American Meteorological Society: extreme weather events and climate change

[Mr. Bill]

I'm posting this for prepping purposes, not for political argument.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Dec 2017: Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective

For the past 6 years, the AMS has published a collection of research papers looking at extreme weather events from the previous year, and analyzing to what extent these events were affected by climate change.

The publication attempts to be unbiased:

As in past years, the papers submitted to this report are selected prior to knowing the final results of whether human-caused climate change influenced the event. The editors have and will continue to support the publication of papers that find no role for human-caused climate change because of their scientific value in both assessing attribution methodologies and in enhancing our understanding of how climate change is, and is not, impacting extremes. In this report, twenty-one of the twenty-seven papers in this edition identified climate change as a significant driver of an event, while six did not. Of the 131 papers now examined in this report over the last six years, approximately 65% have identified a role for climate change, while about 35% have not found an appreciable effect.

And of that 65%, a small fraction found that climate change decreased the likelihood or severity of an extreme weather event.

It's the remainder that should be of interest to preppers.  Here's a list of the 2016 extreme events that appear to have been worsened by climate change:

HEAT:

• Record global warmth
• Warm arctic temperatures during November–December 2016
• Record warm temperatures in France during December 2015
• Extreme warmth in Asia

HEAT AND DRYNESS:

• Record high temperature and drought, Thailand, April 2016

MARINE HEAT:

• Record warm central equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures during the 2015/16 El Niño
• Negative impact on salmon fisheries and other marine life in the California Current ecosystem
• Marine heat wave in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea
• Marine heat wave north of Australia

HEAVY PRECIPITATION:

• Extreme rainfall in the Yangtse River basin, China, June-July 2016

FROST:

• Severe frosts, Western Australia, September 2016

DROUGHT AND EL NIÑO:

• Flash droughts and El Niño intensification in southern Africa during summer 2015/2016

WILDFIRES:

• Extreme low humidity in western North America and southern Australia

CORAL BLEACHING:

• In the central equatorial Pacific during the 2015/16 El Niño
• Great Barrier Reef bleaching

The publication is 168 pages of statistical analysis, and it just came out, so I'm not critiquing the details of each paper.  But if you're interested in prepping for extreme weather, you might take this (and the previous 5 years of the publication) as a general guide.

[surfivor]

This type of thing is what I always remember about meteorologists. It applies to the topic at hand, (meteorologists) other than that I won't comment any further


http://princearthurherald.com/en/politics-2/against-carbon-taxes-613

In 2014, the American Meteorological Society surveyed its members and found that only 52 percent of the 1,821 respondents (they had invited 7,062 to participate in the survey) believed that global warming had occurred over the past 150 years and that humans were mostly to blame. Hardly the scientific consensus that many believe to exist.

[Mr. Bill]

http://princearthurherald.com/en/politics-2/against-carbon-taxes-613

In 2014, the American Meteorological Society surveyed its members and found that only 52 percent of the 1,821 respondents (they had invited 7,062 to participate in the survey) believed that global warming had occurred over the past 150 years and that humans were mostly to blame. Hardly the scientific consensus that many believe to exist.

Selective reporting.  Have a look at the survey results yourself (see table on p.6 of this PDF):

Is global warming happening?  If so, what is its cause?
52%  Yes; mostly human
10%  Yes; equally human and natural
  5%  Yes; mostly natural
11%  Yes; insufficient evidence -- some human cause
  3%  Yes; insufficient evidence -- not sure whether any human cause
  6%  Yes; insufficient evidence -- unknown cause
  0%  Yes; insufficient evidence -- no human cause
  1%  Yes; don't know cause
  7%  Don't know if global warming is happening
  4%  Global warming is not happening

So a more useful total would be 73% who believe global warming is happening and it is at least partly human-caused.  But this counts the entire 1821 people who responded to the survey, including the 800 who have no publications to their name.  Among the 1021 respondents who are actually publishing research papers, the agreement is even stronger -- about 84%.

[surfivor]

But the other angle is that there have been very catastrophic storms going back 100 years or so and meteorologists are aware of them as they study those. Those storms are never mentioned by the media. Studies may be biased because they are paid to produce findings in favor of the promoted view. The founder of the weather channel is not a believer nor some other well known meteorologists but they are always under much pressure

There are other explanations but it gets rather involved for a non-political thread, or some may be hard to prove

[Mr. Bill]

But the other angle is that there have been very catastrophic storms going back 100 years or so and meteorologists are aware of them as they study those. ...

That is the whole point of the publication I linked -- comparing current extreme weather events with earlier events.

As for the survey, for preppers I think the most important statistic is that 88% of the respondents believe global warming is occuring, from whatever cause.  Failing to prep for global warming is, in my opinion, unwise.

