is on average, shoes have gone up 2.8% in price—likely the result of increasing leather prices. That’s because a cattle shortage in the US has driven leather prices to all-time highs.

And look at the National Drought map this from 2 days ago. I am seeing HIGH hay prices again this year.


Cedar