DOW broke 17,000

[jimhcom]

It is not the level of the market which you should concentrate on, it is its underlying fundamental's.
The market is simply a reflection of the overall economic situation, only in this case its value is artificially juiced by the fact that fixed income investments have been made a losing proposition.

The two factors that really need to be monitored are the interest rates and the chances of recession.
There is 0% chance of interest rates going down from here, and possibly a 50/50 chance of them increasing.  The chances of recession are growing every day as debt loads increase and world trade decreases.

Margin in the market has never been higher, and that is a big danger sign.  In addition, baby boomers who make up the largest demographic in the market have begun as of this year to be forced to make mandatory minimum withdrawals from their 401K's.  With millennial's financially struggling with student loans and almost a 3rd still living at home, it is doubtful they will be in position to purchase the equities that the boomers will be selling.

None of us can predict the future, but we all can assess the present and use critical thinking to calculate the most reasonable conclusion about what the evidence is telling us.... 

[David in MN]

Mr. Positivity here... I've been hitting sell points on a lot of stocks I own in the past couple weeks. P/Es are way outside a "value" model and dividends have been chased lower, many below 3%, my cutoff for consideration.

I'm mildly fascinated with Verizon (VZ) if it can win its union fight (and the era of unions is as gone as Jimmy Hoffa) and the question of why AT&T (T) is able to keep a 4% dividend. Telecoms seem like an interesting sector.

I'll also say that I'm looking real hard at S&W (SWHC) due to political pressure.

In short, if you've been active you should be up about 30% in 2016 already. I'm keeping a lot of loose cash if I see these trades widen but the year is already a winner. I'm heavier cash right now than memory serves.

Not advice.

[Smurf Hunter]

Mr. Positivity here... I've been hitting sell points on a lot of stocks I own in the past couple weeks. P/Es are way outside a "value" model and dividends have been chased lower, many below 3%, my cutoff for consideration.

I'm mildly fascinated with Verizon (VZ) if it can win its union fight (and the era of unions is as gone as Jimmy Hoffa) and the question of why AT&T (T) is able to keep a 4% dividend. Telecoms seem like an interesting sector.

I'll also say that I'm looking real hard at S&W (SWHC) due to political pressure.

In short, if you've been active you should be up about 30% in 2016 already. I'm keeping a lot of loose cash if I see these trades widen but the year is already a winner. I'm heavier cash right now than memory serves.

Not advice.

I got scared and just sold off my SWHC.  Made almost 14% - and thought best to quit while ahead.

[David in MN]

I got scared and just sold off my SWHC.  Made almost 14% - and thought best to quit while ahead.

Better than a sharp stick in the eye! 14% is nothing to regret.

[Cedar]

 9:30am - 393.16 (2.18%)
 9:31am - 419.08 (2.33%)
 9:32am - 486.19 (2.70%)
 9:33am - 497.66 (2.76%)
 9:33am - 532.35 (2.96%)
 9:42am - 435.55 (2.42%)
 9:51am - 448.32 (2.49%)
10:02am - 364.74 (2.03%)
10:58am - 398.33 (2.21%)
11:21am - 464.18 (2.58%)
11:24am - 481.06 (2.67%)
12:39pm - 499.99 (2.78%)
12:50pm - 531.77 (2.95%)
  1:07pm - 523.34 (2.91%)
  3:18pm - 639.88 (3.55%)

Cedar

[bigbear]

The day of Brexit -
The FTSE (main UK index) on 6/24... "only" down 3.15%. 

The DAX (main German index) on 6/24...  down 6.82%. 

[Cedar]

It is over 19,000 now.... crash? Or will it hit 20,000?

Cedar

[Smurf Hunter]

It is over 19,000 now.... crash? Or will it hit 20,000?

Cedar

Remember, financial experts usually track the S&P500, as it's a more accurate baseline for tracking the overall US economy than the DJIA.

https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX%3A.DJI&ei=Rbk9WPGTCcKJ2Aa355rACA

[surfivor]

 I've never really understood the stock market .. It often reminded me of some kind of modern astrology

[David in MN]

You mean the industrials are being bidded up after a surprise election where the winning candidate claimed he'd rebuild our crumbling industry? I'm stunned.

[Smurf Hunter]

I've never really understood the stock market .. It often reminded me of some kind of modern astrology

If you lived during ancient times, and your rulers made decisions regarding war/peace or when to harvest crops based on astrology, I bet you'd seek to understand it.

It might all be BS, but it impacts our lives just the same.

[Cedar]

19,819.60

Cedar

[bigbear]

The Dow broke 20,000 this morning. 

[Cedar]

Yuppers

Cedar

[osubuckeye4]

The Dow broke 20,000 this morning.

Well, the race to 20 is over... DOW narrowly edged out the national debt. Nothing but smooth sailing from here on out.

#whatcouldpossiblygowrong

[bigbear]

DOW broke 21,000 today...  Up 250+ at this point.

[Smurf Hunter]

DOW broke 21,000 today...  Up 250+ at this point.

I made some mild adjustments in the retirement accounts.  Whenever things go big quickly, I like to harvest a little off the top and keep it in a money market.  Then when things dip I've got a little cash to buy more cheap.  It's not fool proof, but it's easy to understand.

[David in MN]

I've made a lot of money this summer trading the VXX intraday. It's been a buy/short pattern. High volatility. Trader's dream. I'm a bit worried about long term stability.