[Polar Bear]

We've had multiple floodings at work without the help of tropical storms or hurricanes, so I take this seriously.

[FreeLancer]

Failing to prep for global warming is, in my opinion, unwise.

Yep.

[Mr. Bill]

MODERATOR NOTE: Political discussion split off and moved to the appropriate board:
Climate change political discussion

[Cedar]

.

[iam4liberty]

So what do "global warming" preps look like?

[Mr. Bill]

So what do "global warming" preps look like?

For me, this is the first item on the 2016 extreme events list that catches my eye:

WILDFIRES:

• Extreme low humidity in western North America and southern Australia

2016 was a terrible year for wildfires in the northwestern US and southwestern Canada.  2017 was even worse, and it was also the first summer I've had medical problems from the smoke (beyond the usual burning eyes and cough).

My part of southeastern Washington doesn't get forest fires (there are no trees!).  We do get brush fires that are scary and smoky, but rarely burn down any houses.  But in summer 2017 we had huge forest fires literally in every direction from us, so that we got smoke regardless of the wind direction.

The climate forecast is for more frequent/severe periods of extreme low humidity in the region, which probably means more summers like 2016 and 2017.  So, for me, the prepping questions look like this:

• What are the medical consequences for me and my wife if we continue to live here?
• Should we install some serious air-purification equipment in the house?  And fix the leaky HVAC ducts that cause outside air to get sucked in through various gaps?
• After my dad dies, is it a good idea to move my mom to this area?
• Should we do more to control dry vegetation near the house?  How?
• When should my wife retire (which would let us move elsewhere)?
• If we move, where should we go?  We were originally thinking of western Washington, but they've had some unusually bad fires themselves.  Should we look at the Washington or Oregon coast?  Or some other part of the country?

I don't have answers yet, but those are my concerns for just this one item.

[Alan Georges]

So what do "global warming" preps look like?

For us on the flat Gulf coast: buy BOL land inland, up off of the sandy plains.  Depending on the area, this can mean anywhere from 10 to 50 miles north.  Good for hurricanes too, or if a major ice sheet suddenly decides to slide off Greenland or Antartica.

[AvenueQ]

• If we move, where should we go?  We were originally thinking of western Washington, but they've had some unusually bad fires themselves.  Should we look at the Washington or Oregon coast?  Or some other part of the country?

We never had any wildfires that I recall in Michigan where I grew up 

Then I moved to New Mexico and got chased out by one two days later. Colorado's had some bad ones recently too. Fortunately I'm moving to an area that is mostly scrub brush, though is bordered by pine forest and so smoke issues are a real possibility.

[iam4liberty]

The wildfires at the turn of the century were much worse than today.  If I remember right the great Michigan fire which wiped out the northern forest was like 2.5 million acres.  The entie northwest was also hit.  I think Oregan was like 10 million acres in total.

Maybe it is time to dig up Frank Lloyd Wrights designs again:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Fireproof_House_for_$5000

[iam4liberty]

More on the great Michigan fire:

http://absolutemichigan.com/michigan/the-great-michigan-fire-of-1871/

The Chicago Fire of 1871 gets (justifiably) a great deal of attention. Something that is not as well known is the fact that it was only one of a number of major fires across the Midwest that burned millions of acres in October of 1871 and caused over 1200 deaths. The worst of these destroyed the city of Peshtigo, Wisconsin which killed over 800 people. Michigan was dealt grievous blows from “The Fiery Fiend” as fires swept across the state, wiping out or endangering entire cities, towns and villages including Holland, Manistee, Grand Rapids, South Haven and Port Huron doing millions of dollars worth of property damage and killing hundreds.

[Applejack]

Only have one thing to say. Where is global warming? We are freezing here. Below record temps on some days and it's snowing again. We are now up to 3 inches. what happened to only 1 or inches?  It is now 20 degrees outside and getting colder. I am over snow. I am ready for spring or for global warming to start warming things up to a least 60 degrees.  That I can live with.

[Mr. Bill]

Where is global warming?

Unfairly distributed!  The warm get warmer and the cold get colder!  Only a massive government warmth-redistribution program will save us.



(Slightly more serious answer: the western US has been running a lot warmer than average.  Sorry you guys are still iced up!)

[LVWood]

Snow in Shreveport and 24 degrees.

66 here in Vegas, expecting rain Friday.

[Mr. Bill]

Fourth National Climate Assessment, from the U.S. Global Change Research Program:

Volume I (Nov 2017): Climate Science Special Report (physical science assessment)

Volume II (Nov 2018): Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States

Volume II was released today.  Obviously nobody has had time to read the whole thing yet, but here's a summary-of-the-summary from NPR: Climate Change Is Already Hurting U.S. Communities, Federal Report Says

...Climate change is "an immediate threat, not a far-off possibility," it says.

For example, large wildfires are getting more frequent because of climate change. The report notes that the area burned in wildfires nationwide each year has increased over the past 20 years, and "although projections vary by state and ecoregion, on average, the annual area burned by lightning-ignited wildfire is expected to increase by at least 30 percent by 2060."

Although California and other Western states have made headlines for deadly fires, the the report says the southeastern U.S. is also projected to suffer more wildfires.

Many regions are also experiencing more extreme rain — and ensuing floods — including the Midwest, Northeast, Southeast and Southern Great Plains, which includes Texas and Oklahoma. ...

In the Southwest, climate change is driving a particularly devious phenomenon: climate change is contributing to drought and flooding in the same place. Drought takes hold for months. When rain does fall, it's increasingly likely to come as an extreme rainstorm, which causes flash flooding and landslides. ...

[iam4liberty]

Only have one thing to say. Where is global warming? We are freezing here. Below record temps on some days and it's snowing again. We are now up to 3 inches. what happened to only 1 or inches?  It is now 20 degrees outside and getting colder. I am over snow. I am ready for spring or for global warming to start warming things up to a least 60 degrees.  That I can live with.

We are actually experiencing the second fastest DROP in temperature in modern scientific measured history.  Since early 2016 global lower atmosphere temperature as measured by satellites has dropped by over 0.6 degrees Celsius.  Why?  We dont know yet. But we also dont know why it shot up by 0.8 degrees Celsius in 1988/89. All we know is that most of the warming we have seen is being reversed.

Regarding storm intensity, even those studies which find a relationship show very small impacts.  It all comes down to choosing baselines.  For example, if one looks at a chart of hurricane wind speed and compares 2000s to 1960s, you conclude a statistically significant rise.  But if you go back further to 1920s/1930s it is not.



None of this means we shouldnt prep for weather events.  Just that it has always been important to prepare for them. 

[Mr. Bill]

Volume II (Nov 2018): Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States

The FAQ covers a lot of material:
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads/NCA4_App5_FAQ_FINAL_DRAFT.pdf
(9.6 MB PDF file)

[iam4liberty]

The FAQ covers a lot of material:
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads/NCA4_App5_FAQ_FINAL_DRAFT.pdf
(9.6 MB PDF file)

Wow, as a professional scientist I am ashamed by this document.  That they cut out all the satellite data after the early 2016 peak in Figure A5.18 is, frankly, shocking.  Why not be honest and produce a non-bias assessment which shows the now generally recgonized lower overall trend with occasional spikes?  This immediately makes it an obvious political document rather than a scientific one.  For the record here is the chart showing the complete satellite record.

[BLACK SHIRT]

The issue I have with all this "Climate Change" debate is, What do you want me to do about it?
I agree that the climate is changing. I believe it always has. I have a hard time believing humans had or have a big hand in that.
I refuse to feel guilty for having a gas powered car and not an electric.
The environmentalists dont like nuclear, coal or water power. Whats left? Wind and solar. Those can't even come close to providing the energy we need. If I could go off grid and produce all my own power I would. Right now its not practical or financially feasible. I am completely against any type of BS carbon tax. I guess my question is, what do these crazy environmentalist want me to do?

[Mr. Bill]

That they cut out all the satellite data after the early 2016 peak in Figure A5.18 is, frankly, shocking.

I don't think they "cut out" the data, it just wasn't within the timeframe of their report.  The first half of the report came out in 2017, based on data through ~2016 (or earlier in some cases), and it took them another year to come out with this impacts assessment.

Thanks for the graph, but a 2-year decline from an all-time high... I mean, look at the graph.  It's full of similar peaks and dips, but the long-term trend is still up.

The issue I have with all this "Climate Change" debate is, What do you want me to do about it?

Prepping.

Look, we're not going to prove the climate change issue one way or the other on this forum.  What I see is, there are a large number of intelligent and well-informed people who say we don't need to worry about climate change.  And there's a MUCH larger number of equally intelligent and well-informed people who say we're gonna get screwed, within our lifetimes or our children's lifetimes.

Science isn't settled by majority vote, and I sincerely hope the majority is dead wrong and we will not see their forecasts come true.

But this is a survival forum!  Look at all the incredibly unlikely scenarios we've had prepping discussions about.  The Yellowstone supervolcano.  The geomagnetic poles flipping.  A nationwide civilizational collapse with bands of looters roving the countryside.

If you don't want to call it "climate change", call it multi-year or multi-decade weather patterns.  Prepping for these is not the same as prepping for "weather events".  The timeframe is different.  You're about to buy a homestead, with the intent of living there for 20+ years -- where should you locate it?  What trees should you plant?  Can you rely on the water table or the river flow?  Do you need to adjust your plans for a long string of hot dry summers or "polar vortex" winters?  Do you have medical issues that would be affected by wildfire smoke?  Etc etc etc.