If anything I wrote above makes no sense, you probably shouldn't be in the stock market. If it does, you likely made the money too.

I am building a high dividend defensive position. I'll post more.

[CharlesH]

If anything I wrote above makes no sense, you probably shouldn't be in the stock market. If it does, you likely made the money too.

 
Oops.  35 years in the market.  Bought. Held. Re-balanced once a year.  And mistakenly made a ton of money.  Never heard of that stuff you mentioned.  Just think if I'd gotten this advice at 18 and spent the last three + decades in a passbook savings account... would I be even richer???

[FreeLancer]

 
Oops.  35 years in the market.  Bought. Held. Re-balanced once a year.  And mistakenly made a ton of money.  Never heard of that stuff you mentioned.

Me, too.  Except for the 35 part, I'm probably closer to 25 years.

[David in MN]

 
Oops.  35 years in the market.  Bought. Held. Re-balanced once a year.  And mistakenly made a ton of money.  Never heard of that stuff you mentioned.  Just think if I'd gotten this advice at 18 and spent the last three + decades in a passbook savings account... would I be even richer???

Me, too.  Except for the 35 part, I'm probably closer to 25 years.

Please, please ignore what I have to say about markets and trading. It's meant for short term people. I'm nervous about 'get rich quick'. A long slow strategy is still the best. Sorry you misunderstood.

[David in MN]

Of course as I think curiosity gets the better of me. I, too have a long term portfolio. I'm holding in it such names as Celanese (CE), Diageo (DEO), Con Ed (ED), Kimberly Clark (KMB), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and the Zweig Total Return (ZTR).

Curious what you guys are winning with.

[FreeLancer]

If anything I wrote above makes no sense, you probably shouldn't be in the stock market.

See the problem with statements like that is it scares off a lot of good people who deserve the investment returns that are only available in the stock market. 

These returns are easily accessible to the rest of us in the form of stupid-simple index funds.  Absolutely no trading skills required.

[CharlesH]

Stupid simple index funds for me, too.  1/3+ S&P 500 and 1/3+ broader US Indexes and some broad internatoinal indexes.  As I approach 60 I have gradually moved towards having 1/4 in cash.  Once a year I rebalance everything to have the diversification I want.

[David in MN]

See the problem with statements like that is it scares off a lot of good people who deserve the investment returns that are only available in the stock market. 

These returns are easily accessible to the rest of us in the form of stupid-simple index funds.  Absolutely no trading skills required.

Say no more. I'll be mum on markets. I can save it for my mastermind group. I apologized. I can't do anything more. I recant anything I posted about the stock market. Clearly I was wrong and what I wrote should have no bearing on anyone ever as I was sloppy and misunderstood relating a trading position to general investing. I was trying to briefly explain the high volatility of late and how my best trades have been long/short the ultrashort. I'll keep these opinions to myself in the future.

[RitaRose1945]

 

Paying attention because all I have now is a mutual fund that I don't/wont touch and a Stash account with about 1/3 each in Moderate Mix, On Cloud Nine (cloud tech company mix), and Defending America (aerospace and defense manufacturers).

[osubuckeye4]

Say no more. I'll be mum on markets. I can save it for my mastermind group. I apologized. I can't do anything more. I recant anything I posted about the stock market. Clearly I was wrong and what I wrote should have no bearing on anyone ever as I was sloppy and misunderstood relating a trading position to general investing. I was trying to briefly explain the high volatility of late and how my best trades have been long/short the ultrashort. I'll keep these opinions to myself in the future.

You can take your fancy stock market lingo with you and....




(just trying to inject some humor) 

[bigbear]

Of course as I think curiosity gets the better of me. I, too have a long term portfolio. I'm holding in it such names as Celanese (CE), Diageo (DEO), Con Ed (ED), Kimberly Clark (KMB), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and the Zweig Total Return (ZTR).

Curious what you guys are winning with.

401k is health, tech, and div heavy.
As far as my small brokerage account - XOM, ADXS, KMI, DIS.  ADXS is a small biopharma.  Hoping for the ovarian cancer panacea...

Me, too.  Except for the 35 part, I'm probably closer to 25 years.

Freelancer - curious how you classify your bitcoin holdings?  Similar to any of the index funds held for 25 years?  "Cash"/bullion?  Doesn't matter? 

[Smurf Hunter]

Freelancer - curious how you classify your bitcoin holdings?  Similar to any of the index funds held for 25 years?  "Cash"/bullion?  Doesn't matter?

Bitcoin should be considered as FX trading in my opinion.  It's no more an investment than holding Euros, GBP or Yen, in place of US Dollars.
That said, many companies (my employer included) make insane amounts of profit by carefully pulling the levers on their foreign exchange adjustments.

[David in MN]

(just trying to inject some humor) 

I appreciate it but I'm still done. After years of posting my own strategies and thoughts in an effort to help others it's a bit irritating to be told that my ideas are literally preventing people from achieving the results they rightly deserve. That's kind of a big statement and it will stick with me.

There are other groups I am part of who more openly discuss investing. I can go there. If the consensus around here is that educating oneself to better invest is a waste of time and one can do the same with index funds, that's fine with me. Hell, I own a few that fit very specific metrics and offer something unique to my portfolio. But that involves reading the prospectus and quarterly reports and doing homework on the manager(s) so it likely won't be a popular strategy.

I've always felt that wealth building is an integral part of survival. But it's something I can do outside this forum. And that's fine.