That's why I keep beating the climate change drum.  I'm not enough of an expert to critique the science, and I'm not convinced that the alarming predictions are true.  But I'm taking them seriously as a possibility.

[iam4liberty]

I don't think they "cut out" the data, it just wasn't within the timeframe of their report.  The first half of the report came out in 2017, based on data through ~2016 (or earlier in some cases), and it took them another year to come out with this impacts assessment.

Thanks for the graph, but a 2-year decline from an all-time high... I mean, look at the graph.  It's full of similar peaks and dips, but the long-term trend is still up.

Satellite data is available a couple days after the end of the month and many of the other charts included in the paper go well into 2017.  So they had to know what the data showed and made a decision to end it exactly on the month of the la nina peak of January 2016.  Very deceptive.

Actually, that there was only one record month in 20 years shows how moderate the trend has been. Under the former "concensus" model it was expected to see about 48 records set over that time.  But even more important, according to the climate models there should be no peaks like in 1998 and 2016.  Afterall co2 concentration trend is smooth.  That is why I pointed out that we dont know what is causing these.

[FreeLancer]

But this is a survival forum!  Look at all the incredibly unlikely scenarios we've had prepping discussions about.  The Yellowstone supervolcano.  The geomagnetic poles flipping.  A nationwide civilizational collapse with bands of looters roving the countryside.

If you don't want to call it "climate change", call it multi-year or multi-decade weather patterns.  Prepping for these is not the same as prepping for "weather events".  The timeframe is different.  You're about to buy a homestead, with the intent of living there for 20+ years -- where should you locate it?  What trees should you plant?  Can you rely on the water table or the river flow?  Do you need to adjust your plans for a long string of hot dry summers or "polar vortex" winters?  Do you have medical issues that would be affected by wildfire smoke?  Etc etc etc.

This^^^^^^

[iam4liberty]

This^^^^^^

Fair point.  The problem is that we get diametrically opposing prep signals when the reporting gets so muddled.  For example, if you look at the section on plants it runs the gamut from co2 is plant food so expect record crop yields to the planet is going to become a desert so expect massive crop failures and skyrocketing prices. 

So it may be better from a prepping standpoint to ignore the extreme reports based on theoretical models and instead look at empirical data on outcomes.

[iam4liberty]

LOL, I knew it was coming but didnt expect it to show up immediately.  Farmers are supposed to plan for both droughts and torrential rains.  Meanwhile, despite the NOAA forecasts of collapse, crop yields are breaking all records.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-met-climate-change-report-midwest-20181123-story,amp.html

Federal climate change report paints grim picture for Midwest

Midwest farmers will be increasingly challenged by warmer, wetter and more humid conditions from climate change...

Without technological advances in agriculture, the onslaught of high-rainfall events and higher temperatures could reduce the Midwest agricultural economy to levels last seen during the economic downturn for farmers in the 1980s.

Overall, yields from major U.S crops are expected to fall, the reports says. To adapt to the rising temperatures, substantial investments will be required, which will in turn will hurt farmers’ bottom lines.
...
“We are working to advance the ... drought forecasting,” Hohenstein said. “USDA is also partnering with seed companies to develop new cultivars of crops that are more resilient to drought. To help improve soil health and conserve water, we are providing guidance through our Midwest Regional Climate Hub on conservation practices.”

[FreeLancer]

I think a lot depends on where you live and what your history of exposure to extreme events has been in the last few decades.  Our wildfire situation out here on the Left Coast has definitely changed.  The season is hotter, drier, windier, the mountain snow packs aren't as deep in winter and disappear earlier. 

The Napa Valley fires last year, and then Paradise this year, have been a real wake up call in a state with a long history fighting wildfire.  Regardless of the ultimate reason why these fires are increasing, people are definitely rethinking how they live in the woods and I bet the actuaries at their insurance companies are crunching the numbers, too.  I have no experience in hurricane country, but I wouldn't be surprised if similar calculations are being made out there.  And I guaran-damn-tee the military is rethinking how much expensive hardware to position so close to the Gulf after getting caught flatfooted and unable to evacuate all their F22's this year.

[Bolomark]

I would hope the building codes would change more fire, tornado and flood resistant. people in Calif. putting in underground fire shelters.sad seeing a property with a swimming pool burn down. houses so close to each other. no volcano vents in the roof.
changing from stick building to insulated concrete formed house structures with a net system to strap the roof down, in tornado areas( or my favorite partial above ground bermed homes (like hobiton)
and inland BOL for all the population threatened by hurricanes.